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LHC status and plan

LHC status and plan. Osamu Jinnouchi (Tokyo Institute of Technology) Annual meeting for ILC detectors 2011/03/09-11. contents. Brief overview of the ATLAS and 2010 LHC run Skip the SM measurements (sorry!) Higgs searches in 2010 and future SUSY searches in 2010 and future

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LHC status and plan

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  1. LHC status and plan Osamu Jinnouchi (Tokyo Institute of Technology) Annual meeting for ILC detectors 2011/03/09-11

  2. contents • Brief overview of the ATLAS and 2010 LHC run • Skip the SM measurements (sorry!) • Higgs searches in 2010 and future • SUSY searches in 2010 and future • Upgrade plan of LHC/ATLAS N.B. my talk is heavily biased to ATLAS results JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  3. Very short introduction Short history of LHC pp runs: • 2009.11.23 the first collision @ 900GeV • 2009.12.14 collision at 2.36TeV (energy frontier) • 2010.03.30 started 7.0TeV run it lasted until the end of 2010 Oct. • integrated L=45 pb-1 recorded by ATLAS • established peak L=2x1032cm-2s-1 (2x 2010 target luminosity) ATLAS status • all systems >97% channels operational (LAr: due to the noise bursts and HV trips partially recovered offline) • good quality data > 94% Immediate future plan: • re-start up the 7.0TeV run in March 2011 (last week) • in 2012, continue the operation and possibility of 8.0TeV run • long planned shutdown after 2013preparing for the higher energy (13-14TeV) initial target % of good quality data JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  4. ATLAS detector performance in 2010 • Inner detector • momentum scale known to 1% level (<100GeV) • reconstruction eff > 99% (muons > 20GeV) • material distribution known better than 10% (goal is 5%) • EM Calorimeter • scale uniformity ~2% in eta, <0.7% in phi (goal is < 1%) • energy scale known to < 1% (goal is 0.1%) • electron ID efficiency known with ~1% precision • HAD Calorimeter • Jet energy scale uncertainty 4~5% (goal is 1%) • missing Et : good MC/data agreement no tail from instrumental origin after calibration with 15M minbias • MUONS • momentum scale known to 1% • momentum resolution known to rel. 10% • reconstruction eff known to 1-2% (goal is 1%) • Trigger / Data GRID transfer • Luminosity 2010 (Van der Meer scan) • final uncertainty3.2% (most of the papers used the previous estimation 11%) still room for improvements toward ultimate precision but pretty good for a first year performance Rate (2010/ design) Bunch crossing: 1MHz/40MHz Level-1: 20kHz / 75kHz Level-2: 3.5kHz / 2kHz EF: 300Hz / 200Hz GRID: 1-4GB/s / 2GB/s JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  5. Higgs Searches and Prospects (SM/MSSM) JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  6. Higgs search channels at LHC • Two main production processes • Gluon fusion (GGF) • dominates by a factor of 10 • Vector boson fusion (VBF) • characteristic signature(two forward tagging jets & rapidity) • Main decay channels • HWW • dominant at intermediate region and in high mass region • HZZ • clean signal in 4-lep final state • Hgg • low BR, important in low mass region • Hbb • high BR, large QCD background • Htt • important in low mass region, important channel for MSSM higgs JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  7. Higgs search in 2010 ATLAS data The analyses and approval processes on going for 36pb-1 : highest/fastest sensitivity, exclusion result approved in ATLAS and shown today : background estimation approved shown today rest of the channels under the approval processes (please wait for the JPS or other meetings) : exclusion result, coming soon : coming soon : a bit later : a bit later • : coming soon SM Higgs search MSSM Higgs JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  8. Jet multiplicity 0-jet  1-jet  2jet • common requirements • two opposite charge leptons (ee/mm/em) 1st > 20GeV, 2nd >15GeV • Mll > 15GeV, |Mll-MZ|>10GeV (ee/mm) • missing ET> 30GeV • separate search into 0,1,2 jet bins (>25GeV)(different productions, bkgs differ) • channel specific selections • 0-jet • pT(ll)>30GeV (Drell-Yan suppression) • 1-jet, 2-jet • b-jet veto (top suppression) • vector PT sum< 30GeV (soft gluon radiation suppression) • |mtt-mZ|>25GeV(Ztt veto) • 2-jet • VBF cuts [ATLAS-CONF-2011-005] H+0j H+1j JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  9. exclusion limits from this channel • 95% CL exclusion limit in multiples of the SM cross section, using Profile Likelihood method with a Power Constrained Limit (PCL) for the 35pb-1 2010 data • ATLAS excludes at 95% CL SM-like Higgs boson with a production cross section of 1.2 x SM (observed), 2.4 x SM (expected) at MH=160GeV [ATLAS-CONF-2011-005] This is the only higgs exclusion limit plot with data, I can show you today with the first year of 35pb-1data, we already got very close to the Tevatron limit JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  10. net samples: event with two objects passed loose photon ID [ATLAS-CONF-2011-004] • Backgrounds • Irreducible (qq,qqgg, qgqgg) • reducible • di-jet, g-jet : jet g fake • DY Zee: eg fake • Data driven bkg estimation • signal region: two photons pass isolation + tight photon selection • double sideband method to extract the compositions of the bkg samples • data-driven estimate of gg, gj, jj events in the signal region • Drell-Yan: eg fake rate estimate photon ID fail photon ID pass ETisol[GeV] Isolation for 1stg photon ID fail photon ID pass ETisol[GeV] mgg distribution for the signal region yellow band = gg (NLO) norm + (gj+jj) data driven Isolation for 2ndg JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  11. new projected sensitivity at 1fb-1 • uses observed diphoton distribution, rescaled to 2011 luminosity (1fb-1) • this channel can exclude 3.2-4.2 x SM for range MH=110-140GeV • dashed line : degraded photon energy resolution (pessimistic assumption) • similar results to previous estimation (pure simulation) • exclusion sensitivity with 37pb-1 is about to be released [ATLAS-CONF-2011-004] [ATLAS-PUB-2010-009] 7TeV 1fb-1 JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  12. SM Higgs sensitivity in 2011 and beyond [ATLAS-PUB-2011-001] • with 1fb-1 of data at 7TeV, ATLAS expects median 95% CL exclusion over the range 130-460GeV • challenge is at low mass (require 4(3)fb-1with 7(8)TeV to cover down to LEP limit, which might be possible by the end of 2012) • with integrated luminosity 5-10 fb-1, ATLAS will move towards discovery over a wide mass range expected limit in 2011 with basic scenario (1fb-1) discovery reach JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  13. SUSY Searches and Prospects JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  14. Expected SUSY signatures at LHC • R-parity conserving models • high cross sections for gluinos/squarks production • high-pT multi jets (and leptons) from cascade decays • stable LSP • large missing Et • no mass peak excess in the tail of the Meff distributionaccurate understanding of detector and bkg essential • other varieties of models are also under exploit (not shown today) • R-parity violation models (kink inside ID) • more exotic signatures (NLSP decay in detector, slow heavy ionizing particles, R-hadrons, sparticle stop in the calorimeter, etc) • Two 2010 results “OUT” from ATLAS • 0 lepton + multi(2,3,more)-jets + MET (arXiv:1102.5290) • squark→q+LSP, gluino→q+squark+LSP • QCD bkg control is critical • 1 lepton + multi(2,3,more)-jets + MET(arXive:1102.2357) • cascade includes electroweak decays • dominant bkg: ttbar, W, MC shape + normalization from data JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  15. 0 lepton analysis 4 signal regions • require exactly 0 lepton (pT>10GeV) • need to suppress QCD bkg: tight cut adopted • 1st jet > 120GeV • 2nd (+3rd ) jets >40GeV • missing ET>100GeV • dominant bkg’s: W+jets, Z(nn)+jets • 4 signal regions defined (target heavy/light qq, gg, gq) to achieve maximum reach in msq-mgl plane • optimized the cut to general MSSM assumption (massless neutralino) JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  16. 1 lepton analysis • require exactly 1 electron or 1 muon (pT>20GeV) • 1st jet >60GeV • 2nd & 3rd jets >30GeV • further requirements • Missing ET>125GeV • MT(lep,EtMiss) > 100GeV • Meff > 500GeV • Backgrounds • easier handle on QCD • top(single, pair), W +jets dominant • MC based estimate with normalization to a control region after lepton+jets cut JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  17. results in table 0 lepton No excess observed profile likelihood method to compute 95% CL upper limit non-SM cross sections [pb] A: 1.3 B: 0.35 C: 1.1 D: 0.11 1 lepton No excess observed profile likelihood method to compute 95% CL upper limit electron: 0.065 [pb] (2.2 events) muon: 0.073 [pb] (2.5 events) JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  18. interpretation in mSUGRA/CMSSM framework • not believing in mSUGRA, but it serves as the common ground for comparison across (current/previous) experiments and theories • equal squak and gluino masses, below 775/700 GeV are excluded with 95% CL for 0/1-lepton mode • exceed results from the previous (and CMS) experiments 0-lepton analysis 1-lepton analysis JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  19. SUSY discovery reach in 2011 and beyond • baseline scenario is 7TeV 1fb-1 in 2011, but 2-3 fb-1 is possible reach (Chamonix 2011) • empirical rough estimate of the SUSY 5s discovery reach in different and follows ??? ??? ( ) ATLAS/CMS excluded 3 0.9 ?? possible choice in 2012 ?? JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  20. Other Exotics Searches JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  21. quick glance for search comparisons ATLAS updates (soon) will be better or similar results to CMS exceeded Tevatron limit in the first year, no surprise yet so far JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  22. LHC/ATLAS Upgrade Plan JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  23. the 10 year technical plan(based on schedule @12.2010) 2011Jan Chamonix shutdown in 2016 most likely to be delayed (no decision yet) 7-8TeV: 4-8 fb-1 ??? shutdown (fixed) 13-14TeV: subject to change by various conditions (physics, machine) HL-LHC 13-14TeV: up to 300 fb-1 3000fb-1 by 2030 JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  24. General idea towards HL-LHC • [2011-2012] 1st physics results (Higgs 3s coverage, SUSY < 1TeV) will be accomplished with 7TeV, 5-10fb-1 • [by 2020] will cover LHC design goal with 14TeV, a few 100 fb-1 • [post 2020] further pursue: HL-LHC for 3000fb-1 • new physics search: further extension to higher mass scale • high precision measurements (Higgs couplings, SUSY masses)complementary to ILC • In any regards, the upgrade is inevitable in both LHC and Detectors • development for more intense beams • detectors have to survive the high lumi, and keep (or improve)the performance • minimize the impact to physics program & maximize the outcome  preparation for upgrade is important whatever the run schedule would be JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  25. LHC upgrade for higher intensity [2] [0] LHC injection chain (x2-3 lumi) [1] new high gradient / large aperture quadruples • Bpeak = 13-15T, b* =55cm  23cm (x2.4lumi w/ CC) • Nb-Ti (current LHC) would not be safice • US-LARP (LHC Accelerator Research Program) engaged to demonstration prototype with Nb3Sn by 2013 • KEK-CERN develops Nb3Al  technology choice ~2014 [2] RF Crab Cavities • kick beam sideway to bring the collision head-on • not yet been validated for LHC (KEKB is the only working proof on earth) [1] In both cases, Japan’s Accelerator technologies plays crucial roles: Japan-EU-US design team had been established current LHC CC new quads JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  26. ATLAS detector upgrade plan • Major items towards HL-LHC • ID: replace full ID with silicon only tracker (pixel + short strips + long strips) • CAL: Endcap electronics, Forward CAL may require upgradesthree upgrade scenarios/development on going • MUON: replacement of forward tracking MDT • TRIGGER: upgrade for L1Cal and L1Muon, and combination (e.g. non-Isolated muon) Commitments/Contributions from ATLAS-JAPAN group JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

  27. Summary • LHC 2010 run was successful • (not shown in detail though) SM measurements/ detector performance were super and more than expected with 36pb-1 • Higgs: the exclusion limits came close to Tevatron • SUSY & Exotics : significantly exceeded Tevatron limits • fruitful results (hopefully with surprises) are promising in 2011-2012 run • we are getting maximum speed for an efficient genuine collaboration works • upgrade works for HL-LHC (2020 onward) is under waycomplementary and (good) competitive to ILC JINNOUCHI LHC/ATLAS

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