André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

1. Rationale for Biofuels.”Biofuels and biodiversity – towards a sustainable use of Bio-energy”Organized by: Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University and KNAW’s Global Change CommitteeAmsterdam, 12 December 2007 André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

2. Peak oil Peak soil Peak water Peak biodiversity loss Peak population Peak GDP Climate Agriculture Energy Biodiversity Poverty & development Houston we have a problem! And it is urgent!

3. What’s it gonna be?

4. Pathway vs. climate Bron: KNMI; Dorland

5. Projections for global final energy demand for the four IPCC scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2).

6. Future world’s energy supply…(combined with 80% reduction of GHG-emissions): a portfolio of options is needed! Courtesy of IIASA Courtesy of Shell

7. Agricultural land use! • We need a lot more food (especially protein). • We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land. • Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s. • Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting; • Productivity in agriculture is awful on large parts of the globe. • Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such. • Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

8. Potential land-use pattern changes(IMAGE) [Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2005]

9. So… • Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is essential (2nd green revolution; see e.g. Fresco in collaboration with Faaij & Dijk); • This is feasible (FAO)… • …with increased water use efficiency, less land, protection of soils and better incomes. • But: what gets the money and sustainable economic activity into the rural regions?

10. International bio-energy markets developing fast… • Excitement: • entered first phases of commodity market trading (ethanol); pellets the silent suprise. • Creates unique opportunities for both producers regions as importers. • Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with development of bioenergy in rapidly developing international context. • Concerns: • Fierce international debate on sustainability; remarkably fast response from governments, companies, NGO’s. • Different interests & perspectives on governance & policy • Vulnerable stage; many barriers remain

11. Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton) Courtesy of UNCTAD

12. Traded: 3 billion litres Global production: 32 billion litres Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton) Courtesy of UNCTAD

13. More trade developments Bradley, 2006 IEA Task 40

14. Bioenergy today • 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use • 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern • ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial: • < 1 EJ electricity • ~ 2.5 EJ heat • ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that ethanol sugar cane based) • Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops and palm oil. • Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)

15. 1st Generation (EU, US) Annual crops = food crops. Limited to arable land. Potential constrained. High costs; mainly feedstock. Poor - modest GHG and env. performance. Pushed by ‘simple’ policies. 2nd generation Lignocellulosic materials. Residues, wastes, arable, pasture, marginal and degraded lands. Potential large. Strong economic outlook: technology more important. Good – excellent GHG and env. performance Demanded by more sophisticated needs Generations… 3rd generation: optimized conversion, ‘surprise feedstocks’ (…). But it will take time!

16. Perennial crops (vs. annual crops) • Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ) • Planted for 15-25 years • Low(er) intensity • Can restore soil carbon and structure • Suited for marginal/degraded lands • Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values) • Wide portfolio of species & production systems • Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity • Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous species) • Earlier development stage • Large scale and diverse experience needed • Learning curve to be exploited • Improvement potential Miscanthus x giganteus

17. Yields: perennials ~3x annual

18. GHG Balances IEA – Fulton, 2004

19. Global potentials are large…; but need to be developed Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJ Marginal lands: <60- 150 EJ Agri residues: 15-70 EJ Forest residues: <30-150 EJ Dung: 5-55 EJ Organic waste: 5 - >50 EJ TOTAL: < 250 - > 500 EJ

20. Bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass • SHF • SSF • SSCF • CBP • +BIG/CC… Major demonstrations In US/Canada, EU

21. Ethanol plants US (status 2006) Global ethanolProduction &outlook Source: John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006; green = operating, red = under construction)

22. Pre-treatment: - grinding - drying feedstock is poplar wood Gasification: - air or oxygen - pressurised or atmospheric - direct/indirect Gas cleaning: - ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot FT liquids Offgas Recycle loop FT synthesis: - slurry reactor or fixed bed Gas turbine Gas processing: - reforming - shift - CO2 removal Power Synthetic fuels from biomassBiomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine Major investments in IG-FT capacity ongoing in China right now: - Reducing dependency on oil imports! - Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions… About 50% of carbon!

23. What are we waiting for? Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project; (China) Shell gasifier arriving at site September 2006. 15 licences in China at present… Courtesy of Shell

24. Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy

25. Certification bioenergy (I): ongoing initiatives • Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations…; EC. • NGO’s: • International bodies: UNEP, UNCTAD, FAO,… • Market initiatives/multistakeholder: roundtables on palm, soy and biofuels, GGL, Electrabel,… IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2007; Biomass & Bioenergy, Forthcoming:

26. Certification bioenergy (III): concerted action… • First time that governments actually try to set ‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! -> Paradigm shift with implications for food products, fodder, materials etc. • This takes time (allow for learning). • Varying degree of concern: palm oil/soy bean/corn… most debated, other (residues, wood) are approved by most stakeholders • Methodological issues to be resolved: competition, biodiversity, a.o. • Global convergence, dialogue and deployment priority (leaders needed).

27. Biofuels roadmap (I). • Biomass resource base; the foundation: • Perennials; build experience! • Biomass resource (and land) base much more diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone. • Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials) can offer substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits when done right. • Develop biomass production in global market context (international trade & sustainability demands)

28. Biofuels roadmap (II). • 2nd generation biofuels provide the economics energy & GHG balance to be the winning option. • Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification based synfuels compete. • Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity (+CCS) • Hydrolysis units can start as ‘add-ons’ to current EtOH production capacity. • Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter term (now); for fuels on medium term (before 2015).

29. Stay with me for 4 more seconds… • Current crisis in crossing the global carrying capacity requires unprecedented action… • …and it has to be fast! • …and it will not be easy. • Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd revolution!), development (poverty!), energy (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a unique position. • We have the bioenergy options to achieve synergies (as well as the wrong ones)

30. Stay with me for 2 more seconds… • Governance is the key; across policy fields (agriculture, energy, climate, development); consistent and stable. • Policies on biofuels redesigned: from one to multiple objectives. • Moratorium on ‘temperate climate biofuels’ seems wise; save money… • …and spend it on the right biofuels.

31. "Modern bio-energy and biofuels have the potential to cover one third of the future world's energy demand on a sustainable basis and provide a key lever for much needed rural development on a global scale". “Postponing action and generating confusion is at this stage immoral”