Cause and Effect

1. Cause and Effect

2. Honda Cog Ad http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/cs/honda/051303/honda_ad.swf

3. 606 Takes? • Claim: A complicated Honda Accord commercial required 606 takes to get right and was achieved without the use of computer-generated images. Status: True. • http://www.snopes.com/autos/business/hondacog.asp

4. Check out urban legends To find out more, visit this site for researching urban legends: http://www.snopes.com/autos/business/hondacog.asp

5. Causality What causes this disease? Why can’t this computer user log on to the Internet? Why does this company have so much employee turnover? Does capital punishment really have a deterrent effect? Why are so many offenders reincarcerated after their release?

6. Types of causes • Necessary • Sufficient • Contributory

7. Necessary causes • Must be present for an effect to occur • E.g., sunlight is required to operate solar batteries

8. Sufficient causes • Can produce an effect by themselves, but other causes can also produce the same effect • E.g., a dead battery will keep your car from starting. However, an empty gas tank will have the same effect.

9. Contributory causes • Help to produce an effect but cannot do so by themselves • E.g., a driver says that he rear-ended the car ahead of him when it stopped suddenly, not admitting that his tail-gating contributed to the accident.

10. Causal Fallacies Several logical fallacies result from confusing cause with effector mistaking a contributory cause for a necessary cause.

11. Questionable Cause This logical fallacy confuses cause and effect. • A and B usually occur together. • Therefore, A causes B.

12. Questionable Cause The economy is bad because of the other party’s economic policies! —The political party that is not in power

13. Questionable Cause • Bill: "This rap stuff is always telling the kids to kill cops, do drugs, and abuse women. We ought to ban that music!" • Joe: "So, you think that getting rid of the rap music would solve the drug, violence, and sexism problems in the US?" • Bill: ”It would take care of a lot of it." • Joe: "Don't you think that most of the rap singers sing about that sort of stuff because that is what is really going on these days?

14. Ignoring a Common Cause • A and B regularly occur together. • Therefore, A causes B(without considering that A and B are caused by the same thing).

15. Ignoring a Common Cause • Dead fish and needles from pine trees are clogging the Wombat river. • Owners of the local chemical plant claim that the needles caused the fish kill. • Environmentalists believe that the plant’s toxic wastes killed both the trees and the fish.

16. Post Hoc • A occurs before B. • Therefore, A causes B.

17. Post Hoc • At night time, the street lights come on. That makes the sun go down. • Boy has no social life. Boy uses product seen in commercial. Boy meets girl.

18. Post Hoc Warrant for Sarah Good was given at Salem, February 29, 1691-2, in response to complaints of Sarah Vibber, Abigail Williams, Elizabeth Hubbard, Ann Putnam, and Jno. Vibber. Among the many depositions in witness to her malign practices were those of Samuel Abbey and wife. • Records of Salem Witchcraft, copied from the original documents, Vol. 2, pp. 41-2, old series.

19. Post Hoc • That about this Time Three Years past Wm Good and his wife Sarah Good being destitute of a house to dwell in these Deponents out of Charity; they being Poor lett them live in theirs some time untill that the said Sarah Good was of so Turbulant a Sperritt, Spitefull and so Mallitiously bent, that these Deponents could not suffer her to Live in their howse any Longer…. the winter following after the said Sarah was gone from our house we began to Loose Cattle and Lost several after an vnvsall manner, in a drupeing condition (sic) Condition and yett they would Eate: and your Deponents have Lost after that manner 17 head of Cattle within this two years besides Sheep and Hoggs, and both doe believe they Dyed by witchcraft.

20. Post Hoc • Just that very Day that the said Sarah Good was taken up, we yr Deponents had a Cow that could not rise alone, but since presently after she was taken up, the said Cow was well and could rise so well as if she had ailed nothing.

21. Insignificant Cause • A cause does contribute to an effect, but other causes are more important.

22. Insignificant Cause • McDonald’s was sued for making people fat. According to Judge Robert Sweet, ”If a person knows or should know that eating copious orders of supersized McDonald's products is unhealthy and may result in weight gain ... it is not the place of the law to protect them from their own excesses. Nobody is forced to eat at McDonald's."

23. Complex Cause • Only one cause is identified, when many causes contribute to the effect.

24. Complex Cause • The Civil War was fought over slavery. • (Slavery was a key issue, but states’ rights and the differences between Northern and Southern cultures also played key roles.)

25. What makes these fallacies? • Poor logic OR • Lack of evidence (Even if A is the cause of B,you haven’t made your caseuntil you’ve provided evidence of the causal link.)

26. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper Writers use many structures: Cause—Reasons Cause—Effects Effect—Causes Chain of Causes

27. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper No matter which structure you choose, focus on EITHER cause or effect

28. One Cause: Three Reasons • The META Group study (released April 22, 2003), found that 80 percent of business people believe that email is a more valuable communication tool than the phone. The top three reasons…

29. One Cause: Three Reasons • The top three reasons people prefer email over the phone are: • It allows communication with multiple parties • It enables more rapid communication • It allows for communication to be formally recorded

30. One Cause: Many Reasons • Stephen King’s “Why We Crave Horror Movies”Chapter 9, pp. 411-413

31. One Cause: Many Effects • It is accepted that [Bill] Gates ‘got it’ about the importance of the Internet in 1995, then wrote what would become known as “The Memo.” This eight-page document set out a new strategy for Microsoft. Everyone that mattered in Microsoft read it, and made sure they got it. Eight pages turned a super-tanker around. —Gerry McGovern

32. One Cause: Many Effects • “Gates realizes that Internet is not “playground for academics” but the next big thing • Within two years, Microsoft has developed internet software that does everything except what Java does • During the development process, Microsoft cuts corners to catch up, leading to security holes • Attempting to dominate Internet, Microsoft integrates IE with Windows and is sued under antitrust laws in 1998

33. One Effect: Many Causes • William S. Pollack“Why Boys Become Depressed”pp. 421-424 • Sarah West“The Rise of Reported Incidents of Workplace Sexual Harassment”pp. 426–430

34. One Effect, Many Causes Many people believe that slavery was the main cause of the Civil War. However, other factors, such as the controversy over states’ rights and cultural differences between the North and South, also played a significant role. I. Slavery II. States’ rights controversy III. Cultural differences

35. Chain of causes • Question 1: Why did the patient get the incorrect medicine? • Answer 1: Because the prescription was wrong. … Because the doctor made the wrong decision. … Because he did not have complete information in the patient’s chart. … Because the doctor’s assistant had not entered the latest laboratory report. … Because the receptionist forgot to pass on the results when they were phoned in by the lab technician. <http://www.qaproject.org/methods/resc&e.html>

36. A Chain of Causes By asking 'why?' repeatedly it's often possible to follow a chain of causes. A chain beginning with a front line operator who is not wearing protective gloves might go something like: • Step 1 • Q. why aren't you wearing any gloves? • A. Because they don't fit. • Step 2 • Q. Why don't you get a pair your size from the stores? • A. Because they only have one size.

37. A Chain of Causes Step 3 (In the store) • Q. Why do we only have one size of glove? • A. Because no one has told me that it's a problem. Step 4 (In a team meeting) • Q. Why hasn't anyone reported a problem with glove sizes? • A. Because our suggestions are never taken up or acted upon. .

38. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper • Establish a valid cause-effect relationship not questionable insufficient oversimplified

39. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper 2. Focus on EITHER causes or effects What causes colon cancer? OR If a patient has colon cancer, what effects can be expected?

40. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper 3. Discuss causes or effects in a logical order: • least obvious to most obvious • most obvious to least obvious • most important to least important • least important to most important, or • sequence (first, second, third [or final])

41. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper 4. Check your logic: • Have you confused an effect with a cause? • Have you considered all possible causes and chosen the most important one(s)?

42. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper 5. Use conjuctions to show cause and effect relationships • since as a result because of … • because therefore due to … • consequently for this reason so • leads to thus

43. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper 6. Use signal words to show the degree of certainty • may perhaps possibly • probably • certainly undoubtedly unquestionably necessarily inevitably irrefutably

44. Possible Topics

45. Writing a Cause-Effect Paper • http://web.cwoc.ufl.edu/owl/essay_models/index. • http://www.santarosa.edu/~dpeterso/permanenthtml/tutorial/tutorialframe.htm

46. Causality Can Be Tricky • http://www.rube-goldberg.com/html/pencil_sharpener

48. Causes of Salem Witch Trials 1. Mass hysteria caused by an over zealous religious faith all fueled by superstition, panic, and rumor. Tituba, A West Indian indentured servant recently imported to a household in Salem, had been telling stories and folklore about demons and spells to several young girls who, in turn, spread the stories through the neighborhood. Such stories of witches and demons and spells to ward them off or attract them had always been in circulation, but under the influence of an “authority” like Tituba, they took root in the minds of some very impressionable adolescent girls and spread. 2. Rye mold which contain the chemical basis for LSD. Mold on rye bread and mushrooms containing a hallucinogenic chemicals have been blamed for many historical incidents from the Spanish Inquisition to a form of Medieval mania called Dancing Mania. 3. Economic jealousy of fringe groups in the small culture who felt disenfranchised and relatively deprived and who intended to get revenge on the landholders and wealthy citizens. 4. A Spiritual realm invisible to the eye which is inhabited by demons and angels and who interact with humans either to cause grief and havoc or protect and give good counsel.