People, Water and Climate: Case Studies in Nei Mong , China and Jaipur , India

1. People, Water and Climate: Case Studies in NeiMong, China and Jaipur, India Sarah Opitz-Stapleton Institute for Social and Environmental Transition staplets@i-s-e-t.org http://www.i-s-e-t.org

2. Framing Adaptation Research or Processes?

3. Blocs Nations Transnat’l Corps Planned State/Prov Govs City Govs Citizen Groups Med Business Households, Sm Business Autonomous Who defines the Problems or the Goals? SOCIETY SPACE TIME

4. Engage Early and Often

5. Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) Wikicommons Funded by: DfID, U.K. Ministry of Energy and Climate Change & the Swiss Agency of Development and Cooperation

6. Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) Climate Impact Assessments Steps in Adaptive Planning Scoping Vulnerability and Risk assessments Identification of adaptation options Analysis and Evaluation of Options Prioritization of options Stakeholder Engagement New Knowledge • We will know… • Strengths and weaknesses for planning • Key stakeholders and resources • Current institutional adaptive capacity (baseline) • Metrics for assessing long-term progress • We will know… • Who is vulnerable and most at risk • Socio-economic drivers of vulnerability • Other vulnerability and risk factors • Systemic thresholds • People’s attitudes towards climate risks • Possible social and environmental impacts • We will know… • Costs and benefits of options • Cost effectiveness of options • Technical feasibility of options • Possible social and environmental impacts Final Products Provincial Adaptation Roadmaps 12th Five Year Plan Recommen-dations Stakeholder Engagement

7. NeiMong, China Problem statement: “Through improving research level, this project aims to organically integrate climate change and region's economic and social development, especially on the aspect of grassland animal husbandry development and planning and policies of water resources utilization, in order to provide advices for policies and programs on province level and promote the formulation and implementation of adaptation planning on the nation level for strengthening China's response to climate change.”

8. Urban Water: Jaipur, India Wikicommons NOAA SARP NA07OAR4310372

9. Project Phases • Assessing current socio-economic migration processes and projecting plausible future migration patterns (CEDSJ). • Assessing current water-use patterns and projecting potential changes in water use patterns (CEDSJ and ISET). • Statistical downscaling using output from 2 general circulation models, CGCM3 and ECHAM5, to project a range of potential precipitation changes for the Banas River Basin out to 2030 (ISET). • Construct hydrologic scenarios for Jaipur using WEAP to examine the impact of various water demand/ migration/ climate change scenarios on Jaipur’s water supply (CEDSJ and ISET). • Work with city managers to develop water management solutions robust against a variety of shocks and gradual changes (CEDSJ). This phase is iterative and involves ongoing interaction with key stakeholders.

10. The Water Nexus Variability & Climate Change Migration Formal Governance Informal Water Sector Livelihood Opportunities Environ. Degradation

11. Migration

12. Spatial Variability: Monsoon Systems

13. Informal Water Sector

14. Issues in Adaptation • While adaptation frameworks are developed, and adaptation research is undertaken, ultimately the majority of adaptation actions will be carried out at local levels. • Because of this, there is a critical need to understand the factors people perceive to be enabling or constraining their choices for action. • If we cannot deal with immediate, current climate hazards, what makes us think we can plan for unknown climate futures? • What are the tradeoffs of investing in adaptation research and framing?

15. Thank you!