Is Carbon Trading and Investment the next Sub-Prime Crisis?

1. “Dubious Assets and Dodgy Data” Is Carbon Trading and Investment the next Sub-Prime Crisis? CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

2. The Sub-Prime Crisis Investment Managers & Advisers Investment Managers & Advisers Investors AAA Securities Historic Mortgage experience based on Credit-worthy Owner-Occupiers Issuing banks Credit Ratings Agencies Property Agents Lenders Loan files (tapes) Fraudulent applications/Poor risks Borrowers CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

3. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)

4. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 The scientific method • Establish hypothesis • Conduct experiments and observations • Publish results in an accredited scientific journal • Make source data, assumptions, calculations and programs available to others • Independent peer review • Hypothesis is proven or abandoned

5. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 AGW hypothesis “It is now clear that man-made greenhouse gases are causing climate change. The rate of change began as significant, has become alarming and is simply unsustainable in the long term” Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009

6. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Greenhouse effect Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009

7. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Absence of greenhouse hot-spots The Missing Hotspot - Dr David Evans • http://sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf • http://sciencespeak.com/SimpleHotspot.pdf • http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2005JD006881.shtml

8. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Correlation of CO2 and temperature This figure shows historical CO2 (right axis) and reconstructed temperature (as a difference from the mean temperature for the last 100 years) records based on Antarctic ice cores, providing data for the last 800,000 years.

9. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 The logic puzzle? “Temperature and CO2 are linked. Studies of polar-ice layers show that in the past, rises in temperature have been followed by an increase in CO2. Now, it is a rise in CO2 causing the temperature to rise." Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009 • Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have preceded increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up to 800 years • Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom • C02 concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher (000's of parts per million)

10. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 CO2 • 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapour • CO2's contribution to greenhouse effect is < 3%http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html • Any warming influence is logarithmic – the first 20ppm has the greatest effect by far • At current levels (390 parts per million) additional CO2 will have little effect

11. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Feedbacks • Predictions based on 200% to 300% positive feedback from increased CO2 concentrations • Most climate models rely on this false premise • Actual observations indicate mildly negative feedbacksOn the Diagnosis of Feedback in the Presence of Unknown Radiative Forcing by Dr. Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswellhttp://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer-Braswell-JGR-2010.pdf

12. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Temperature data • Surface temperature records – Urban Heating Influence, lack of global uniformity, unintended consequencesAnthony Watts – http://wattsupwiththat.com/ • Proxy data: ice cores, tree rings, fossilised pollen and coral reefs • Weather Balloons • Satellites • History

13. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 History • Chaucer wrote of vineyards in England • Medieval Warm Period - temperatures c.1-3ºC higher than today • Roman and Holocene warm periods • Vikings settled Greenland c. 980 to 1400 AD • Little Ice Age – Maunder and Dalton minima • Samuel Pepys wrote in 1683 of the Great Frost Fair on the River Thames – frozen for several weeks

14. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 IPCC Report 1991 H.H. Lamb graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years

15. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 IPCC 2001 Report IPCC hockey stick graph of the past 1,000 years

16. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Debunking the hockey stick • McIntyre and McKitrickhttp://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html • Edward J Wegman, George Mason University, David W Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H Said, The John Hopkins Universityhttp://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf • McShane and Wyner 2010http://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/index.php/AOAS/user/submissionFile/6695?confirm=63ebfddf

17. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Climategate – November 2009 • 68Mb of documents and emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) posted on the internet • Confirmation of the isolated and politicised paleoclimatic community • Collusion, data and program manipulation • HARRY_READ_ME.txt • Hide the decline (Mike's Nature trick)

18. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Climategate – three inquiries 2010 • UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee – rushed (impending general election), superficial and biased • Oxbrough – not independent of UEA, characterised as a whitewash by Graham Stringer MP • Muir Russell – not independent and described as inadequate by Graham Stringer MP No-one investigated the science supporting the AGW theoryJohn P Costella - http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/CRU evidence: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387ii.pdf

19. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Extreme weather events • Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 - Chris Landsea, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf • Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? - Laurens M Bouwer of the Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdamhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

20. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Polar Ice • Antarctic Temperature and Sea Ice Trends over the Last Century - George Taylor, CCM http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf • Arctic temperatures above 80°N are the lowest in six yearshttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/arctic-temperatures-above-80%C2%B0n-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/

21. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Retreating glaciers • Glacial retreat in the Himalayas has been overstated by the IPCC • In the 1940s Swiss glaciers were melting faster than at present • Reduction in glacier mass is ascribed to solar radiation rather than man-made global warming http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040789.shtml

22. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Lack of Evidence • No discernible greenhouse effect in troposphere • No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature • Current temperatures within the bounds of natural variability • No evidence that global warming is causing extreme weather events • Arctic polar ice growing again, evidence of cooling in the Antarctic -1966 to 2000 • Glacier retreat ascribed to solar radiation

23. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

24. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Natural cycles and global temperature • Solar cycles - sunspots, solar magnetism, inverse correlation between cycle length and global temperatureshttp://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf • Galactic Cosmic Rays – influence cloud formationhttp://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/ • Albedo – reduction in low level reflective cloud cover accounts for recent warming from 1980 to 2000 • Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic ocean decadal and multi-decadal oscillations distribute heat from the tropics. Evidence of cycles and time lags

25. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Pacific decadal oscillation

26. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 “Is the science is settled?” • Senate Minority Report – over 700 scientists publicly dissenthttp://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=83947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9 • The IPCC can't count its "expert scientists": Author and reviewer numbers are wrong - John McLean 2009http://mclean.ch/climate/docs/IPCC_numbers.pdf • Copenhagen Climate Change Challenge – 166 expert climate scientists write an open letter to UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moonhttp://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/

27. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Structural incentives to prove and promote AGW • IPCC exists to promote the AGW hypothesis • Paleoclimatic community and climate models drive the IPCC agenda – receive funding to support AGW hypothesis • $50+billion spent by successive US governments on man-made global warming agenda in since 1989 • Carbon trading worth c. $140 billion in 2008 • US “Cap and Trade” legislation could boost it to $1trillion+ • Carbon industry will evaporate if AGW hypothesis is abandoned

28. 21st Century Carbon Caper Investment Managers & Advisers Investors Carbon Credits Carbon trading industry Politicians and Media IPCC, pro-AGW warming scientists Flawed Climate Models and Hockey Sticks Objective scientists Informed Sceptics Solar Cycles, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Albedo Fluctuation, Oceanic Oscillations CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

29. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Further research www.outersite.org http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/ http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=394 http://climateaudit.org/ http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796?RS_show_page=7 “Chill, A Reassessment of Global Warming”http://www.ethos-uk.com/publishing.html Beware of wikipedia – climate information has been systematically corruptedhttp://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/19/lawrence-solomon-wikipedia-s-climate-doctor.aspx Michael Mann and co-conspirators (their term, not mine – Tom Wigley, former Director of CRU, in an email to Michael Mann) have a pro-AGW site:www.realclimate.org

30. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 Roy Spencer – monthly global temperature anomolies http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

31. CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 21st Century Carbon Caper • No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature • Recent warming not unprecedented • Solar cycles and Oceanic oscillations drive temperature • No scientific consensus • Structural incentives to obscure the truth • Conduct fundamental research