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Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle

NARCCAP: Status Report and Some Preliminary Results. Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants. Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA

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Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle

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  1. NARCCAP: Status Report and Some Preliminary Results Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle

  2. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA Richard Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, Sébastien Biner, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda Mearns, Don Middleton, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

  3. Current status Working data sets: • UC - Santa Cruz (RCM3 designation) • Longitude variable differs other models with negative longitudes for western hemisphere.  Precip and 500 mb heights through 1991. • PNL (mm5p and wrfp designation) • Two files incomplete when transferred (Ruby has been contacted). Precip and 500 mb heights through 1985. Error in interpolation for 500 mb height from WRF. • OURANOS (MRCC designation) • All files checked via checksums and are working fine.  Precip and 500 mb height through full period.

  4. Current status Not Working data sets: • Hadley Centre (PRECIS) • Files provided as monthly mean values.  Not usable as submitted but able to processes after using ncdump | ncgen. Monthly output rather than 3-hour. • Scripps (ECPC) • Individual netCDF files provided for every output time step.  No internal timestamp. Variable and dimension names, etc. differ from specs. Output through 1987. (All this is straightforward to fix, except timestamp.)

  5. NARCCAP Plans • Phase I: 1979-2004 driven by Reanalysis 2 • establish uncertainty in RCMs • Phase IIa: RCMs driven by AOGCM 20th century climate (nominally 1971-2000) • Phase IIb: RCMs driven by AOGCM SRES A2 scenario 2041-2070

  6. The Matrix Any changes?

  7. Some data issues • Time coordinate: Days versus hours. • Recommendation: Hours would be simple integer; days may be easier for end users. • Bounds for coordinate variables (space and time) • Recommendation: Drop bounds for spatial coordinates. Keep bounds for time. • Include projection information in metadata (following ENSEMBLES)? • Recommendation: Yes. See example sent by Hadley Centre.

  8. Some data issues • Reporting domain: Send the entire domain to the archive or only the region inside the forcing frame (aka sponge zone)?  • There does not appear to be any straightforward way of subsetting for users. • Recommendation: Exclude forcing frame • Output transmittal to archive: ftp vs. mailing external hard drives (“FedEX Net”)?  • Recommendation: External hard drives. (Hadley Centre may prefer DLT cartridges.)

  9. Meetings • "Downscaling to local and regional scales" (IAMAS session MS016) at the IUGG Conference in Perugia, Italy 2-13 July 2007. • Designate a regular professional conference for NARCCAP meetings? Would help to save travel time and funds. • Recommendation: Fall AGU (consistent location; easy to reach). Propose a regional modeling session at each meeting; maybe a NARCCAP session at later stages.

  10. Some preliminary results • Results are shown here for 1979-1985 from three RCMs. • Observed precip is from the CRU 0.5o data set. • probably underestimates precip in high terrain – need to look at other precip data sets

  11. Analysis Regions Northern Plains: flat terrain, early summer precip maximum Pacific Northwest: mountainous terrain, winter precip maximum

  12. Precipitation, 1979-1985

  13. Mean annual cycle of precipitation

  14. January 1981 monthly mean 500 mb height January 1980 – ENSO neutral reanalysis

  15. July 1982 monthly mean 500 mb height reanalysis reanalysis

  16. 500 mb heights January 1983 – strong El Niño

  17. NARCCAP Project Timeline End Current GCM1 AOGCM Boundaries available Project Start current status Start Current Climate GCM1 End Current and Future GCM2 End Future climate GCM1 End reanalysis RCMs ? 1/06 6/06 9/06 12/06 6/07 12/07 12/08 current date Time slices Finish obs SST Finish delta SST

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