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Graphical Policy Analysis Tool

GPAT. Graphical Policy Analysis Tool. Developed by Kevin Wheeler for USBR and CADSWES. Comparing Potential Policies. Complex Models = Complex Output Multiple Slots of Interest Stakeholders Multiple Run Analysis Hydrologic scenarios Multiple Policies of Interest Time.

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Graphical Policy Analysis Tool

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  1. GPAT Graphical Policy Analysis Tool Developed by Kevin Wheeler for USBR and CADSWES

  2. Comparing Potential Policies Complex Models = Complex Output • Multiple Slots of Interest • Stakeholders • Multiple Run Analysis • Hydrologic scenarios • Multiple Policies of Interest • Time Four Dimensional Space

  3. Traditional Comparison • Model managers extract, graph and present all results that they deem as significant – Potential bias? • Focus on differences and not similarities • Stakeholder inevitably ask questions for which the modelers are not prepared to answer • Discussions Cease • RESCHEDULE MEETINGS = $$$

  4. Using ExcelWriter • Write RiverWare Outputs into Spreadsheet Format Slot Run POLICY #1 Time

  5. How to Compare Policies??? POLICY #2 POLICY #1 POLICY #3 POLICY #5 POLICY #4

  6. Commonly Asked Questions • I want to compare individual slot values over time for a common hydrology

  7. Commonly Asked Questions • I want to compare the statistics of all hydrologic scenarios over time • Mean, Minimum, Maximum, Standard Deviation

  8. Commonly Asked Questions • How do the probabilistic distributions of slot values compare at one point in time? PDF (Histogram) , CDF

  9. Commonly Asked Questions • What will the slot values be over time that correspond to a particular percentile of occurrence?

  10. Commonly Asked QuestionsProbabilities • What is the probability of a slot variable exceeding or not exceeding a certain value through time? • What is the probability of a slot variable falling within a specified range through time? • What is the probability of a binary occurrence? • Flood release, shortage, surplus, equalization flags

  11. Example: Depleting Reservoirs

  12. Specialty Functions • Arithmetic operations between slots in the same policy to create new slots • What is the total storage capacity in the system? • Arithmetic operations between different policies • What are the differences between two policies for ALL slots? • Isolate Monthly Values • What is the probability exceeding a slot value during a specific set of months? • Record and recall graphs produced

  13. Benefits • Give rapid access to all model results • Answer questions “on the fly” • Facilitate model interpretation by stakeholders • Generate a qualitative AND quantitative understanding of similarities and tradeoffs • Promote interactive discussions between stakeholders – Generate new policies

  14. Present • Version 1.1 on the web site • Version 1.2 Development circulating

  15. Future • Bulletproof development version and release • Solicit needs • Include some concepts from TVA’s tool • Additional timesteps • Connections to other tools • and more! • Add features to version 2.0

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