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Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010

Future of water availability and water balance of the Aral Sea Basin to 2030 – impact of climate change and different factors. Prof. V.A. Dukhovny. Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010. Forecasts of the future in the basin. UNESCO’s Vision ( J. Bogardi )

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Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010

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  1. Future of water availability and water balance of the Aral Sea Basin to 2030 – impact of climate change and different factors Prof. V.A. Dukhovny Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010

  2. Forecasts of the future in the basin UNESCO’s Vision (J. Bogardi) BAU, agricultural production priority, industrial development priority ASBmm model (Resource Analysis / SIC ICWC) BAU, neutral, optimistic GEF, Project «Water resources management in ASB» Optimistic, national NewASBMM model

  3. What can we expect in the future?External destabilizing factors • Population growth; • Urban growth and increasing industrial needs; • Changing crop patterns; • Climate change; • Low agricultural output prices at the world markets; • Increasing energy pressure; • Probable growth of water diversions by Afghanistan.

  4. Comparisonof main parameters in different regional scenarios for 2020

  5. Evaluating the future water resources of the Aral Sea Basin, km3 (SIC-ICWC)

  6. Combination of climate scenarios and water management scenarios (SIC-ICWC)

  7. Case study of Syrdarya basin 2002…2008!

  8. Water availability in Syrdarya 2008 Summer

  9. Water demand under the "optimistic option” over a 25-year period according to the WEMP (million m3)

  10. Comparing the results of the ASBMM model with other predictions (SIC ICWC)

  11. IWRM principles • Management on the basis of basin hydrography; • Public participation in management, planning, maintenance, and financing; • Equity, equality, openness and information awareness; • Water conservation and water demand management; • Nature’s demand priority; • Monitoring and use of all kinds of water; • Horizontal coordination of water users and vertical coordination of water hierarchical levels; • Economic and financial stability of management.

  12. Adoption of IWRM in the Fergana Valley

  13. Indicators of agricultural productionimprovement in the IWRM-Fergana Project

  14. Impact of climatic factors

  15. Formation of azotobacter nodules on green gram roots

  16. Farmer training in adapting to climate change

  17. Principal directions of adaptation • More precision long term forecast of water availability. • More accurate forecast of climatic and hydrological conditions. • Ability to get permanently climatic information. • Multiyear regulation reservoirs. • Water saving and implementation of IWRM. • Training for adaptation. • Increase second crop growing. • Water resistant crops. • Control of losses in rivers.

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