Welcome!

1. Welcome! The Academy for Advanced Leadership and Development www.chairacademy.com

2. Overview: critical decision thinking • How do we decide to decide? • Do organizations really decide? • Myths • Wisdom of Crowds • Procedural Injustice • Decision variables • Biases • Reasoning • Procedural • Decision Traps • Asking the Right Questions • Review and Reflection

3. Get Set! • Pick your bag and reap your reward. • First group to lunch. • Nothing. • Stay back and clean-up after class. • Last group to lunch. • You get to steal a bag. • Issues to decide • Who will pick? • How will you decide? • Play or don’t play? • There is a code that may lead you to the best choice. HINT, IT’S A BEAUTIFUL DAY!

4. Defining decision making • Classic Steps: • Define the problem • Gather information/collect data • Develop and weigh the options • Choose the best possible option • Plan and execute • Take follow-up action • DEFINED • The thought process of selecting a logical choice from the available options. • A check and balance system that keeps the organization growing both in vertical and linear directions.

5. Myth-realities

6. “critical” decision making • The ability to make critical decisions is: • Accurately defining a risk or problem, • Framing risks related to the solutions • Handling personal bias, and adherence to governance and process. • A well defined critical decision making process prevents secondary problems from arising. • Critical decisions may be quick or could take months depending on the compliance required for the product or service. • What makes a decision critical? • When the risk of not deciding/deciding is relatively equivalent or mitigated and/or the cost of making the wrong choice may result in truly adverse consequences.

7. How do we decide?

8. biases

9. Procedural decisions Process and procedures can point the way, create a roadmap for deciding, they can also slow progress and greatly limit original thinking and actions. • ID agencies/reps to involve. • Legitimate process of evaluation/inquiry. • Cover know steps in useful sequence. • Generate lots of activity with out wasting time. • Same cast of characters. • Process takes time, lacks sense of urgency. • Steps are often based on the world we know. • Activity may become more about process than the product itself. Makes us feel good, but? PRO CON

10. Ask the right questions • Assess the landscape—get a feel for the larger context, scan the horizon, look for key indicators. • Discover CORE questions—look for patterns, relationships between data, work to uncover deeper themes. • Create an image of possibilities—it’s easy to pick an argument apart—seek to question constructively/positively. • Evolve workable strategies—question should contribute towards building the vision and accomplishing the mission. Ask to learn, not to judge, to discover not deny, to lift up not tear down.

11. Cuban missile crisis

12. Case study OCT 1962, 1 year after Bay of Pigs • Photos reveal missiles • 80 million US citizens at risk • JFK forms Group-ExComm • Meet for 12 intense days at WH/State • JFK participates in some sessions avoids influence • Most favored airstrike, McNamara favors blockade of Cuba. • JFK splits ExComm into two groups create competing White Papers, refer, critique • JFK class in RFK and Ted Sorensen to serve as objective NON advocates. • Groups meet w/JFK, brief proposals, vet, and decide.

13. Consider complexity As you consider the Cuban Missile Crisis, reflect on the lessons from our discussion on complexity. What were the attributes and landscape related to this issue? • Interdependent • Diverse • Adapt • Connected • Simple • Rugged • Dancing Attributes Landscape Matters

14. Remember why complex systems matter • They offer the opportunity to deliver robustsolutions. • Increase the opportunity for success despite an uncertain future. • Better adapt to emergent conditions, particularly when limited notice has been given. • Allows an organization to deal with issues of significant scope and reach. • Often capable of delivering a lasting solution faster, even under conditions of great duress.

15. How did jfk optimize the system? Interdependency Diversity Adaptability Connectedness

16. How they blew it Jamie Oliver & Tony Goodwin 2010

17. Case study Case studies require us to analyze problem situations and reach our own conclusions concerning the outcome. • Name the issue. • Review the facts. • WHO is the ultimate decider? • List the key stakeholders. • Determine what matters. • Assess why it matters and to whom. • Assess your relationship with key stakeholders. • Make a recommendation.

18. assignment • Take 75 Minutes • Form into teams. • Review materials. • Designate roles. • Facilitator • Time Keeper • Reporter/Recorder • Outline review process. • Record key observations. • Prepare summary report. • Report recommendation.

19. Report on results • What did you identify as the key issue? • Who is the key decider? • Why does the issue matter? To whom? • Who are the key stakeholders? • What is your recommendation? • WHY?

20. summary • Decisions matter—they direct us towards the future, preserve us, inspire us and above all they move us to ACT. • Complex Systems are better able to deal for complex decisions. • Rational decision models may help, but do NOT ensure success. WATCH for cognitive biases. • Groups show evidence of greater success, but only if organized, resourced and diverse. • Ask the RIGHT questions, create a culture where questions may be asked. • Procedures should guide NOT rule. • REFLECT on the results!

21. Reflection Record 2-3 ideas, issues that came out of the discussion that were most meaningful to you.

22. Personal Investment Plan (PIP)