* Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber, 1973

1. “The search for scientific bases for confronting problems of social policy is bound to fail, because of the nature of these problems. They are wicked problems, whereas science has developed to deal with tame problems... We have no theory to dispel wickedness.”* * Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber, 1973

2. Prof. Amanda Lynch, FTSESchool of Geography and Environmental Science Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable: The role of democracy in responding to climate change

3. Standpoint

4. Human dignity • Law, science, policy and politics are the necessary means to this end • Dignity of the many: the inherent and equal value of every human being • This must be made explicit for your evaluation and my re-evaluation

5. Why Democracy?

6. Three (non-exhaustive) reasons • The conversation has changed from science to action • Environmentalism is not a good model for dealing with climate change • Alternative models are being proposed

7. Three (non-exhaustive) reasons • The conversation has changed from science to action “...the U.S. State Department ...began to wrest the policy initiative from the AGGG network by replacing parts of it and extending others to include governmental research bodies...”* “I can remember internal discussions within the US about the nature of the AGGG.  However [in the IPCC] we made sure that the science would be well articulated.”** * Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, 1994 ** Joe Friday, 2008

8. Three (non-exhaustive) reasons 2. Environmentalism is not a good model for dealing with climate change “It would be dishonest to lay all the blame on the media, politicians or the oil industry for the public’s disengagement from the issue that, more than any other, will drive our future. Those of us who call ourselves environmentalists have a responsibility to examine our role...”* * Peter Teague in the Forward to Shellenberger and Nordhaus, 2004

9. Three (non-exhaustive) reasons 3. Alternative models are being proposed “We argue that even if liberal capitalism ceased to exist there would still be the potential for an environmental crisis because of the destructive tendencieswithin the heart of democracy itself. ...There must be open minds to look critically at liberal democracy. Reform must involve the adoption of structures to act quickly regardless of some perceived liberties.”* * David Shearman and Joseph Smith, 2007

10. Democratic Models

11. Here is a system that cannot be described except in terms of duplication and overlap – of a redundancy of channel, code, calculation, and command. “The ‘rationality’ of politics in such a system derives from the fact that a system can be more reliable (more responsive, more predictable) than any of its parts”* Democratic Models * Martin Landau, 1969

12. Scientific management • universally applicable policies • Adaptive management* • policies are hypothesis to be tested • technical learning • Adaptive governance** • continuous appraisal of means and ends • uses technical and local knowledge • technical, social and institutional learning Democratic Models * e.g. C.S. Holling, 1995 ** many important contributions, including Brunner et al. 2002; Dietz et al. 2003; Folke et al. 2005; Gunderson & Light 2006; Nelson et al. 2008; Reis & Steelman 2008.

13. No constitutive arrangements are perfect. In some cases, “consultation” prohibits meaningful discussion, discourages discourse, and fuels further conflict. The practical implication for reformers is to distinguish symbols from deeds. “Inform, Invite and Ignore”

14. “The culturally potent idiom of the dispassionate scientific narrative is being employed to fight culture wars over competing social and ethical values”* Unfortunately, to some extent we are all blind and no doubt will remain so. There are, however, degrees of impairment. The political process in adaptive governance * Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner, 2007

15. The political process in adaptive governance “Predicting the exact course of global warming is a thankless task. Much more feasible and useful is generating alternative policies which can be introduced at appropriate times for slowing the warming, [adapting to] its unfavorable effects and taking advantage of favorable effects.”* In our politicians, we should penalize only doing nothing. * Herb Simon, 1996

16. On a practical level, our cognitive limitations corroborate the logic of factoring the climate change problem – both mitigation and adaptation - into thousands of small problems. Indeed, this is already occurring. Putting adaptive governance into action

17. For example: • Samsø DK–by 2005 producing from renewable sources more energy than using • Toronto – early adopter of targets and timetables but perhaps more important are innovative efficiency programs • Frito-Lay –reduced water use by 27% and electricity by 21% between 1999 and 2007 • Ashton-Hayes UK – cut emissions through demand management by 21% between 2006 and 2008 • WWF Climate Witness Program – Kabara Island Fiji received water tanks to deal with shortages Putting adaptive governance into action

18. Putting adaptive governance into action The politics of reaching agreement on policies connecting goals with alternatives are also greatly simplified by factoring the global problem. While we rightly pursue international agreements on targets and timetables, we can also support multiple parallel pathways to decentralization of decisions.

19. In conclusion The demands of leadership cannot be sidestepped, but: Responding to climate change can be a profoundly democratic process, deeply informed by our values as well as the facts of the matter. The destination is as yet unclear. The path of duty lies in what is near. Confucius

20. “Now if you’ll just tell me where you’re going, I can take you there.” “I’m going to find Alberto.” “Is Alberto another Eleutherodactylus portoricenis?” “No. He is a poet.” “Where is he?” Pepe looked at him in surprise. “I don't know.” It was the boy’s turn to think for a moment before answering. Then he said in his cheerful way, “Well, the thing to do is to start out,  isn’t it?” “Oh, yes,” Pepe exclaimed. He was glad to find that the boy was so  sensible. The Green Song