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Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies

Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies. David Bell Sydney Convenor ASPO Australia. Business as Usual is Over. Every week there is a crisis Energy crisis is under the radar but it is there Financial crises can be fixed with dollars unlike an energy crisis

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Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies

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  1. Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies David Bell Sydney Convenor ASPO Australia

  2. Business as Usual is Over • Every week there is a crisis • Energy crisis is under the radar but it is there • Financial crises can be fixed with dollars unlike an energy crisis • Google energy shortages or fuel shortages in news around the world • Car & Airline Industry fighting for their survival • US$70 oil is still high & markets are still tight • Economists cannot predict what the ASX will be at end of the year. In July 08 one predicts 6500

  3. Energy is the New Currency • USD is a currency backed by oil • OPEC producers are tied to USD • US imports 15 million barrels of oil a day • Rising prices make petrodollar recycling and trade balances worse • Oil producers cannot invest cash in US banking and financial system except T Bills • Russia’s Georgian conquest was about asserting control over energy flows • Food prices have also risen-food is energy

  4. Nigeria’s Offshore Platform Bonga attacked in June 2008 MEND now can go offshore 120 kms off Nigerian Coast

  5. Daily Prices in USD- Year to Year

  6. Daily Prices in USD

  7. Average Prices in USD 2004-2008 Source: EIA Data & CIBC World Markets

  8. Are we at Peak Yet?

  9. World Net Exports Top 20 Oil exporters –93% of all exporters

  10. 2012- Mexico No Longer Exports to US

  11. Future World Net Exports

  12. CIBC World Markets Forecast

  13. What is this telling us? • Oil demand will occur in Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC’s) at expense of OECD • China - 4 million new vehicles a year • US - 3 million vehicles off the road by 2010

  14. Australia is running a Petroleum Deficit- adds to Foreign Debt

  15. Competition for remaining oil could get nasty

  16. One way to Avoid Previous Slide • Fair allocations for remaining supplies • Countries work together to solve problem • Collapse of systems is averted • Everyone agrees to consume less

  17. This involves a paradigm shift • Current situation is unsustainable • Financial Markets crashing is proof we have problems • Current OECD World cannot handle US$140 oil • Consumers to conservers and producers • Passenger numbers on Public transport up! • Change is already happening

  18. No Silver Bullets only Silver Buckshot • ELP- Economise, Localise & Produce • Grow food locally • Rail not roads • Ship goods by water • Pay people for productivity not hours • Small is the new big • Smart urban design is essential • Technology will not save us we need strategies

  19. The World is not Flat!High Oil changes long supply lines Source: CIBC World Markets

  20. Small is the new big • Horizons shrink • The best energy to find is conservation • Conservation starts with shortening supply lines • Energy and food production comes home • We rebuild local communities • Co-operation and pooling of resources

  21. A new currency for a new era? “We have it in our power to build the world anew”. Thomas Paine

  22. Why a Local Currency? • To build resilience inthe localeconomyby keeping money circulating in the community and building new relationships • To get people thinking and talking about how they spend their money • To encourage more local trade and thus reduce food and trade miles • To encourage tourists to use local businesses (source: Totnes Pound Project)

  23. Role of Engineers in PO Economy • Develop low energy solutions – Peak Oil & Global Warming • Teaching and retraining of service industry workforce • Creative reuse of resources • Engineers understand energy and numbers • EROEI is key to the future • Bringing back rail • Measure energy used in communities • Building new energy infrastructure

  24. This is no longer acceptable rCr

  25. PO Engineers at Work

  26. Is this safe?

  27. Answer: Consult an Engineer

  28. Thank You www.aspo-australia.org.au Email dbell2100@gmail.com

  29. US Crude Oil

  30. US Gasoline

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