BIOMASS FUTURES: Biomass role in achieving the Climate Change & Renewables EU policy targets. Demand and Supply dyna

1. BIOMASS FUTURES: Biomass role in achieving the Climate Change & Renewables EU policy targets. Demand and Supply dynamics under the perspective of stakeholders EIE/08/ 653/ June 2009- December 2011

2. Biomass: a very important component of RES policy & targets BUT • Questions remain: • how can Europe deliver on the biomass potential sustainably? • what role can biomass play in meeting the RES-D targets? • what will be the demand and how does this interact with supply? • how will sustainability indicators shape the biomass future? • how can policy makers get access to credible, up-to-date info in order to review/ validate biomass shares in NREAPs? Climate change 1 Ha Security of supply Demographic changes Source: BBC Consumers’ attitude

3. Project Summary The project aims to quantify the sustainable role biomass can play to meet the RESD targets for 2020. To do so, the consortium will work through a series of interrelated work packages in order to provide a better understanding of bioenergy demand and supply dynamics, and to what extend and how a sustainable production and use of domestic and imported biomass sources can contribute to EU27 energy needs. The project will be executed in close collaboration with key stakeholders to identify sustainable options for bioenergy development and deployment to the year 2030, and to increase awareness about the opportunities and the risks, and how these can be addressed.

4. Objectives & main steps The objective of this project is to use modeling frameworks in order to inform policy with quantitative information on the role biomass can play to meet the RES-D targets for 2020. Main steps are: • Develop linkages to well established models (Admire- REBUS, BIOTRANS, PRIMES), harmonise data and assumptions and refine spatial resolution • Quantify demand and supply dynamics through market segmentation (heat, electricity-CHP and transport) • Provide indicators for indirect land use, air, water, soil and social issues. Quantify their impacts on supply. • Assess the role biomass can play in meeting the EU policy targets for RES-D at EU27 and MS level. • Inform and support policy makers at European and national level and generate information for biomass role which will be taken into account in the formation of NAPs. • Collaborate with stakeholders to monitor their perspectives & views, get their feedback and integrate it to the project outputs/ deliverables. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 4

5. Expected Results • Quantitative scenarios for sustainable demand & supply patterns for biomass in EU27 with disaggregation at Member state level that will be useful for policy makers to address issues in implementing the Renewable Energy Directive. • Concise and convincing conclusions and recommendations to stakeholders from the energy and fuels industry, biomass suppliers, and policy makers on the role biomass can play to the heat, electricity-CHP and transport markets demand in EU27 and per Member state. • Spatially detailed information on biomass availability and costs in the EU27 and Member States, including the key parameters that affect this, and policy measures of influence • Evaluation and quantification of the impacts that sustainability criteria (as they will be formed by the Commission) plus criteria on indirect land use change, water, air, soil and socials aspects can have on the availability and costs of biomass. • Interactive communication with market and policy stakeholders to identify the demand and supply aspects required to increase the use of bioenergy and meet the RES-D targets. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 5

6. Policy Workshop how will the very substantial increase in the use of biofuels, bioliquids, solid biomass and biogas be supplied across Europe simultaneously? June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 6

7. Aim of the workshop today provide attendees with an improved understanding of the facts and evidence base: presenting the nature of the demand set out in the available NREAPs; summarising the implications in terms of future EU land use of expanding biomass demand; presenting modelling work for the supply of biomass for energy in EU27 & MS; considering the sustainability of this supply; and combining these results with anticipated models describing the nature of EU energy demand into the future. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 7

8. Future work BIOMASS FUTURES • Share of biomass in heat, electricity/ CHP and transport for EU27 & MS • Sustainability criteria impact on supply • Align efforts with DG ENER & EEA • Provide input Biofuel sustainability scheme and biomass sustainability report • Provide input to MS for the 2010 Progress monitoring of NREAPs • Continue working alongside with Stakeholders to ensure our work provides input to and is communicated/ Validated through the key players of the sector and the general public June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 8

9. Website: www.biomassfutures.eu Thank you! Dr Calliope Panoutsou Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London c.panoutsou@imperial.ac.uk PARTNERS • International Systems of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, AT) • Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES, GR) • Oeko- Institut, Institute for Applied Ecology (Oeko, DE) • Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN, NL) • Alterra b.v. (NL) • Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP, UK) • Insitute of Communication and Computer Systems/ E3M Lab (ICCS, GR)