Climate Change: Globalization of Impacts & Solutions

1. Climate Change: Globalization of Impacts & Solutions Sassan Saatchi UCLA/Institute of Environment NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Email: saatchi@congo.jpl.nasa.gov Security Issues and Impacts: Comparative Perspectives on Europe and Eurasia UCLA, June 1, 2007

2. Climate Change The Environmental Consequences of Growth • Climate change is a global problem caused by human activities at local, regional, global scale • Roots of environmental changes are deeply embedded in processes that generate economic growth • Mitigation of effects of climate change challenges our economic views of growth, progress, and basic human food and energy consumption

3. Vostok: Past climate and CO2 Petit et al., Nature, 1999

4. Carbon Cycle:Carbon cycles through pools or reservoirs of carbon on land, in the ocean, and in sedimentary rock formations over daily, seasonal, annual, millennial and geological time scales.

5. IPCC, 2007

6. Climate Change & Human Activity What is the Global Carbon Cycle?

7. The 1:1 relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions can be de-linked

8. Global City Lights

9. u Industrialized Pacific l Western Europe Vehicles per Thousand People:U.S. Compared to Other Countries Historical U.S. Vehicles Compared to Vehicles per 1000 People around the World United States Vehicles per 1000 People Eastern Europe Middle East n Former USSR Africa l Central & S. America u l n u Developing Asia China n Sources:U.S. dataVehicles: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000, Table VM-1, and earlier annual editions.Population: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Time Series of National Population Estimates: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2001Other countries/regionsEnergy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0484(2002), p. 256.

11. Global Carbon Cycle Keeling Curve Houghton, 1998

13. 1984 1997

14. Consequences of Climate Change

17. Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Extermination of Animal & Plant Species 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data 2. Ice Sheet Response Time Regional Climate Change 1. General Statement 2. Droughts/Floods

18. Recent increases in the growing season length at high northern latitudes 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Day of Thaw Day of Freeze Growing Season Length (days) 1998 Anomaly Smith, Saatchi, Randerson [2004]

19. Mapping changes in global net primary production near real-time depiction of the droughts in the Amazon and Horn of Africa, May 2005

20. Increasing Fire: A Smoking Gun for Changing Climate? Large Fires Alaska and Canada 1980 – 1990 M. Flannigan, T. Swetnam et al

21. Deforestation and Fire

23. Case Study in Ecotone Region of Cameroon Economic Commission For Africa, 2001

26. Impact of Fire on Land Cover & Land Use Change

27. MODIS Change Detection Percent Woody Cover 0-30% 31-60% 61-100% Hecht & Saatchi, BioScience,in press 2007 1-30%

28. Global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks during the 21st century then levels off or declines

29. 21st Century Global Warming Climate Simulations for IPCC 2007 Report ►Climate Model Sensitivity 2.7-2.9ºC for 2xCO2 (consistent with paleoclimate data & other models) ►Simulations Consistent with 1880-2003 Observations (key test = ocean heat storage) ►Simulated Global Warming < 1ºC in Alternative Scenario Conclusion: Warming < 1ºC if additional forcing ~ 1.5 W/m2 Source: Hansen et al., to be submitted to J. Geophys. Res.

30. The annual mean change of temperature (map) and the regional seasonal change (upper box: DJF; lower box: JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2

31. The annual mean change of precipitation (map) and the regional seasonal change (upper box: DJF; lower box: JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2

32. Climate change and other environmental issues are inter-linked

34. Responsibility for CO2 Emissions and Climate Change

35. Climate Change – An integrated framework

36. Methods to Reduce CO2 Emissions 1.Energy Efficiency & Conservation More Efficient Technology Life Style Changes 2.Renewable & CO2-Free Energy Hydro Solar, Wind, Geothermal Nuclear 3.CO2 Capture & Sequestration  No Silver Bullet  All Three are Essential

37. The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy • Affluence • is not just money… • Adequate, clean water • Good health • Education Affluence Japan United States France United Kingdom South Korea Mexico Poland El Salvador Russia China Poverty Bangladesh Burkina Faso Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002

38. Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Mexico 3% Libya 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S. 26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Russia 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% Italy 3% Mexico 3% Brazil 3% Canada 3% India 3% U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Have Oil Use Oil The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. Updated August 2002. Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.

46. Limits to Growth

48. Resource data may imply a change in the energy mix and the introduction of new sources of energy during the 21st century

49. Key Message Environment Supply Demand Josef Koudelka/CHAOS LEBANON. Beirut. City centre. 1991.