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MPAR Cost-Benefit Discussion

MPAR Cost-Benefit Discussion. Mark Weber Jeff Herd 14 December 2009. Purpose of Briefing. Update MPAR acquisition cost data developed from ongoing Lincoln-MaCom panel demonstration project Review methodology used to compare life-cycle costs for MPAR versus legacy radars

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MPAR Cost-Benefit Discussion

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  1. MPAR Cost-Benefit Discussion Mark Weber Jeff Herd 14 December 2009

  2. Purpose of Briefing • Update MPAR acquisition cost data developed from ongoing Lincoln-MaCom panel demonstration project • Review methodology used to compare life-cycle costs for MPAR versus legacy radars • Discuss strategies for developing monetary benefits associated with MPAR

  3. Active Phased Array Radar Recurring Cost Distribution Typical Radar Cost Breakout* Radar + Proc Active ESA Signal, Data Processor Receiver/Exciter Active ESA • Major cost of phased array radar is in active electronically scanned array (AESA) aperture • Typical AESA is 75% of total radar cost* • Key AESA cost driver is transmit-receive module * Loomis, J.M.; ‘Army Radar Requirements for the 21st Century’, 2007 IEEE Radar Conference, 17-20 April 2007 Page(s):1 - 6

  4. MPAR Risk Reduction Panel DC Power + Control Heat Exchanger T/R Modules Aperture Board • MPAR risk reduction panel cost estimates based upon low/high volume pricing from multiple sources • Domestic and off-shore • Utilizing commercial high volume manufacturing practices • Target cost of $50k per m2

  5. MPAR T/R Module Cost • IC chip cost estimates based upon current commercial wafer processing costs for >2M parts • All costs based upon actual Bills of Material (BOM) • Current assembly, test, and overhead costs based upon actual MPAR T/R module fabrication and test • Potential for reduced costs based upon additional IC chip integration and lower bandpass filter cost

  6. MPAR Aperture Board Cost 16” Lowest PC Board Estimate Highest PC Board Estimate • Biggest cost driver for Aperture Board is multilayer PC board • Significant spread in PC board manufacturer costs (~factor of 2) • Rollup cost estimates for panel range between $7k-15k ($40k-90k per m2) • Close to target cost of ~ $50k per m2

  7. Cost Rollups • “Terminal” MPAR (4 m diameter, ASR equivalent) • Low: (50 m2 x $41 K/m2) ÷ 0.6 = $ 3.4 M • High: (50 m2 x $88 K/m2) ÷ 0.6 = $ 7.3 M • Full Scale MPAR (8 m diameter, NEXRAD, TDWR, ARSR equivalent) • Low: (201 m2 x $41 K/m2) ÷ 0.6 = $ 13.7 M • High: (201 m2 x $88 K/m2) ÷ 0.6 = $ 29.5 M • TDWR Replacement Costs (per Ted Weyrauch, AJT 1210) • Equipment: $7.0 M per site • Installation: $0.5 M per site • Activation/Commissioning $0.5 M per site • Academy Course Development $3.0 M total • Aeronautic Center Facility $100 M total • Logistics Center Stock (25% of equip.) $1.75 M per site • Log. Ctr. test equip./support contracts $80 M total • Program Office Support $40 M total • P3I $173 M total Roughly 50% of TDWR replacement costs are non-recurring

  8. Purpose of Briefing • Update MPAR acquisition cost data developed from ongoing Lincoln-MaCom panel demonstration project • Review methodology used to compare life-cycle costs for MPAR versus legacy radars • Discuss strategies for developing monetary benefits associated with MPAR

  9. Life Cycle Cost Comparison(Presented to NAS Study Panel) $2.4B • Assumptions: • 510 legacy @ $5-10M ea • 167 full-size MPAR @ $15M ea • 167 terminal-area MPAR @ $5M ea • Legacy O&M = $0.5M per year • MPAR O&M = $0.3M per year • Replacement of legacy systems with MPAR on as-needed basis saves ~ $2.4B over 20-year period • Majority of savings comes from reduced O&M costs • Assumes equivalent cost per element of $188.00 ($100k per m2) • Must include assembly, testing, radar back-end, software, …

  10. Purpose of Briefing • Update MPAR acquisition cost data developed from ongoing Lincoln-MaCom panel demonstration project • Review methodology used to compare life-cycle costs for MPAR versus legacy radars • Discuss strategies for developing monetary benefits associated with MPAR

  11. Multifunction Phased Array Radar Need methodology for ascribing monetary benefits to potential service improvements

  12. Example: Model for Assessing Impact of Reduced Tornado Warning Lead Times

  13. Tornado Impact Mitigation: (i) Reduced Lead Time, (ii)Reduced Lead Time plus Improved PD

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