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Cover. Circulation and relationship between pollutant sources and atmospheric composition in the Himalayan region. G. Calori ARIANET, Milano and CGRER, U. of Iowa D. Anfossi, P.Malguzzi, S. Trini Castelli CNR ISAC (Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate).

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  1. Cover Circulation and relationship between pollutant sources and atmospheric composition in the Himalayan region G. Calori ARIANET, Milano and CGRER, U. of Iowa D. Anfossi, P.Malguzzi, S. Trini Castelli CNR ISAC (Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate) Mountains, witnesses of global changes. Research in the Himalaya and Karakoram: SHARE-Asia Project Rome, 16-17 November 2005

  2. Outline Outline • what happened ? • which sources ? • how year-by-year meteo affects ? • intra-annual phenomena ? The case of sulfur – evidences from RAINS-Asia project: Project within SHARE-Asia / ABC • modelled historical trends • relationships with sources • interannual variability • seasonality focus on Indian sub-continent & Himalayan area

  3. RAINS-Asia Project RAINS-Asia Project Sponsored by World Bank, ADB and others Asian, American and European institutes Main purpose: integrated assessement modelling (energy projections, control technologies & costs, atmospheric dispersion, impacts) RAINS-Asia domain & regions

  4. SO2 emi spatial distrib SO2 emissions, spatial distribution (area and large point sources, year 1990) Streets D.G., Amann M., Bhatti N., Cofala J., Green C. (1995): Chapter 4: RAINS-Asia: An Assessment Model for Air Pollution in Asia, Phase-I Final Report. Streets D.G., Tsai N.Y., Waldhoff S.T., Akimoto H., Oka K. (1999): Sulfur dioxide emission trends for Asian countries, 1985-1995. Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia, Interim Report, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria), July 22-23, 1999. Ryaboshanko A.G., Brukhanov P.A., Gromov S.A., Proshina Y.V., Afinogenova O.G. (1996): Anthropogenic emissions of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen into the atmosphere of the former Soviet Union in 1985 and 1990. Report CM-89, Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University. Andres R.J., Kasgnoc A.D. (1998): A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 103, pp. 25251-25261.

  5. What happened? What happened ?

  6. Emission trends 1975-2000 Estimated Asia-wide past trends of SO2 annual emissions 1975-2000 Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G., Calori G., Amann M., Jacobson M. Z., Hansen J., Ueda H. (2002) Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate. Environmental Science and Technology 36(22), 4707-4713.

  7. Modelling framework Modelling framework CGRER – Centre for Global and Regional Environmental Research (Carmichael et al.) • ATMOS-2 3D Lagrangian puff model with multiple layers • linear S chemistry • dry and wet deposition • meteorology: NCEP re-analyses • year-by-year emission inventory: diffuse and large point sources • time frame: 1990-1998 year-by-year, 1975-2000 every 5th year

  8. Monthly SOx fields Calculated monthly S fields Examples: years 1990 - 95 (using year-specific emissions and meteorologies) SO2 concentration SO4 concentration

  9. Modelled historical trends (1) Modelled historical trends (1) Relative change of annual total S dep. in 1975-2000 period Total S deposition for year 2000 (both computed using year-specific emissions and meteorology) Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G., Calori G., Amann M., Jacobson M. Z., Hansen J., Ueda H. (2002) Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate. Environmental Science and Technology 36(22), 4707-4713.

  10. Modelled historical trends (2) Modelled historical trends (2) Relative changes of annual total S deposition due to changes in S-emissions only (computed using estimated year-specific S-emissions but 1990 meteorology)

  11. Which sources? • Which sources ?

  12. Country-to-country S-R relationships Country-to-country S-R relationships Calculated annual total S deposition for selected countries and % contributions of the contributing source areas - 1975 - 2000 (using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

  13. graph S-R rel for Indian subcontinent INDI - UTPR INDI - BENG INDI - PUNJ INDI - UTPR INDI - BIHA PAKI - PUNJ INDI - BIHA NEPA INDI - EHIM INDI - BENG INDI - WHIM BANG INDI - PUNJ PAKI - NMWP PAKI - PUNJ INDI - HARY INDI - UTPR INDI - HARY INDI - EHIM INDI - UTPR INDI - UTPR INDI - BIHA INDI - BENG BANG INDI - MAPR INDI - BIHA INDI - HARY INDI - PUNJ INDI - DELH INDI - RAJA Indian subcontinent: trends and S-R relationships Calculated annual total S deposition for selected regions/countries and % contributions of the contributing source areas - 1975 - 2000 (using year-specific emissions and meteorologies) India, “W Himalaya” Bhutan Nepal Uttar Pradesh India, “E Himalaya”

  14. maps of S-R rel for Indian subcontinent (1) S-R relationships for Indian subcontinent % of deposition from the contributing source areas (avg. 1985 - 1997using year-specific emissions and meteorologies) India, “W Himalaya” Nepal Uttar Pradesh

  15. maps of S-R rel for Indian subcontinent (2) S-R relationships for Indian subcontinent % of deposition from the contributing source areas (avg. 1985 - 1997using year-specific emissions and meteorologies) Bhutan India, “E Himalaya”

  16. How year-by-year meteo affects? • How year-by-year meteorology affects ?

  17. Interannual variability (1) Interannual variability (1) Year-by-year relative deviation of country total depositions (normalized to 1990 emissions levels) Calori G., Carmichael G.R., Street D., Thongboonchoo N., Guttikunda S.K. (2001) Interannual variability in sulfur deposition in Asia. J. of Global Environment Engineering 7, 1-6.

  18. Interannual variability (2) Interannual variability (2) Standard dev. of yearly total deposition (calculated with 1990 emission levels, normalized respect to the average of 1985-97 values) Standard dev. of yearly total precipitation (normalized with respect to the average of 1985-97 values)

  19. Intra-annual phenomena? • Intra-annual phenomena ?

  20. Seasonality: 1 - Nepal Seasonality (1) Nepal (constant – 1990 – emissions and year-specific meteorologies) Guttikunda S.K., Thongboonchoo N., Arndt R.L., Calori G., Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G. (2001) Sulfur deposition in Asia: seasonal behavior and contributions from various energy sectors. Water Air and Soil Pollution 131 (1/4), 383-406.

  21. South Asian Monsoonal flow South Asian Monsoonal flow Summer wind flow Winter wind flow Source: Aguado, E and Burt, J.E., Understanding Weather and Climate, 3rd ed., Pearson Education, Inc., New Jersey, 2004.

  22. Seasonality: 2 - Bhutan Seasonality (2) Bhutan (constant – 1990 – emissions and year-specific meteorologies)

  23. Proposal: contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC Contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC Project proposal: Study of circulation and relationships between pollutant sources and atmospheric composition in the Himalayan area CNR-ISAC/TO - Domenico Anfossi et al. CNR-ISAC/BO - Piero Malguzzi et al. ARIANET Milano - Giuseppe Calori et al. • Purpose: investigate source-receptor relationships at hi res. (e.g. 20 km) & mountain-plain exchange mechanisms in different seasons

  24. Tools_ ISAC/TO Modelling tools (1) TRAJETN forward/backward trajectories MILORD Lagrangian Particle Stochastic model Chernobyl

  25. Tools_ ISAC/BO BOLAM Observed Modelling tools (2) BOLAM limited area meteorological model • Primitive equations in sigma vertical coordinates with split-explicit time scheme • Radiation: infrared and solar, interacting with clouds (Ritter & Geleyn and ECMWF RRTM - Morcrette) • Vertical diffusion (surface layer and PBL parameterization) based on E-l closure of the turbulent stresses • Surface thermal and water balance including soil and vegetation scheme (in coop. with the Hydrometeorological Institute of Russia – Pressman, 2002) • Explicit microphysical scheme with 5 hydrometeors (cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, hail/graupel), modified from Schultz (1995) and Drofa (2001) • Convective parameterization: Emanuel or Kain-Fritsch scheme Western Pacific Typhoon “Flo” COMPARE Project (WMO-WGNE) (Nagata et al, J. Met. Soc. Japan, 2001)

  26. Tools_ ARIANET Modelling tools (3) FARM 3D CTM Derived from STEM (Carmichael et al.) SAPRC90/99 mechanism Aerosols: Binkowsky modal module PM10 concentrations computed with RAMS+FARM CTM for RAINS-Italy Projects Isosurfaces at 5,10,20 ug/m3

  27. STEM & CFORS 80 km forecasts (CGRER) STEM&CFORS forecast (ABC_APMEX Intensive, fall 2004) ABC APMEX Intensive (October / November 2004) Post-Monsoon EXperiment The website is located at http://nas.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ABC/abc-90x60-current/pmenu.html. It provided real time forecasts for up to 4 days of relevant meteorological parameters, air-mass tracers indicating the source and age of a given air-mass and three dimensional concentration profiles of aerosols, radicals and other trace gases. The publicly available website was set up such that it was very user friendly and scientists were able to get 4-dimensional animated forecasts at the click of a mouse button. Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

  28. STEM BC emissions Streets, D.G., Bond, T.C., Carmichael, G.R., Fernandes, S.D., Fu, Q., Klimont, H.Z., Nelson, S.M., Tsai, N.Y., Wang, M.Q., Woo, J.H., Yarber, K.F., An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000, J. Geophysical Research. 108 (D21), 8809, (2003), 1-23.  Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

  29. STEM model forecasts STEM forecasts Source-related air mass tracers Sulfate concentration Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

  30. Proposal: contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC Contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC • CNR/ISAC-ARIANET project outline: • focus on events revealed by (high altitude) monitoring network and model forecasts (e.g. STEM & CFORS 80 km) • sources screening with back-trajectories • 3D meteo and chemical-transport modelling of gases and aerosols • analysis of source-receptor relationships and mechanisms • Collaboration with CGRER

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