Tendencias internacionales en la evaluación de la sostenibilidad

1. Tendencias internacionales en la evaluación de la sostenibilidad J. Marcos Castro Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. Universidad de Málaga

2. Presentation • Definition • Background • A taxonomy of Sustainability Indicators • Trends in Sustainability Indicators • Topics in Sustainable Indexing

3. Background • Classical issue in social sciences • Warning signals from local to global scale: • Ecological: climatic change, water scarcity, biodiversity losses and environmental degradation. • Socioeconomic: poverty, underdevelopment, low R+D investment, inequity in welfare and poor quality of life. • Signals not captured efficiently by macroeconomic measures (GNP, inflation, employ) & others regional and local ones. WE NEED NEW MEASURES MEASUREMENT OF DEVELOPMENT

4. Background RESPONSES Account Approach Welfare/Utility Approach Social Indicators Approach Cost-Benefit Analysis Green GNP Ecological & Human needs Satellite accounts (NAMEA) Ecological Footprint Contingent Valuation Material Flow Accounts Travel-Cost method Energy Accounts SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS

5. Definition • A sustainable system is one which survives or persists. But there are three additional complicating questions: • (1) What system or subsystems or characteristics of systems persist, or do we want to persist? • (2) For how long? • (3) When do we assess whether the system or subsystem or characteristic has persisted? From: Costanza, R. and B. C. Patten. 1995. Defining and predicting sustainability. Ecological Economics 15:193-196

6. ”Empty World" Model of the Economy Individual Property rights Utility/welfare Private Public Consumption (based on fixed Manufactured Building preferences) capital Goods Cultural Norms and GNP Perfect Substitutability Economic and Education, Training, Labor Policy Research Process Services Between Factors Investment Improvement Land (decisions about, taxes government spending, education, science and technology policy, etc., based on existing property rights regimes)

7. “Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System positive impacts on human capital capacity being, doing, relating Well Being (Individual and having, being Ecological Community) Complex property services/ doing, relating rights regimes amenities - having, Individual Common Public having - being Consumption (based on changing, Solar adapting Wastes Energy preferences) Restoration, Natural Capital Conservation Evolving Goods Education, training, Human Capital Cultural GNP Economic Between Capital Forms and Norms and Limited Substitutability research. Production Policy Services Institutional Process SocialCapital rules, norms, etc. Investment (decisions about, taxes Manufactured Building community spending, Capital education, science and technology policy, etc., based negative impacts on all forms of capital on complex property rights regimes) Materially closed earth system Waste heat From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard. 1997. An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.

8. From: Costanza, R., S. Farber, B. Castaneda and M. Grasso. 2001. Green national accounting: goals and methods. Pp. 262-282 in: Cleveland, C. J., D. I. Stern and R. Costanza (eds.) The economics of nature and the nature of economics. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England

10. ISEW (or GPI) by Column

14. Ecosystem services are the benefits humans derive from ecosystem functioning

15. GUMBO (Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere) From: Boumans, R., R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. Ecological Economics 41: 529-560

16. Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) • was developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services. • is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. • the current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters. • is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. • includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere. • links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet. • simulates the dynamics of eleven major ecosystem goods and services for each of the biomes

17. Millennial Centennial Decadal Integrated History and future Of People on Earth

19. Work in Progress: Valuation of New Jersey’s Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services Contract # SR04-075 New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

20. The Everglades Landscape Model (ELM v2.1) http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/ELM.html The ELM is a regional scale ecological model designed to predict the landscape response to different water management scenarios in south Florida, USA. The ELM simulates changes to the hydrology, soil & water nutrients, periphyton biomass & community type, and vegetation biomass & community type in the Everglades region. Current Developer s South Florida Water Management Distric t H. Carl Fitz Fred H. Sklar Yegang Wu Charles Cornwell Tim Waring Recent Collaborator s University of Maryland, Institute for Ecological Economic s Alexey A. Voinov Robert Costanza Tom Maxwell Florida Atlantic Universit y Matthew Evett

21. The Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Watershed Model s (PLM and GFLM) http://www.uvm.edu/giee/PLM This project is aimed at developing integrated knowledge and new tools to enhance predictive understanding of watershed ecosystems (including processes and mechanisms that govern the interconnect - ed dynamics of water, nutrients, toxins, and biotic components) and their linkage to human factors affecting water and watersheds. The goal is effective management at the watershed scale. Participants Include: Robert Costanza Roelof Boumans Walter Boynton Thomas Maxwell Steve Seagle Ferdinando Villa Alexey Voinov Helena Voinov Lisa Wainger

22. European Union • EEA. Core set of indicators (CSI) • European policies • 11 topics. 1 level. 37 indicators. • European Commission. EUROSTAT. List of sustainable development indicators • European SD strategy • 10 themes. 3 levels. 155 indicators.

23. Taxonomy • Definition of Sustainability Indicator (SI): many as SD definitions and approaches. • Used everywhere since the Agenda 21(1992). • SI as a measure/assessment of: • The state of the environment (QUANTITY & QUALITY MEASURE) • The quality of life (WELL-BEING MEASURE) • The durability of the actual path. (DURABILITY MEASURE) • The impact of activities/settlements/firms in the above (A21, Social Corporative Responsibility…)

24. Taxonomy • Types of Sustainability Indicators (Examples): • Single/Set/System of indicators (EEA signals/PSR framework/Models) • Composite indicator or index (ISEW, GPI, ESI) • Monetary terms (Green GNP) • physical/energetic terms (EF/EXERGY) • Stock (EF) • Flow terms (MFA) • One Dimensional SI (just the ecological one) • Comprehensive SI (social/ecological/economic dimensions)

25. Trends • Heterogeneity and spread of methodologies • Rise of physical indicators of sustainability • Rise of composite indicators • Preference for the predefinition of key aspects or strategic areas to indicate. • Disuse of PSR framework (OCDE). • Use of a relative or comparative approach. • Global/National level: Ecological Footprint and key sets of indicators (climatic change). • Regional level: key sets of indicators (UE). MFA. • Urban sphere: Quality and way of life indicators. Best Practices as indicators.