1 / 18

Utility Model for Minimizing Risk

Utility Model for Minimizing Risk. Chandru Mirchandani Lockheed-Martin August 9, 2004. MIRCHANDANI. 1. P115/MAPLD2004. Introduction. To meet… System Objectives Develop a Model to accept… Reduced Capability Alternatives for Implementation By developing a Utility Model….

Download Presentation

Utility Model for Minimizing Risk

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Utility Model for Minimizing Risk Chandru Mirchandani Lockheed-Martin August 9, 2004 MIRCHANDANI 1 P115/MAPLD2004

  2. Introduction • To meet… • System Objectives • Develop a Model to accept… • Reduced Capability • Alternatives for Implementation • By developing a Utility Model…. MIRCHANDANIMIRCHANDANI 2 P115/MAPLD2004

  3. Problem Statement • Requirement: Display sensor data in near-real time • Constraints: Within Cost and Schedule and acceptable Quality • Information: Uncertain…to make a selection with lowest risk of failure Solution………...Utility Model MIRCHANDANI 3 P115/MAPLD2004

  4. Conceptual Framework • Develop Criteria for System Acceptance • Rank Attributes in order of preference • Evaluate Attributes with respect to meeting objectives • Quantify evaluations based on measurable metrics MIRCHANDANI 4 P115/MAPLD2004

  5. Option 1 • Software solution to extract and display data…….. • S1 = Data Source • S2 = Ingest System • S3 = Storage System • S4 = Data Processor (S4-A) • S5 = Data Display Processor (S5-A) MIRCHANDANI 5 P115/MAPLD2004

  6. Option 2 • Hardware solution to extract data and Software solution to display data…….. • S1 = Data Source • S3 = Storage System • S4 = Data Processor (S4-B) • S5 = Data Display Processor (S5-B) MIRCHANDANI 6 P115/MAPLD2004

  7. Option 3 • Hardware solution to extract data and display data…….. • S1 = Data Source • S3 = Storage System • S4 = Data Processor (S4-B) • S5 = Data Display Processor (S5-B) MIRCHANDANI 7 P115/MAPLD2004

  8. Methodology • Select weighting for the success or failure criteria based on criticality • Evaluate cost based on Re-Engineering, Implementation and Schedule • Evaluate cost of failure based on Loss of Performance and Requirements • Evaluate the Probability of Success and Failure • Factor in the Uncertainty in Evaluation MIRCHANDANI 8 P115/MAPLD2004

  9. Metrics • Expected Value of Success MIRCHANDANI 9 P115/MAPLD2004

  10. Decision Tree Decision Point MIRCHANDANI 10 P115/MAPLD2004

  11. Uncertainty • Uncertainty in how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ is the evaluation • Probability of Success or Failure based on the Uncertainty MIRCHANDANI 11 P115/MAPLD2004

  12. Value Function • Based on Success of the Option If Option S is successful…… Value (S) = w(x1 + x2+ x3+ x4+ x5+ x6+ x7)/7 = Ss If Option S Fails……….. Value (F) = 1 - w(x1 + x2+ x3+ x4+ x5+ x6+ x7)/7 = Sf ………….together with metrics MIRCHANDANI 12 P115/MAPLD2004

  13. Measures • Cost of Success = Css = 8T + 30(C+T) • Cost of Failure = REsf(p,r,c,t) = Xsf(C+T) = 0.529(C+T) MIRCHANDANI 13 P115/MAPLD2004

  14. Utility Function For Option A: SS = U(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7) = Css = 8T + 30(C+T) and, SF = U(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7) + REsf(p,r,c,t) = Css + REsf(p,r,c,t) = 8T + 30(C+T) + Xsf(C+T) = 8T + 30(C+T) + 0.529(C+T) MIRCHANDANI 14 P115/MAPLD2004

  15. Decision Process SgYgHg = Probability of Options 1, 2 and 3 all being correctly evaluated P(success with S|Sg) = = 0.62 MIRCHANDANI 15 P115/MAPLD2004

  16. Decision Table MIRCHANDANI 16 P115/MAPLD2004

  17. Utility Function • At each node in the tree, the Decision Maker selects the minima • Finally at the Decision Point the optimal choice is quantitatively provided MIRCHANDANI 17 P115/MAPLD2004

  18. Summary • Tree can be expanded to accommodate more options • Framework can be expanded to include intermediate decision points • Decision points can be analyzed in a dependent manner • Re-evaluation at a node can be enhanced using additional attributes MIRCHANDANI 18 P115/MAPLD2004

More Related