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Finding Reliable Power Supply for the Erongo Region

Finding Reliable Power Supply for the Erongo Region. Arandis Investment Conference PI Shilamba MD: NamPower 4 November 2011. Content. Supply and Demand in Namibia Challenges Update on Projects Successfully Concluded Under Construction In Feasibility NamPower’s focus.

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Finding Reliable Power Supply for the Erongo Region

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  1. Finding Reliable Power Supplyfor theErongo Region Arandis Investment Conference PI Shilamba MD: NamPower 4 November 2011

  2. Content • Supply and Demand in Namibia • Challenges • Update on Projects • Successfully Concluded • Under Construction • In Feasibility • NamPower’s focus

  3. Supply & Demand Situation • Installed generation capacity of 414 MW (Including Anixas) • increase with 92 MW by March 2012 (Ruacana Unit 4) • Transmission Network connected to • Botswana and RSA • Zambia connected via Caprivi Link and providing alternative route to Zimbabwe, DRC and Mozambique • Maximum Demand of 511 MW (incl. Skorpion 580 MW) – Jun 2011 • Imports up to 80% of energy requirements in some periods • Demand growth 2011 • Energy (MWh) = 3.7% (forecast 2012 : 4.4%) • Peak demand (MW) = 3.5% (forecast 2012 : 4.6%)

  4. SAPP Trading Partners

  5. Challenges for the next 5-7 years • Same as SAPP Challenges • General energy shortage • High Demand growth & step loads • Rural Electrification (New connections) • Shortage of resources (HR and Financial) • Struggle to agree electricity pricing path to reflect cost of new build requirements • Little private investment into the Power Sector • The process of ensuring security of supply has been getting steadily harder for several years, but it has not been obvious because NamPower has been effective in dealing with it up to now. • Approaches used successfully to date must now be augmented by new activities

  6. Short Term Critical Supply Project (STCS) • Any base load power station for commissioning only by 2015/2016 • Power supply deficit of 80 MW as from the 2012 winter, increasing to 300 MW by 2015. • Worsened by expiry of ZESA agreement in 2013 • A dedicated team appointed to the project • Solutions will include one or a combination of the following: • New power purchase agreements with SAPP trading partners • New renewable and PPA with renewable IPP’s • Increased DSM programs • Upgrading of existing plants • PPA’s with other IPP (Arandis Power) • Final project plan expected by Dec 2011

  7. Critical to implement base load power plant • Capacity constraint due to absence of any new base-load plant • A base-load power station is essential by January 2016 • Not many indigenous large plant option available • Guidelines: Energy White Paper => Serve 75% of energy and 100% peak • All base-load plants have Forex components that need to be accounted for • Electricity Tariffs • Recent average tariffs increase of 18.28% • Upcoming capital investment of up to N$14 billion over the next 4 to 5 years • It is estimated that the cost of supply to NamPower in 2015/16 can double to N$1,00/kwh compared to the current levels of 45c/kwh • Need for GRN, ECB and NamPower to agree on a smooth upward pricing path with the view to avoid future price shocks, especially when a base-load power station will be commissioned by 2016

  8. Conceptualization: Nuclear, Municipal Waste, CSP F U N N E L Investigation: Wave Energy P R O J E C T Feasibility: LOHEPS, Recycled fuel, Erongo Coal, Baynes, Kudu Gas, Wind, Solar PV, Zizabona, Biomass, Van Eck Rehabilitation Implementation: 4th Unit Ruacana Operation: Hwange, DSM, Caprivi Link, Anixas

  9. Hwange Investment PPA (150 MW) effective as from 2008 A good example of regional cooperation Project declared “Power Deal of the Year“ - 2010 Africa Investors: Infrastructure Investment Awards

  10. Caprivi Link Interconnector • Second largest investment in Namibia (NAD 3,2 billion) • Project completed below budget • 300 MW transfer capacity: completed June 2010 with official commissioning on 12 November 2010 • Opportunity to implement phase 2 (additional 300 MW) • Africa Energy Award for “Best Fast Track Energy Project”

  11. Anixas • 22.5 MW Diesel Generators at Walvis Bay • Project cost N$ 375 million • NAD 250 million grant from GRN • NAD 125 million from NamPower balance sheet • Additional land adjacent to Paratus to build Anixas and new Transmission Station • Design Philosophy to allow for future extensions • COD - 21 July 2011 • Official inauguration 03 November 2011

  12. 4th Unit Ruacana • Installation of a 4th unit at Ruacana Hydro Power Station • Increase capacity with 92 MW • Project Cost NAD 750 million • Project Dates: • Commencement date was 27 March 2009 • Work on site commenced during July 2010 • Commercial operation is expected first quarter of 2012

  13. Erongo Coal Power Station Establishment of a coal fired power station in the Erongo region has been identified as part of NamPower’s Security of Supply plan NamPower seriously in consideration of this option as it can be fast tracked Medium sized capacity (150 to 300) MW) Modular development allowing phased developments up to 800 MW

  14. Progress and timelines required • Project definition to be confirmed by Jan 2012 • EIA Scoping to be concluded and Technical concept confirmed (including environmental mitigation requirements) • Coal options confirmed and Coal value chain optimised • Land procurement started • Water supply solution determined • Indicative costing (+- 25%) of complete project (power station, transmission, other infrastructure) • Indicative project schedule to implement complete project • Ready to start Tender/procurement process – April 2012 • Final investment decision - June 2012 • With good governance support Commercial Operation possible by 2015

  15. Critical Considerations • Fast track options • Clean Coal Technology selection to allow fuel flexibility • Coal sourcing options and cost • Coal handling capacity at Walvis Bay port • Land Availability and timing to procure • Water availability and supply options • Proximity to existing infrastructure necessary to keep cost down • Infrastructure (road, rail, transmission grid, water supply etc) • Economic environment (incl. tourism and sustainable development plans of region/towns) • Environmental issues such as protected areas and biodiversity NamPower 16

  16. Environment and Site Selection ESEIA study completed in June 2009, now update of study required: Sites considered and evaluated through a comparative Multi Decision Making Criteria Model considering technical, biophysical and socio-economic issues: Close to Walvis behind Dune 7 North of Swakop Site East of Arandis Site West of Arandis Outcome of evaluation: Site East of Arandis ranked as most preferred

  17. Other Generation Projects Kudu Gas NamPower mandated to develop power station in terms of the 2004 Cabinet resolution Promising,cooperation with upstream parties, favourable gas price Strong interest from Eskom and CEC Well researched data available FID expected by middle 2012 Baynes Hydro 500 MW mid-merit/peaking Power Station on Kunene River Techno-economic and EIA studies underway, to be completed by the end of 2011 Political will from both parties to expedite project Coordinated by the governments of Angola and Namibia through the PJTC Could be commissioning by 2018

  18. Renewable Power • Wind • Diaz Power - +/-44MW at Luderitz • Innowind – +/-50MW at Walvis Bay • Large Solar PV • 3 x +/-10MW throughout Namibia • Small Solar PV connected to grid (Net-metering) • Discussions ongoing with ECB on integration of such systems • Medium Solar PV Hybrid Systems • Tsumkwe recently commissioned • Lessons learned will be implemented on next project • Biomass (Invader Bush) • Draft Feasibility study to be concluded end 2011 • Harvesting of woodchips • Transport and/or on-site processing e.g. Torrefaction process

  19. Concluded Add capacitor banks at Omburu Substation as required during certain operating conditions 2nd Omburu-Khan 220kV required for contingency constraint 220kV Khan-Trekkopje and 132kV Trekkopje-WlotzkaBaken development Planned Kuiseb Substation upgrade to 220/132kV (current 220/66kV) Provide for upgrades to customers in area (Walvis Bay, mining, wind farms) Timing determined by first customer upgrade (Walvis Bay 2012/3) 220kV Khan-Kuiseb link System strengthening and supply to proposed uranium mines Timing determined by customer development (Husab 2014) In Tendering Phase Replace old 220kV line between Rössing and Walmund with 220kV double circuit West Coast Developments

  20. NamPower’s Objectives and priorities Next 4 years Commissioning of a base load power station Successful management of the short term critical power supply situation Increased contribution to rural electrification Improvement of Corporate social responsibility Continuation of internal productivity and efficiency measures This financial year (2011/12) Keep lights on through out the year (no load shedding) Investment decision on a base load power plant PPA with IPP’s (wind, solar PV, HFO/slop) Tariffs to reflect Cost of Supply

  21. NAMPOWER Thank you

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