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Is there something going on here?

The Invisible Internet How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World Sponsor: Association for Corporate Growth Speaker: John B. Landry Lead Dog Ventures john@johnlandry.com. Is there something going on here?. H1 2002 Forecasts

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Is there something going on here?

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  1. The Invisible InternetHow Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our WorldSponsor: Association for Corporate GrowthSpeaker: John B. LandryLead Dog Venturesjohn@johnlandry.com

  2. Is there something going on here? • H1 2002 Forecasts • 1 Billion Wireless Subscribers (was 2004!) • Wireless Phones > WW Wired Phones • Mobile Internet Users > PC Internet Users • Verizon offers 300Kbps CDMA Network • Nov 2000: 10B WW SMS Messages Sent • Growth Rate: 50% / Month! • 2005: 5.4B Installed Bluetooth Modules • Samsung Demo’s Video Cell Phone Source: Nokia, Merrill Lynch, NTT

  3. Another Inflection Point?Oh No.. Not Again! • Moore’s Law Continues • Processor Price Perfomance Doubles Every 18 Months • Gilder’s Law Continues • Bandwidth Multiplies 3X Every 3 Years • Metcalfe’s Law Continues • The Value of a Network Increases to the Square of the Number of Participants • IBM’s Law Continues • Storage Price Performance Doubles Every 12 Months All These Innovations Are Now Being Applied to Wireless!

  4. Comic Strip?.. Or Reality Check?

  5. LAN WAN LAN PAN Agenda: Understanding Wireless …for Fun & Profit GeographyOff-Campus Open Areas On-Campus Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel Personal Space Office, Briefcase, Person Technology Off-Campus Cellular – Kilometers On-Campus 802.11b10’s – 100’s Meters Personal Space BlueTooth 1-10 Meters

  6. Mobile Business Drivers U.S. Mobile Worker Market • New Business Expansion • Technology Advances • Better mobile devices and supporting connectivity software • High-speed Internet access • Growing Mobile Solutions • Individual Adoption of Mobile Devices • Blurring of Personal/Professional Time

  7. SHD Projected Growth Rates Source: IDC 49% CAGR 163% CAGR 36% CAGR 22% CAGR

  8. Smart Phone Growth Soars Worldwide! • Europe will pioneer launch followed quickly by Japan, AP and US • Smart phone products will be built first on GSM, then migrated to 2.5G and 3G wireless networks • Current browser phones will slow adoption of SmartPhones • Symbian, Microsoft, and Palm all investing heavily in this area

  9. WAN LAN LAN PAN The “Off-Campus” Wireless ‘Net G2.5 and G3 Networks Are Happening Here! Jumping to Conclusions? Verizon & Sprint Customers Win.. AT&T, Metricom and Non-CDMA Customers Lose

  10. Smart Handheld Devices Smart Handheld Cell Phone Notebook Smaller Size Larger Info Access Usage Info Creation Higher Mobility Lower Phone Manufacturer Computer Subsidized Distribution Direct

  11. Samsung’s Color VOD PhoneIntroduced 5/16/2001! • CDMA2000 1x (Verizon/Sprint PCS) • 144Kbps, 200,000 Colors • Built-in Camera, MPEG4 Decoder, Stereo Player

  12. Handheld Companions OS Platform Battles Continue • Palm OS will continue to dominate • Windows CE gains share with Pocket PC • EPOC (Symbian) maintains niche status and expands with new form factors

  13. Personal Companions Go Wireless • Wireless Includes Integrated (Palm VII) and Add-Ons (Novatel) • Over 50% wireless in 2004 • Low-end products remains strong diluting wireless • Integrated voice confuses market segmentation

  14. Samsung SPH-1300 Hybrid Wireless Digital Assistant • 8-bit Color Display (160x240) • Size: 4.9” x 2.3” x .82” • Weight: 5.5 oz • On-screen Keypad + Graffiti-Pad • Palm Apps + Voice Memo, Voice Dialing, Speakerphone • Active PDA while on phone! • Shipping: September 2001 • Price: “about same as Palm PDA”

  15. Handspring’s VisorPhone Palm OS World-Phone & Wireless Modem • A Better Mobile Phone? • Dial from Address Book • Speed Dial with a tap! • Caller ID and Log • Simple Conference Calling • Wireless Internet Access • 14.4 GSM Cell Modem • eMail & Web Surfing • Short Message Service • SMS Messages Booming • Pager-like Messages

  16. The Key Inhibitors: UX and Speed • The UX (User Experience) Lessons • Microsoft went nowhere until Windows • WWW went nowhere till Mosaic • AOL, Yahoo are an even better UX! • Mobile Data Success Requires a Dramatically Better (and faster) UX! • Input Methods: • Keys, Keypads (RIM, Ericsson’s Chatboard, Handwriting Reco, TouchScreen, Speech Reco • Output Displays: • 100 x 65 large graphic • 120 x 100 large graphics 4 - 8 grey levels • 160 x 120 256 colors • or a BFHRC Display using Bluetooth!

  17. The “On-Campus” Wireless ‘Net Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel • IEEE 802.11b Wireless LANs • 2.4ghz Band – 11Mbps • Viable Alternative to Wired LANS • Components • Access Point / Gateway Bridge • Client: PCMCIA or Integrated • Your Home LAN Infrastructure? • IEEE 802.11a Wireless LANs • 5ghz Band - 54Mbps! • Shorter Range, More Power • Same Money.. But No Interoperability! • Cisco’s Acquisition of Radiata • Wireless Backbone Networks?

  18. Toshiba’s Libretto Shape of things to come?.. the 'small book' • 600mhz Crusoe CPU with 128/256MB RAM, 10-30GB HD, 10" TFT screen (1280x600), Windows ME, 1 IEEE1394 (FireWire/iLink) video port, PCMCIA Type II slot, 56Kb modem, LaLaVoice Japanese speech recognition software, 2 USB ports, and Bluetooth wireless, 3.5-4.5 hour battery

  19. Microsoft’s Tablet PC The Concept of “Tablet Computing” • Windows Computer (Whistler) • Word, Excel, PowerPoint, IE • Primary Computer w/ stored eMail, Calendar, Databases, etc. • Writing Rec, but Ink as Ink! • Sounds like Pen Computing? • Battery Life • Display Resolution • Recognition • Memory • Wireless 802.11 & Bluetooth

  20. Electrolux’s ScreenFridge Why? The fridge is the natural place for communication in every family. • Video Family Post-It Notes • eMail & Web Surfing • Narrowcasted News • Customized Radio • Home Security • Food Management • Digital Cook Book / Timer • Server?

  21. Home Wireless IP Network Fridge Server PC MS X Box MP3 Appl Monitor Rec/AMP broadcast TV HDTVTuner CATV Modem CATV Network Internet Home LANs & Convergence? • Fridge Server: • Store & Deliver Audio, Photos, Video • Encode/Store Broadcast Content (TIVO, Replay) • Computers: • PCs, Game Consoles, • Appliances • HDTV Monitors • TV: • Players of Encoded & CATV content

  22. Reverse Mobility Moving the Computation… Not the Computer Computational Napster… Sell / Donate your idle cycles! Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence THINK is a computer-aided drug design program that models interaction between potential drug molecules and a target protein that is involved in the growth of cnacer. Finding positive interactions… could lead to a cure.”

  23. WAN LAN LAN PAN Bluetooth: No Flash in the PAN! • Watch Out! Massive Growth Ahead! • Short range wireless technology • Small size, low cost ($5 target) • Up to 720 kbps (also supports voice) • Low power consumption • Massive industry support • Spec (1.1) should freeze NOW.. And then the fun begins! • Bluetooth enables • Wireless connectivity • Data synchronization • Seamless service

  24. Bluetooth Enabled Devices:Projected Annual Shipments • Industry Convergence • 9 Promoter Companies • 3Com, Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Lucent, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia and Toshiba • 2000+ Adopter Co’s • Tech Specs • Range 10/100m • Gross bit rate 1Mbps • Max Asymmetric data rate - 723kbps • Max voice channels per link - 3 • Max Piconets - 8

  25. Bluetooth Application ExamplesWhy did the cell phone call the microwave? Updating Navigation equipment from computer route planner Synchronisation of portable devices with desktop PC Headset to phone connection Access to phone book from PDA/HPC Connection of computer to mouse, video camera, still camera... IBM’s Linux Watch

  26. Camera: Custom CMOS sensor, 100 FPSProcessor: Proprietary ARM-based ASIC at 70 MHzCommunication device: Bluetooth transceiverBattery: TBAInk cartridge: Standard DIN 16654Illumination: IR LEDResolution: 0.03 mmWeight: 45g Paper quality: StandardPrinting technique: Standard offsetPattern ink: Standard blackDot spacing:Nominally 0.3 mm (0.01 inch.)Total pattern size:73 000 000 000 000 letter size pagesMinimum readable pattern area:2x2 mm (0.08x0.08 inch) Extreme Bluetooth: Anoto Revolutionizing Writing Forever!!

  27. In Summary The New Wireless Internet, which extends the reach and capabilities of the wired Internet, will be the driver of another boom in innovation and wealth creation. Once again this massively disruptive technology will upset traditional business models and wreak havoc on conventional assumptions about work, home, family life and education. You’ve been warned!

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