1 / 13

Political-Economy Trends and the Car Industry

Political-Economy Trends and the Car Industry. CAR Conference 2011. SA Economics. SA economy tripped twice since 1994 – in both cases because of global forces (1998 & 2009). Growth restored after 2009 recession: From -1.7% in 2009 to 2.7% in 2010 to 3.4% in ’11 ?? Current consensus:

kana
Download Presentation

Political-Economy Trends and the Car Industry

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Political-Economy Trends and the Car Industry CAR Conference 2011

  2. SA Economics • SA economy tripped twice since 1994 – in both cases because of global forces (1998 & 2009). • Growth restored after 2009 recession: • From -1.7% in 2009 to 2.7% in 2010 to 3.4% in ’11 ?? • Current consensus: • Rising to 4.4% in 2013 ???? • Average from 1995 to 2010 (16 yrs): 3,3%. • Average 16 years before 1993: 1,55%. • “Muddle thru” economy: 3,25%.

  3. The Muddle Through Economy • Pushing SA growth down: • Global environment. • Domestically: political confusion; strikes; inequality. • Huge social and human deficits; crime, health, education. • Tensions of Transition: mining & agriculture. • Pushing SA growth up: • Investment: from 4% in 2000 to 6,5% in 2007 to 8,4% in the current cycle to 2013. • Building blocks of the 3Ms. (“Swing to the Left”). • Reasonable productivity growth. • SA’s increasing relations with BRICs. • Strong private sector institutions (compare Russia). • Thus 3.25%.

  4. Population Growth • 1980s 2,5%. (5,8) • 1996 2,0%. • 20101,06%. (2,38) • 2014 0,9%. • Total population now 50,6 million. 1,6%

  5. More work, more unemployment

  6. Remedies for Unemployment • Higher economic growth: • Commodity economy; need diversification. • New Growth Path: • Promise: 5 mio in 10 yrs. • Pre-condition for success…..? • What can happen anyway: 3,0 million jobs. • Potpourri of measures: • wage subsidy (R5 bil) & Jobs Fund (R9 bil). • Social grant system: 3,5% of GDP. • Public Works Programme, incl CWP & “TfF”: • 4,5 mio “job opportunities” to 2014; 4 mths & 6 mths. • 625 000 in first year. • Deregulated labour market (no chance).

  7. Inequality

  8. Moderation Wins Out (or Some Critical U-turns) • “Swing to the left” post-Polokwane. • 4 Labour Bills on inter alia labour broking. • NHI proposals: • From ideology to greater efficiency. • Green Paper on Land Reform: • From ideology to burocracy. • Bill on Protection of Information. • Reaction against Malema and ANCYL. • Enquiry into the Arms Deal…?

  9. Moderation Wins Out • Why is this? • Open society (forces and counter-forces; checks & balances). • Open economy. • We speak and act our fears, not rational analysis; debate of hatred & resentment.

  10. Living with Ambiguity

  11. Getting Richer 17 yrs +28% 25 lost years 19 yrs -12%

  12. What Is Possible in SA (Black Swans Permitting!) • Economic growth and demography combine to give SA a unique opportunity. • For the low point in 1993 to 2010 – 17 yrs 28%. • Just keep on doing it: • @ 3,25% p.a. & 11,5 years, incomes rise 28%. • @ 2,55% p.a. & 17 yrs, incomes rise 28%.

More Related