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Prof. Peter McKiernan:

‘Thinking Long’ in ‘Managing Change’. Fife Partnership: “The Gathering” The Vine, Dunfermline 2010. School of Management, University of St Andrews. Prof. Peter McKiernan:. Predictable Surprises?.

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Prof. Peter McKiernan:

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  1. ‘Thinking Long’ in ‘Managing Change’ Fife Partnership: “The Gathering” The Vine, Dunfermline 2010 School of Management, University of St Andrews Prof. Peter McKiernan:

  2. Predictable Surprises? “Almost all of us, including me, who were involved in the financial system that is to say, financial firms, regulators, rating agencies, analysts, and commentators missed the powerful combination of factors that led to this crisis and the serious possibility of a massive crisis” Robert Rubin, former treasury secretary, former Chair of the executive committee of Citigroup’s board of directors “Nobody saw this coming...S&P and Moody’s didn’t see it coming Bear Sterns certainly didn't see it coming, Merrill Lynch didn’t see it coming. Nobody saw this coming.” Angelo Mozilo, former CEO and Chairman of Countrywide Financial

  3. Postcard from the future

  4. Who uses Scenarios? • Edinburgh City to explore the future of the city • Royal Dutch Shell to anticipate the oil shocks • Grampian Region to assess life after oil • U/Distillers to analyse the spread of Islam in Turkey • Unilever to form a new channel strategy in Russia • Scotland to assess the pathways for a new nation • Jersey to evaluate an e-commerce strategy • Stirling to integrate several strategic planning exercises • Fife to inform the Community Plan • Dyslexia Scotland to inform the 5 year plan • EU Commission for Future of Automobile Sector

  5. Fife Scenario Process-Overall Aim Provide scenario planning and related strategic management methods that best equip Fife Partnership to manage and adapt to change in the next ten year community planning cycle from 2010.

  6. Fife’s Key Drivers

  7. Public Sector Reform Infrastructure Technology Fife Partnership Final Uncertainty Matrix Importance Demographics Economy CO2 Sustainable Communities Inequality Uncertainty

  8. Group 1: Quick Recovery Missing Targets Group 2: Quick Recovery Reaching Targets Group 4: Slow Recovery Reaching Targets Group 3: Slow Recovery Missing Targets 2 x 2 Scenario Matrix Economy Carbon Emissions

  9. Thank you. 12

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