Recent Applications of Agricultural Water Models

1. Recent Applications of Agricultural Water Models Duncan MacEwan ERA Economics California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Technical Workshop Economic Modeling of Agricultural Water Use and Production January 31, 2014

2. Some important points • Integration with other models • Evaluate simultaneous (and inter-related) policy changes • Linkage to I/O models • Motivating the analysis • Key question and client needs • Political sensitivity • Important innovations • Data requirements • Time consuming and difficult • Examples • Yolo Bypass • Water Markets • Other recent applications

3. Yolo Bypass – Motivation • Policy application • Client: Yolo County and now Reclamation • Evaluate economic impacts of changes in the frequency and duration of bypass inundation • Data requirements • What is grown in the bypass, and where? • Crop budgets • Flood inundation footprint • Key considerations • Spatial scale • Grower planting decisions

4. Yolo Bypass – Application • Model framework • Bypass Production Model • Regional agricultural economic model • HEC-RAS • Other models • DayCent • Crop growth model • IMPLAN • Multiplier effects – jobs, taxes, value added

15. Yolo Bypass – Summary • Key results • Linkage: Flood – Crop Growth – Economics • Coordination with bypass landowners • Comprehensive data collection • Engage stakeholders for project approval

16. Water Markets – Motivation • Policy application • Use the SWAP and CALVIN models to evaluate South-of-Delta drought water markets • Using 2009 drought as an example • Data requirements • Standard SWAP data requirements • Linkage to CALVIN • Transfer capacities and constraints • Key considerations • Evaluate the economic and hydrologic gradient of water transfers • Water in California varies greatly by space and time

17. Water Markets – Application • Model framework • SWAP • Agricultural economics • CALVIN • Transfer capacities and system linkage • Calibrate against standard SWAP data • Policy evaluation • 2009 drought • Groundwater replacement • Local supplies

21. Southof the Delta Water Trade Analysis • No market adjustment • Revenue loss $512 million • Local market effects • Water traded 283K Ac ft • Net revenue gain $109.5 million

22. Water Markets – Summary • Key results • New market links require new market institutions • Important to let economic gradient inform water transfers • Linkage between SWAP and CALVIN

23. Other Applications I • Santa Clara Valley Water District • Economic impacts of changes in the agricultural groundwater charge • Solano County • Economic impacts of BDCP Conservation Measure 4 • Solano County and Cache Slough ROA • Diageo Wine Supply and Demand • Model of wine supply chain management and response to market shocks

24. Other Applications II • Salinas Valley Model • Genes to Growers USDA project • Integrate agronomic information into Salinas Valley model to evaluate changes in nitrogen and water use efficiency • SWAP – Groundwater Dynamics • Project under way to link SWAP and C2VSim • CVP - Integrated Resource Plan • SWAP model linkage to: • Water, climate, costs, demands, and urban growth

25. Other Applications III • North of the Delta Offstream Storage Investigation • SWAP model update and application to federal feasibility analysis • National Economic Development (NED) Benefits Summary Workbook • Pre-processing adjustments • Consistent interest rates • Disaggregate input cost data • Power costs • Post-processing adjustments • Input costs • Fallow land costs • Management charge • Federal discount rate • Normalized crop prices

26. Summary • Example applications highlight: • Integrated modeling capabilities • Project-specific motivating factors • Data requirements • Applications in progress: • Remote sensing, calibration methods, dynamics • Richard Howitt @ 4pm