Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th September 2006 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning

2. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century.

3. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making World 8th Power in S&T by 2025 Rapid Progress all the area in S&T related activity Corporate Research Institutes 10,270(2004) 44% (since 2000) Technological Competitiveness 2nd (IMD, 2005) 7th(WEF, 2005) # of Researcher 156,220 FTE 44% (since 2000) New S&T Administration Since 2004 SCI Paper 19,279(2004) 55% (since 2000) US Patents 4,428 34% (since 2000) R&D Budget 28,774(milliom US$ PPP) 56% (since 2000) Past and Present of Korea’s S&T

4. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Government R&D in Korea Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05) MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture,Transportation,etc.) MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy MOST : Ministry of Science & TechnologyMIC : Ministry of Information & Communication OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation

5. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Others Agencies Government R&D Related Organizational Structure President N S T C * MOST Vice Prime Ministry OSTI MOCIE MIC KISTEP KOSEF ITEP IITA Main Bodies of R&D(Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc) *NSTC : National Science & Technology Council

6. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea 2002 2004 2000 2001 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Dual Use Tech. Program HAN Project (G7) Space Tech. Development Program MOST MOST National R&D Programs Creative Research Initiatives NRL Program 21C Frontier Program Nuclear Energy Development Program Next-generationgrowth engine program Basic Science Program MOCIE Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program) Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program Information & Telecommunication Technology Program MIC Dual Use Tech. Program MOD Health & Medical Technology Program MOHW Environmental Technology Program MOEnv Key Environment Tech. Program Agricultural Technology Program MOAF SMBA Small Business Innovation Research MOE Academia Support Program BK21 Program

7. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making BUT, Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years.

8. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty • High oil price • - 97% import of energy • Energy-intensive industry • (ex.steel Ind.) • Increasing risk due to new Tech • Advances in NT, BT, ET • Fast-follower  World leader Fast Ageing society -fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06) -Net decrease in population after 2020 Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional North Korea • FTA & economic Block • 38.3% GDP dependence on Export • Rising China • -Nutcraker Situation

9. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making challenges in S&T area Increasing Technology Trade Deficits Weak Basic Research a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young "Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast.“ -Paul J.H. Schoemaker

10. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T? Foresight Activities

11. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

12. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Foresight is booming everywhere in the world • Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T • in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues • In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy • Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms. • Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders. • Especially in the science and technology related area. • The need for priorities in science and technology • No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending • This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.

13. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Currently On-going TF activity in Korea

14. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST • S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001) • Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP) • Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life • Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for 2008-2012))  1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP *STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)  3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.

15. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : Characteristics • Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders • Application of Delphi methods foremerging technology that may solve the future needs and issue • Scenario writing for future society • · Future prospect, needs/issues and technology • · Internal consistency • · Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society • Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society Time Horizon : up to year 2030 Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12 TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea

16. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : Procedures 2nd Phase 1st phase Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society (4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories (Dec. 2003) Future Technology Subjects and Delphi Survey Analysis (Aug. 2004) 3rd Phase Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec. 2004)

17. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels Delphi Survey Provide List of Future Technologies Scenario

18. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : Results • Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight) • - Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues • - Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety) • Identify 761 future technology subjects • - 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015 • - Korea is still lagging all future technology area • - Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area • - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years) • Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public • Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report • Government took follow-up action quickly •  Future Strategic Technology

19. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology Initiative • Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results • Critical attributes of national strategic technology • Emerging • Disruptive • Converging • Strategic area where government should be involved

20. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Survey from Industrial & R&D Inst. 3rd Technology Foresight Overseas DB Future Tech. Candidate DB (KISTEP) 1st Screening (Expert Panel) Survey & 2nd Screening Future Strategic Tech. Priority Setting Procedure

21. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology 21 • Digital convergence • Smart computing • Nano and functional material Economic Impact • Information security • Super efficient transportation • Bio-resource • Satellite • fusion • Cognitive science and humanoid robot • Culture contents • Regenerative medicine Quality of Life Public Need • Bio-safety & defense • Drug discovery & personalized medicine • Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation • Ubiquitous civil infrastructure • Hazardㆍdisaster forecast • Next generation nuclear energy and safety • Clean and renewable energy • Global observing system • Climate/weather forecasting • Marine territory management

22. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Technology Roadmapping in Korea

23. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Brief History of TRM in Korea • Public Sector • MOCIE • Industrial Technology Roadmap • 1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003. 6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9) • Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones. • MOST • National Technology Roadmap(2002) • MIC • u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products) • Private Sector • Samsung Electronics • Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

24. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making NTRM : Approach Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM • Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications • Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach • NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies Inter-Government CoordinationTaskForce NSTC Office KISTEP Project Team NTRM Head Council Vision IV Committee Vision V Committee Vision I Committee Vision II Committee Vision III Committee TRM team A TRM team B TRM team C TRM team N ………..

25. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 2 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia 3 Advancing the E2 Frontier 4 Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today 5 Improving National Safety and Prestige NTRM by 5 Visions Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society 1

26. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence

27. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Strategic products and Functions Direction of Development Key Technologies Vision Optical Internet Technology High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology New Semiconductor Device Technology Information- Knowledge- Intelligence Society Digital Convergence Intelligent Network Technology Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication High Density Storage Technology Intelligent Computing Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology Ubiquitous Network Digital Signal Processing Technology Mobile & Wearable IT Device Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology Digital Broadcasting Technology E-marketplace Technology Contents Next Generation Information System Technology Innovation in Contents & Service E-Commerce S/W Standard/Design/Reuse E-Finance Technology Business Service Information Search DBMS Technology Digital Information Design Technology Knowledge/Information Security Information Security Technology Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization Intelligent Man-Machine Interface Digital Contents Authoring Technology Intelligent Robot Game Engine Technology Ambient Intelligence Intelligent Home Appliance Cyber Communication Technology Culture Original Form Restore Technology Intelligent Building/Home Art Intelligent Technology Intelligent Transport System MEMS Technology Intelligent Medical System Home Network Technology Intelligent Home Appliance Technology Display Technology Bio-Diagnosis Technology

28. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Ubiquitous Network (2.03 trillion $ in 2005)) Mobile & Wearable IT Device (73.3 billion $ in 2005) Very High E-Commerce (28.7 trillion $ in 2010) Culture Contents (1.17 trillion $ in 2005) Intelligent Computing (765 billion $ in 2004) Digital Convergence (570 billion $ in 2004) Intelligent Transport System (425 billion $ in 2015) High Economic Impact Man-Machine Interface Intelligence (Creating high-value -added, Complex products Knowledge/Information Security (30 billion $ from 2005) Intelligent Home Appliance (360 billion $ in 2005) Middle Intelligent Building/Home (15 trillion in 2010) High Business Service (157 trillion won in 2010) Intelligent Medical System (Creating new markets, reducing medical costs) Low Middle Intelligent Robot (17 billion $ in 2005 Low Very Low Potential for success Very High Very Low Low High Middle Strategic Importance Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions

29. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making high low ● basic research ⊙ international collaboration ◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing R&D strategy Importance ■▣ □ High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication High Competitiveness of domestic technology Medium Low ■● narrowband CDMA modem wideband CDMA modem ■◎ QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code ■● High-speed packet modem ■● Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR ■● Technology ▣◎ Fixed ATM/IP ■● IP-based RAN IP-based RAN with smart antenna High-speed adaptive RAN ■● ■● ■● Wireless IP core tech. (QoS, Handoff,Resource management) ▣◎ Network interworking(GW) Homogeneous network Integration ▣● Active core network ■● DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements ▣◎ ▣● ALL-IP core network ■● ▣● high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps ■● ▣● Adhoc, Bluetooth PAN 2007 Product 2002 2012 2G cellular system HMI/Hot Spot system Cdma20001x EV system 4G mobile comm. Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV W-CDMA system/ HSDPA

30. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company • AGTO : based in IBM GTO •  Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry • Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones • Exponential and Threshold • How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses • Understand Customer Challenges • Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company • Future Technology Center –Research Organization • Sectoral Technology Forecasting • Siemens : Picture of Future • Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

31. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Good signal for FTA • Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit” • More private companies have involved in foresight activity • More article about Future Technologies on newspaper • A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the government • Movement to form “National Strategic unit” • Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…

32. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Challenges • Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea • But there are several things to be addressed. • Capability to run TF (Facilitating) • Not many • Not enough experiences • Methodological Competence • Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better way to do? • What is the best combination of methods • Impact on Policy making • Some, but not Clear yet

33. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Thank you Dr. Byeongwon Park  bpark@kistep.re.kr ☎ 82 2 589 2931