By Dr. Shamshad Ahmed

1. Technology Foresight: Factors for promotion of industrialization in developing countries in general and Nigeria in particular. By Dr. Shamshad Ahmed Professor, School of Chemical and Materials Engineering, NUST, Islamabad Pakistan. Email: shamshad_zaki@hotmail.com

2. 3 deliveries in one workshop • A Man asks a Woman how many children do you have • She says seven boys and six girls • Then he says, that means, thirteen altogether • She responds no one by one

3. Critical Mass Essential for Competing • South Korea during the 60-70s didn’t have the knowledge bedrock to start challenging Europe and Japan • It started off partnering and acquiring critical know-how. Such a head start made it gain pace and in fairly short time the country shifted from being an adopter to trend setter. Example INCO 9 Malaysian conference on nuclear Power Minister revealed 18 nuclear power plants installed since 1072, 20,000 MW plants to build more by 2015 to have 30,000.( Malaysia and china followed suit)

4. Pre-Requisites • Cool temper • Sane and safe environment • Acceptance of alien habits • Wisdom to see long term benefits to all • No ad hocism • No me me culture

5. Oh Fool, Guidance you will get ask for strength, Oh God , Give me Guidance

6. Perquisites for Partnerships • Korean - Chinese • UK Strip Tease • Yorkshire Incident • Lesson – Tolerance is essential for partnership • Trust vs Interest • Intrest Breed trust

7. Better communication between institutes and end users • Whether in Kenya or Iran, I found that people/researchers are hesitant to go to industry expecting or apprehending an unwelcoming attitude. ( Alice in Wonderland) • Projects if organized by industry, this obstacle can be overcome. • At JAERI, Takasaki all research and funds fed by industry. • No mention of old projects, no conjugation.

8. Gender Gap • Environment ought to be conducive to industrialization. Talents of either gender must be exploited to the fullest, also giving them opportunity to realize the challenges and rewards of industry. In Japan, china, Vietnam, the undersigned observed it was more a family affair. In Japan researcher has a share in the company he/she is consulting. • Look at industrialization in broader context, than just the confines of technological fancifulness. • Installation of factories is mere at transfer of equipment, not technology transfer-case of Suzuki car in Pakistan

9. Raw Materials • Most economically viable are the industries for which raw materials is abundantly available, statement is valid for developing countries. • Advance countries can develop sophisticated value added products imported from other countries at considerably cheaper rates. Japan is vivid example. • Existence of high capital intensives equipment such as processing extruder’s electron beam facility, gamma irradiation plant can be an asset for initiating industrial projects. • Nigeria specially blessed because it has a semi commercial gamma irradiation plant and a nuclear reactor. • In Pakistan hydrogel production not possible because of lack of availability of EB.

10. Idea Factories • Identification of projects/priorities at National level a must to avoid waste of money time and resources. At national level priorities determinations in terms of national needs and projects then entrusted to institutes/Universities specialized in the subjects. Example-Moon soil analysis but no analysis of Lagos soil. • Training of academia in disciplines of applied nature. • Research institutes are engaged in either purely academic pursuit with no remote possibility of application in industry or engaged in fancy titled research such as nanotech, robotics (Example of Professor at YRPC) • While imparting training in other countries at MS or PhD topics selected ought to be in disciplines having relevance to the country’s need ----to breed a new task force.

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12. PETER’S PRINCIPLE • The theory that employees within an organization will advance to their highest level of competence and then be promoted to and remain at a level at which they are incompetent." • ... "In a hierarchically structured administration, people tend to be promoted up to their level of incompetence," • Dr. Peters Principal explained more simply, "The cream rises until it sours."

13. Hierarchy Pyramid(Peter’s principle)

14. MURPHY’S LAWS • Work expands to fill the time. • Left to themselves things go from bad to worse. • If there is possibility of several things to go wrong one that does the worse damage will go wrong first. • If every thing seems to be going right you are obviously over looking some thing. • Mother nature is a bitch.

15. Nature favours the favoured

16. Hierarchy minus with less bottlenecks • Hierarchal structures may be altered or modified to permit direct access to funds. Researcher need not beg for every thing (IAEA contract funds versus PSF) • Enthusiasm evaporates by the time sanction arrives.Funds. mobilization is possible through funding of national projects by science foundations, ministry of science etc. • In Denmark/Norway all the projects are submitted to National committee for funding (role of head only administration, RISO lab). • Sustainable development requires decoupling from the lurches of national and natural turbulences and cataclysm (HEC).

17. Hierarchy minus with less bottlenecks Cont.. • Coordinated research programs and technical assistance projects were undertaken by the undersigned which inherently were of applied nature. These fruitfully culminated in achieving finally a breakthrough in commercialization. • Funds facilitate procurement of essential equipment; expedite mobilization travel for field work, and a small honorarium act as incentive for undertaking such projects.

18. SWOT • Strength • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Threats

19. Short Expert Mission/Training Courses • Short expert mission organized to advise a recipient country on specific issues of importance to these countries and to assist designing. • National work plans that are expected to optimize the effective utilization of available facilities. • Or to re orient the recipient institution plans towards more concrete and problem solving activities with the targeted objective of production and quality control.

20. Short Expert Mission/Training Courses • Expert’s assistance can be useful in cutting short the time between initiation of projects and its finalization by a provision of literature (world review) on the status of projects, provision of necessary advice on essential equipment, identifying vendors. • By provision of training to researchers in his institute/country or identifying other institutes. • Finally by provision of advice regarding quality control, familiarity with ASM, ISO and other international standards.(eg. Rodent resistant/flame retardant, New age cables ,Pakistan)

21. Expert missions are Cost effective • The expert mission are cost effective and more efficient because a) It costs less for one person to travel b) More persons from different institutes are trained c) Recipients’ country resources are identified and close harmonization between local institutes is facilitated. (Sri Lanka, Gem authority, furnaces d) Recipient country has the option to organize events according to their convenience, timetable.

22. Brain gain Projects: curtailment of brain drain • Malaysia ,a brain gain project by investing several billion Ringets • Attracting experts from abroad to come and train senior researchers in technologies adaptable or adoptable by existing local industry, mostly with targeted objectives of value addition. • Such projects are conducted in collaboration with one or more industries, as the end user. • Undersigned spent two months at MINT, Bangi Malaysia from 1st June to 31st July 2011 for training research personnel in the art of indigenous development of high specialty called insulations. Trials for factual production of industrial cables were carried out by Wonderful Cable co. Johubaru (monitoring by young people).

23. Pakistan • Pakistan has also learned to partner but in narrow domains. • We have jointly produced a 4th generation fighter jet, world class submarines, stealth frigates and master the exclusives nuclear technology, • Surely we can reverse engineer the “classified know-how” into something that is daily life economy-wide productive----low tech. • We need an open innovative mind and a will to succeed against odds and system. (Nigera)

24. Exploring other Avenues • AFRA, African regional corporative agreement for research, training related to Nuclear sciences & technology (AFRA) • Organization of African Unity (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) • TCDC (Technical Corporation between developing countries may be encouraged (Huge deposits of diamonds in Cameroon-Irradiation in Nigeria)

25. Concluding Remarks • No single factor say equipment, a group of researchers, funds for R&D alone will ever permit acceleration of industrial production nor hasten or expedite technology transfer from institutes to industry. • A sustained concerted effort involving right kind of target with relevance to country’s economic and industrial status, a dedicated well trained group or team, relevant processing equipment, access to quality control labs conforming to international standards and reasonable funds at the disposable of group can lead to indigenous development. • Technology transfer is just one step ahead.

26. Acknowledgments The author would like to thank ISESCO and NOTAP for inviting me as the invited speaker to this prestigious workshop . Thanks are also due to authorities at SCME and Rector NUST for kindly permitting me to attend the workshop.