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Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point

Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point. CAI Fang Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Neoclassical Contracts to Lewisian. This Presentation Intends to. How demographic transition reshaped LM and employment in China

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Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point

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  1. Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point CAI Fang Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

  2. Neoclassical Contracts to Lewisian

  3. This Presentation Intends to • How demographic transition reshaped LM and employment in China • Employment problems mixed by factors of both neoclassical and dual economy characteristics • 3 groups with special vulnerability exposed to cyclical & natural unemp’t with focus on migrant workers

  4. Demographic Transition and Labor Market Outcomes

  5. China Demographic Transition

  6. Demography-resulted Labor Shortage

  7. Labor Force Is Aging

  8. Labor Demand Continues Increasing

  9. Scenarios of Labor Demand

  10. Wages Increases in All Sectors

  11. Challenges Are Brand Newfor Chinese Governments

  12. From Dual to Neoclassical Scenario

  13. Workers’ Expectation Increasing, too

  14. Gov’t Identified 3 Vulnerable Groups

  15. Incomplete Urbanization

  16. Agricultural Labor Is Aging

  17. Migrants’ Insecure Employment

  18. Low Coverage of Social Security

  19. Policy Agenda for New Era • Integrating labor market (hukou reform) • Labor market institutions (collective bargaining) • Broader social protection mechanism • Employment-centered macroeconomic policy

  20. Thank you for attention

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