Climate Research and Information; Challenges and Opportunities of Drought

1. Climate Research and Information; Challenges and Opportunities of Drought In the context of a NOAA Climate Program North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow - 1310 cfs, Observed - 0 Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935 Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Programs

2. New Mandates for Science Information • President Bush directs that research activities provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decision making on climate issues (US Climate Change Science Program [CCSP], July, 2003). • The US CCSP identifies drought as a key science challenge. • “Drought Preparedness” Acts have been introduced in the House and Senate. • Western Governors’ propose a National Integrated Drought Information System. • Department of Interior identifies potential for water supply crises by 2025

3. NOAA Climate Program “To understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond” • Observations, Data Systems, Analysis • Climate Forcing • Predictions, Projections, and Research • Climate Impacts on Marine Ecosystems • Regional Decision Support

4. What Caused the Western Drought? Large-Scale Circulation Pattern During 1999-2003 JET STREAM H H Subtropical Jet (Blocked) During the multi-year drought in the West, abnormally high pressure over the Pacific and western states tended to block storms from penetrating the affected region..

5. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook:Produced Monthly by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Posted on the Internet every month when the CPC long-range outlooks are published and updated when required

6. Colorado River Basin Water Year 2005 Outlook BriefingNovember 9, 2004 Salt Lake City, UT A water supply briefing for interested principal Colorado River stakeholders focusing on seasonal hydroclimatic outlooks for the Water Year 2005 (October 2004–September 2005). The briefing will 1) provide an assessment of current and projected climate conditions and water availability impacting the lower and upper Colorado River Basin, 2) describe the various forecast tools available for seasonal climate and hydrologic predictions and 3) establish a protocol to provide regular updates of these forecast products to interested stakeholders.

7. Reconstructions of Western Drought Droughts over the past two millennia dwarf anything in the modern instrumental record.

8. The U.S. Experiences Strong Decadal Fluctuations in Climate • Major features were • Warm 1950’s and 1990’s • Cool 1960’s and 1970’s • These resulted from • Natural climate variability • Anthropogenic causes • Volcanic and solar effects Wintertime Surface Temperature Anomalies (deg. C)

9. NOAA Uses Computer Models to Develop a Predictive Understanding of Climate Fluctuations Observed Model 1960-1980 1980-2000 A NOAA climate model (GFDL’s) simulates U.S. temperature changes when forced with observed ocean temperatures.

11. Projection of Western Climate to 2050

13. Drought - Future Pressures US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential water supply crises and conflicts in the western US by the year 2025 based on a combination of technical and other factors, including population trends and potential endangered species needs for water. Note:There is an underlying assumption of a statistically stationary climate.

14. NIDIS Data and Information Needs Characterization of drought requires a combination of two types of information: 1. Observations of past and current physical states of the environment and their context within the relevant historical record. 2. Documented impacts on human and natural systems that are a consequence of the physical conditions. • Key Variables for Monitoring Drought • climate data • soil moisture • stream flow • ground water • reservoir and lake levels • short, medium and long range forecasts • vegetation health/stress and fire danger www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf

15. NOAA Programs Supporting the NIDIS • NOAA Climate Services • Contributions from all NOAA Line Offices, Joint Institutes, Regional Integrated Science Assessments, Regional Climate Centers, State Climatologists • NOAA Operational Monitoring and Outlooks • Weekly Drought Monitor and Monthly Drought Outlook • NOAA Research • Applied climate research to understand and predict drought onset, duration, and impacts • NOAA COOP Modernization • Implementation of a National Mesonet will provide near real time climate, weather, and water observations for resource and emergency management

16. CLIMATE OBSERVING NETWORKS The Climate Reference Network (CRN) Temperature, Precipitation NOAA is developing a strategy for an integrated surface observing system that will combine the capabilities of CRN, COOP, ASOS, etc for better climate and weather information. Your requirements are needed. Will we get them from NIDIS?

17. Regional Integrated Science and Assessments(RISAs) • The RISAs provide a direct connection between research and end users. They have a strong focus on drought issues, how current climate products are used and interpreted, and what are the needs for next generation regional climate information products.

18. Regional Climate CoresCoordination of Climate Information Coordination/management State entities Federal* research Federal* operations NOAA RISAs CORE Non-profit RCC Academia SCs Extension Private Sector County Offices *Non-NOAA

19. Pacific NWWater Resources Planning Workshops • Annually since 1998 • At start of water year • East & west of Cascades • Climate recap and outlook • Water resources outlook • Prospective for improved predictability of climate • variability and water resources • Climate change: latest science, PNW impacts • Water resource managers’ use of climate • information WORKSHOP PROGRAM

20. Moving Toward an Integrated Federal Role in Adaptive Management Research What are the implications of severe, sustained drought over the next decade (+), and how can we build those information needs into the crafting of today’s research agendas? Successful partnerships between NOAA and decision and policy-makers may mitigate current and forthcoming drought issues.

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