DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? Djuro KUTLAČA, PhD Science and Technology Policy Research Centre of the “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute 11000 Belgrade, Volgina 15, Serbia Tel/Fax:+381(0)11 2774-452 E-mail: dkutlaca@labtel.imp.bg.ac.yu , and University of Belgrade – Faculty of Security Studies 11000 Belgrade, Gospodara Vučića 50, Serbia VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? • Issues: • Basic rationale • Statistical data from SEE countries; • (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes; • Difficulties of participation of researchers from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU and other national and international funding agencies; • Actions needed. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? • 1. Basic rationale: • Main changes in R&D systems in South East European (SEE) countries during transition period is evaluated in literature as: • “… the Western Balkans, Romania and Bulgaria are characterized by national innovation systems: • that are undergoing radical institutional and structural changes, • a research and technology infrastructure that is largely obsolete, • a disproportionately large amount of basic research combined with poor financial remuneration, • a large deficit of industrial demand for applied research combined with very low business expenditure on R&D, • an often relatively aged human potential in R&D that is confronted with the negative effects of the internal and external brain drain, • and suboptimal integration into European research and technology projects" • [GFF, 2006, “Research and Development in South East Europe”, Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Forschung (ed), Neuer Wissenschaftlicher Verlag GmbH, ISBN 3-7083-0377-6, Wien – Graz 2006]. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? • 2. Statistical data from SEE countries: • Main S&T indicators; • Patent activity, • National Innovation Capacity . VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

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Resident Patent Applications VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

Absorptive Capacity VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

R&D Capacities VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? 3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Lack of time: Transition period, although lasts number of years, even decades, is characterized by the rush, impatience, need that number of development plans and projects must be done in very short time frame. • Lack of customers: Weak linkages and non existing infrastructure and mechanisms for transfer and diffusion of technologies from R&D to business sector, make task “find a customer” almost impossible to achieve. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Lack of demand-pull: Most of the central planned economies are characterized with strong science-push system, where industry just has to “come and take new technology from the shelf”. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Lack of communication: Business and academia are two separate worlds, and R&D results hardly could find users. • Lack of marketing knowledge: R&D system has inherent lack of marketing capabilities. Scientists are, usually, oriented to the world of science, not to economy. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Lack of management knowledge: Like previous remark, management skills are another big puzzle for scientists. • Lack of entrepreneurs: People with clear idea how to develop one idea from research to market are very rear, especially in R&D sector. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3. (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Lack of networks and clusters: Post-socialist economies suffer of lack of linkages between different actors, and even more, suffer of lack of information “who knows what”, what is precondition for such integration. • Lack of originality: Rush for adoption rather than adaptation of “best practice from developed market economies” during transition period usually ends with non-efficient and non-workable solutions. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? 3a. Other factors specific to WBC’s regarding the difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3a. Other factors specific to WBC’s regarding the difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Knowledge: Theoretical knowledge about foresight is very rear, marginalized and non-systematic. • Experience: Without knowledge about foresight there is no sense to speak about experience. Unfortunately, number of foreign experts, agencies and representatives, present in WBC’s, never advice, suggest or introduce foresight practice in WBC’s. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3a. Other factors specific to WBC’s regarding the difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Capacity: Foresight is neglected from educational and practical aspects. • Political instability: Most of the WBC’s must be, as a difference from number of CEE countries, treated as countries with strong political instability, which shortened aspirations and efforts invested by elected political parties. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

3a. Other factors specific to WBC’s regarding the difficulties to bring foresight aspects into policy making processes • Weak economies: Although the transition period lasts more than 15 years in CEE countries, WBC’s suffered from wars and conflicts, causing rather bad situation in economies and infrastructure. • Inappropriate infrastructure: This factor includes not only lack of infrastructure and mechanisms for transfer and diffusion of technologies from R&D to business sector, but non-functional, economically ineffective R&D organizations and business enterprises also. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? 4. Difficulties for participation of researchers from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU and other national and international funding agencies VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

4. Difficulties for participation of researchers from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU and other national and international funding agencies • Participation of researchers from WBC’s in EU FP6 – “cheap R&D outsourcing”; • Participation of researchers from WBC’s in EU FP7 ? • FP7 makes foresight again eligible issue ! VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

4. Difficulties for participation of researchers from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU and other national and international funding agencies • National and international funding agencies, present in WBC’s, are gradually moving from issues such as democratization, human rights, political and legal aspects,toward economic and other development issues. This could make room for foresight activities, if and only if experts and consultants employed by these agencies and present in WBC’s will stand on long-term rather than short-term priorities and activities. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

4. Difficulties for participation of researchers from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU and other national and international funding agencies • Present practice of creation of policy documents in different fields, prepared only by foreign experts, as request from donating foreign agencies, usually ends with documents based on wrong facts, missing actors, missvalued potentials and resources, i.e. ends as waste of time and valuable resources, and without desirable side-effects such as education and training of researchers and other domestic professionals who could become knowledgeable support for policy makers in WBC’s! VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE? 5. Actions needed VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

5. Actions needed • Clearly defined foresight-related activities as priorities under FP7 related to WBC’s; • Launching of series of educational and training courses for transfer of foresight knowledge and experience to human resources in WBC’s.; VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

5. Actions needed • Integration of researchers and other professionals from WBC’s into existing foresight programs and projects in EU member countries; • Integration of researchers and other professionals from WBC’s into development programs and projects, and other activities launched by foreign agencies and institutions in WBC’s. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?