Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the Responsibilities of the Faith Community

1. Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the Responsibilities of the Faith Community Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006

2. Outline • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide • Radiative forcing • Simulations of global climate and future climate change • “Dangerous anthropogenic inter- ference with the climate system”? • “Climate surprises” • Implications for the Faith Community

3. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles

5. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2006

8. 2040 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2006

9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 ?

13. Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.

16. Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for “efficacy” of the forcing mechanism Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.

17. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

18. Global mean surface temperature change based on surface air measurements over land and SSTs over ocean Source: Update of Hansen et al., JGR, 106, 23947, 2001; Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994; Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003.

19. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

20. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

21. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

22. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

23. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

24. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

25. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

27. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

28. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

29. Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

30. (A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate simulations. (B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world ocean. Source: Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005.

32. Tropical Weather Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

33. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPGhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

34. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

35. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

36. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) • 140-page synthesis report released in November 2004. • Main science report imminent (chapters available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu). • Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the Arctic. • Rising temperatures • Rising river flows • Declining snow cover • Increasing precipitation • Thawing permafrost • Diminishing late and river ice • Melting glaciers • Melting Greenland Ice Sheet • Retreating summer sea ice • Rising sea level • Ocean salinity changes • Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses, Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of mosses and lichens Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor

37. NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

38. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

39. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

40. Associated Climate Changes • Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr • Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere • Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% • Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions • Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere • Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents • Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges • Snow cover decreased by 10% • Earlier flowering dates • Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

41. For the Midwest • Warming will be greater for winter than summer • Warming will be greater at night than during the day • A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave • Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950) • More precipitation • Likely more soil moisture in summer • More rain will come in intense rainfall events • Higher stream flow, more flooding

42. Climate Surprises • Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water) • Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

45. Kennedy Space Center Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Miami

46. What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”? James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: * Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2 * 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature

47. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

48. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

49. 2002 all-time record melt area • Melting up to elevation of 2000 m • 16% increase from 1979 to 2002 70 meters thinning in 5 years Increasing Melt Area on Greenland Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005. Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center

50. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004