PIONEER: Preparation and Integration of Analysis Tools for Estuarine Nutrient Forecast

1. Preparation and integration of analysis tools towards operational forecast of nutrients in estuaries of European rivers (PIONEER). PIONEER 1998-2001

2. Preparation and integration of analysis tools towards operational forecast of nutrients in estuaries of European rivers (PIONEER). Contract No MAS3-CT98-0170 1 September 1998 – August 2001 Coordinator Hans von Storch, GKSS Scientific Manager Konstanze Reichert, OceanWaveS GmbH Participants Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS - Geesthacht, Germany Maritime Research Institute – Szczecin, Poland Technical University Szczecin, Water Environment Engineering Department – Szczecin, Poland Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Laboratorio d'Ingenieria Maritima – Barcelona, Spain Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Departamento de Ingenieria Hidraulica y Medio Ambiente – Valencia, Spain Københavns Universitet, Institute of Geography - København, Denmark Danish Hydraulic Institute, Water and Environment - Hørsholm, Denmark Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Biological Oceanography - Texel, Den Burg, The Netherlands Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center – Bergen, Norway Association pour la Recherche et le Développement desMéthodes et Processus Industriels – ARMINES, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Centre de Géostatistique – Fontainebleau, France PIONEER 1998-2001

3. Objectives: The main objective of PIONEER is the development of techniques for the day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient and related suspended matter distributions in estuaries. Such systems are expected to be routinely operated by management authorities as well as commercial companies in the future. PIONEER 1998-2001

4. Brief description The sustainable management of the coastal zone requires routine monitoring and assessment of the status of the ecosystem "coastal zone". To obtain an efficient and cost-effective system, „intelligent“ observational strategies combined with an analysis software encoding our present knowledge about the dynamics of the considered system are needed. This software determines the informational value of actual observations, combines all observations with previous forecasts and returns a best guess of the detailed present space-time state. PIONEER 1998-2001

5. PIONEER sets up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries. PIONEER 1998-2001

6. The project integrates presently available technology and methodology in data management, geostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in co-operation between scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies. The overall approach of PIONEER parallels the analysis in weather forecasting. Point observations together with a „best guess“ are processed in a data assimilation scheme. Since data assimilation with respect to nutrients is a new application three schemes of increasing complexity are explored: simple spatial interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. PIONEER 1998-2001

7. The systems developed by PIONEER include: • State-of-the-art data assimilation schemes to determine the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and water quality parameters. • Dynamical models to forecast temporal and spatial evolution of water quality parameters for several days and weeks. • Data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange. PIONEER 1998-2001

8. Plan of presentation • Data and models for the Ebro estuaryby Joan Pau Sierra • Data and models for the Odra estuary by Dorota Dybkowska-Stefek • Combining data and models for analysis and prediction purposes by Hans Wackernagel • Conclusions and Outlook by Hans von Storch PIONEER 1998-2001

10. Data and models for the Ebro estuary by Joan Pau Sierra Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Laboratorio d'Ingenieria Maritima – Barcelona, Spain PIONEER 1998-2001

11. Introduction • Field campaigns • Estuary modelling • Plume modelling • Conclusions PIONEER 1998-2001

12. Introduction PIONEER 1998-2001

13. Field campaigns (I) • Available data: • Meteorology (different stations - every 10’) • Tide level (2 gauges – every 30’) • Waves (Cap Tortosa – every 3 h) • River discharge (Tortosa – every 1 h) • Salinity, SS, nutrients (Tortosa – every month) PIONEER 1998-2001

14. Field campaigns (II) • Field campaigns • (1 per season – estuary & plume): • Salinity • Temperature • Current profiles (ADP) • Nutrients (nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, silicates, SRP) • Chlorophyll a PIONEER 1998-2001

15. Field campaigns (III) PIONEER 1998-2001

16. Measurements. Salt wedge (summer) PIONEER 1998-2001

17. Measurements. Nitrate (spring) PIONEER 1998-2001

18. Ebro Estuary Model Objective: To set up a model system able to model nutrient concentrations and transport from a monitoring station in the riverto the Sea. PIONEER 1998-2001

19. Nutrient transport calculated by MIKE 12 river model system • MIKE 12 is a 2 layer one dimensional river model system from DHI water & environment consisting of: • Hydrodynamic module (water level, discharge & velocity) • Advection dispersion module (transport of substances) • Nutrient module with 20 state variables, (Chl-a, plankton C-N-P, detritus C-N-P, NH4, NO3, PO4, O2, sediment: organic C-N-P,NH4, NO3 & PO4 in pore water) PIONEER 1998-2001

20. W Tw Q1 e0 Ti e1 Ti Q0 Tb z x MIKE 12 Hydrodynamic Model PIONEER 1998-2001

21. DHI water & environment Date 07-07-1999, Discharge=119.80 m3·s-1 PIONEER 1998-2001

22. Simulation of salinity time series at 11.6 km from the river mouth upper layer PIONEER 1998-2001 lower layer

23. PIONEER 1998-2001

24. Findings: Hydrodynamic model • Salt wedge position depending on discharge. • Simulated salt wedge position agree with observed discharge and positions. • Salt wedge position sensitive to sea level PIONEER 1998-2001

25. PIONEER 1998-2001 DHI water & environment

26. Simulated & measured nutrients in salt wedge 6 km from mouthMarch 1999- March 2000 DHI water & environment PIONEER 1998-2001

27. PIONEER 1998-2001

28. Findings Nutrient transport simulation • The N and P load to the sea was 17.900 tonnes N & 950 tonnes P from 1.03.99 to 15.02.00. • The salt wedge acts like a sink for particulate matter including particulate bound N (PON) and P (POP) due to: • Increased sedimentation from surface layer after flocculation at PSU > 1. • Input of suspended matter from area covered by salt wedge to surface layer lower than resuspension from same area covered by river bead. • Sedimentation of POP and PON from upper to salt wedge was equal to about 30 % of the POP and PON load at Tortosa in 1999. PIONEER 1998-2001

29. Plume modelling Objective: To set up a model system able tomodel nutrientconcentrations and spreading in the river plume PIONEER 1998-2001

30. Ebro plume models • Hydrodynamic model: TRIM3D (water level and currents) – Reynolds equations • Dispersion model: LAD3D (plume spreading – salinity) – Advection-diffusion equation PIONEER 1998-2001

31. Hydrodynamic simulation of river plumeu=2.2 m/s; =190º; Q=166.6 m3/s

32. Calibration PIONEER 1998-2001

33. nitrates Link between concentration of nutrients and salinity in the Ebro plume(in summer) PIONEER 1998-2001 silicate SRP

34. Findings of plume modelling • Plume hydrodynamics depending on wind direction and velocity and bathymetry • Simulated plume spreading and salinity values agree with observed ones. • Almost all the nutrients follow a conservative behaviour with salinity (except SRP and silicates in spring) PIONEER 1998-2001

35. Conclusions • Salinity and nutrient concentrations can be suitably predicted in the estuary • Salinity and plume spreading can also be well simulated • Nutrients in the plume can be indirectly predicted due to their conservative behaviour with salinity (with some exceptions in spring) • Continuous nutrient monitoring in the head of the estuary needed in order to get an operational forecast system PIONEER 1998-2001

37. Data and models for the Odra estuary by Dorota Dybkowska-Stefek Maritime Research Institute – Szczecin, Poland PIONEER 1998-2001

38. PIONEER Peene Dziwna Świna The Odra Lagoon Kleines Haff Wielki Zalew The Lower Odra The Odra Estuary

39. PIONEER The concept of the system for forecasting nutrients in the Odra Estuary The main objective of the system is to predictchanges in nutrients distribution in the Odra Lagoon on a basis of nutrient load discharged by the Lower Odra, being estimated from the numerical simulation of flows and transport processes in the river network. The simulation is performed for forecasted hydro-meteorological conditions and forecasted nutrient loads coming from the river upstream. In this simulation inflows of nutrients from the sources located along the Lower Odra and around the Odra Lagoon are taken into account.

40. Model system for the Odra estuary

41. PIONEER Model system for the lower Odra river MODRIM

42. PIONEER Simulation and forecast with the modelling systemMODRIMof the Lower Odra river • The system needs: • time series ofwater level downstreamand flow upstream • time series of nutrients at the upstream cross-section, • averaged load of nutrients from sources located along the Lower Odrariver. • The system produces as results time series of: • water levels, • flows, • velocities, • concentration and transport of nutrients, • concentration of SPMat every cross-section of the Lower Odra River network.

43. PIONEER Computational network of the Lower Odra river for nutrients simulation and forecast

44. PIONEER Development in time of nitrogen concentration along the eastern path of the Odra river network

45. PIONEER Time series of nitrogen concentration in several cross-sections of the Odra river network

46. PIONEER Simulation and forecast withcoupled modelsTRIM3D/ERSEM • The coupled models need: • time series ofwater level at three outlets of the Odra Lagoon to the Baltic Sea, • time series of nutrients concentrationand flowatTRZEBIEŻcross-section, • averaged load of nutrientsfrom sources located around the Odra Lagoon. • TRIM3Dproduces as results time series of: • water levels, • velocities, • concentration of SPMin the points of computational grid of the Odra Lagoon. • ERSEM- based on input data fromTRIM3Dandsedimentation–resuspension module- produces as results time series of : • averaged nutrients concentrationfor each boxof the Odra Lagoon.

47. PIONEER

48. PIONEER Total number of sea-points: 13840(92.97%) • Mean/min/max/ box depth: 3.1m/0.1m/12.2m • Size of single grid cell: 0.0625 km2 • Total area of boxes: 8,650 km2 (92.97%) • Total volume of boxes: 28,262 km3 (95.74%) Division of the Odra Lagoon intothreeboxes for ERSEM model

49. PIONEER Time series of simulated phosphates in Kleines Haff compared with measurements

50. PIONEER Time series of simulated phosphatesin three boxes of the Odra Lagoon