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Net Assessment: The Chinese Financial System. He who is contented is rich. - Lao-Tzu. To begin: land and labor. 10 million sq kilometers. Rugged disconnected vast geography 15 percent arable land. 1.3 billion people. 142 people per sq km
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Net Assessment: The Chinese Financial System He who is contented is rich. - Lao-Tzu
To begin: land and labor • 10 million sq kilometers. Rugged disconnected vast geography • 15 percent arable land. 1.3 billion people. 142 people per sq km • 790m workforce. 300m farm workers. Labor intensive economy • Urban / rural gap. 740 million rural folk; per capita net income is $2 per day. Urban per capita disposable income $2300.
High levels of deposits ($9 trillion). Total banking assets are $11 trillion. Enterprise deposits slightly surpassed household savings (about $3.5 trillion each). Central government holds $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.
Bank loans are the dominant means of obtaining finance. The banking system is mostly state-run and includes policy banks, four state-owned commercial banks, over a dozen joint-stock commercial banks, numerous urban and rural commercial banks and credit cooperatives, and foreign banks. SOEs and part-state companies are dominant in small stocks and corporate bond markets.
Outstanding loans of $6.1 trillion. Most loans (68%) go to capital intensive sectors, mostly managed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). SOEs receive three-fourths short-term loans and half to two-thirds of medium-long term, often with preferential terms. Private companies self-finance, rely on close networks, access informal finance sector, or seek FDI.
State banks lend to state companies that work with politicians and deposit their earnings back in the banks. Inefficient uses of capital develop. NPL near catastrophe in late 1990s. NPL ratios in top two bank categories hit 26% and 12%. Loan growth, GDP growth and fudging stats make NPLs look smaller now. But they are created by nature of the financial system.
