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Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results

Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results. Lee Alter Western Governors’ Association January 10, 2005 Tucson, AZ. Caveats. Results are preliminary Became available last week Minor emission errors identified Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions Further QA planned

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Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results

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  1. Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results Lee Alter Western Governors’ Association January 10, 2005 Tucson, AZ

  2. Caveats • Results are preliminary • Became available last week • Minor emission errors identified • Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions • Further QA planned • The following emissions are held constant • Sources outside the U.S. • CA nonroad sources and ocean-going vessels • Biogenics, wb dust, and smoke (Wx, Rx, ag)

  3. Caveats • Emission changes limitted to known / certain controls on stationary, area, and land-based mobile sources. In WRAP region, this equates to annual change of: - 51,000 tons of SO2 (-5%) - 1,040,000 tons of NOx (-28%) 635,000 tons of PM10 (31%) 424,000 tons of VOC (14%) [Results include AK, but do not include expected increases in OGVs and expected decreases in CA nonroad.]

  4. Caveats • Each Class I area projection based on modeled differences during ~22 days in 2002

  5. See Spreadsheet Handout for Class I Area Resultsfor 20% Worst Days

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