Presentation title

1. Gary M. Carter Director, Office of Hydrologic Development National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2010 MIC-HIC Conference Presentation title

2. Outline The Water Imperative – NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans Challenges/Strategy/Plans/Actions NWS – Community Hydrologic Prediction System; Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service NOAA – Integrated Water Forecasting Program; Coast, Estuary, River Information Services Federal Consortium – Integrated Water Resource Science and Services Water Resource Services Vision 2020 Implementation Challenges Building Blocks for Vision 2020 Water Resource Services

3. The Global Water Imperative “Nearly half of the streams and lakes in the U.S. are not clean enough to sustain swimming and fishing and our infrastructure has been given a D grade”

4. Water Issues:Too Much, Too Little, Poor Quality New strategic plans for NOAA and NWS recognize decision-makers in all water management sectors need: Higher resolution information in space and time Quantification of uncertainty to manage risk Water resource challenges are significant and getting bigger: Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating Growing needs for water resource forecasts: Soil moisture for agriculture and forest management Low flow for maintaining water supply Water temperature and salinity forecasts for fisheries management and healthy ecosystems

5. Recent High-ImpactWater Events • During 2007, Georgia experienced the worst drought in over 100 years • In September 2009, Atlanta experienced one of the worst floods in the United States during the past 100 years 2009: Atlanta, GA 2007: Lake Lanier, GA Through 2050, ~ $100B to address adaptation needs for drinking water systems across the Southeast

6. Adaptive Water Management Moving from Allocation and Reserves to Sustaining Environmental Flows “Focus on improving the operational effectiveness and efficiency of existing reservoir systems for maximizing the beneficial uses”

7. Adaptive Water Management: Major Economic Impacts Minimum Additional Benefits/Year Examples Hydropower comprises 75% of Nation’s renewable energy Energy $100M • CA study indicates increase of 15% with full use of improved probabilistic forecasts River commerce transports 90% of Nation’s grain $200M Transportation • Generates $13.4B in annual spending U.S. Agriculture: 80% of fresh water consumption $300M Agriculture • Balance selective withdrawals for irrigation, regional water supply and fisheries Annual Flood Losses Flooding $400M • Temporary levees cost $1M per mile $1,000M Minimum Recurring Annual Benefit

8. Years Seasons Months Weeks Days Hours Minutes Water Forecasting Challenges Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Lead Time Benefits Protection of Life & Property Recreation State/Local Planning Hydropower Environment Ecosystem Flood Mitigation & Navigation Reservoir Control Agriculture Health Commerce

9. Integrated Water Forecasting Program NOAA’s Role: Provide accurate and reliable water forecasts (where, when, and how much) Rivers and Floods Coasts, Lakes and Estuaries Water Resources Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Coast, Estuary, River Information Services Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Objective 1 Objective 3 Objective 4 Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors and quantify uncertainty Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes and estuaries Deliver seamless, high resolution water quantity and quality forecasts Objective 2 Objective 5 Provide flood inundation forecast maps for high-impact communities Advance and integrate observing systems to improve QPE and QPF

10. Community Hydrologic Prediction System Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia Flexible, open modeling architecture linking program elements Community Hydrologic Prediction System Implementation Status: • AWIPS-II compatible prototype hardware and software for all RFCs • Conducting parallel operations at 4 RFCs, remaining by early 2011 • Retire legacy system in early 2012 NWS Models FEWS ACE Models FEWS Models Other Models

11. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions • Seamless short- to long-term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) within CHPS • Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties Implementation Status • Demonstrating components of short-term capability at 6 RFCs • Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years • Initial version of full capability in 2013

12. Coast, Estuary, River Information Services Couple coastal, estuary and river modeling systems to deliver an integrated suite of water forecasts In 2007, shore-adjacent counties accounted for: • Coastal communities are facing unprecedented challenges to manage threatened water resources and fragile ecosystems • NOAA must deliver an integrated suite of water information via: • Coupled river/estuary impact-based water forecasts to quantify uncertainty and communicate risk: • Including water level, temperature, salinity, and storm surge Nation’s Land Area: 18% U.S. Population: 36% U.S. Economic Output: 42%

13. Primary Roles: Prediction Monitoring Science Management Conservation Regulation Protection Mitigation Restoration Response Recovery 12 Assessment Agencies: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Forest Service Natural Resources Conservation Service Army Corps of Engineers Environmental Protection Agency Federal Emergency Management Agency Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Reclamation Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service U.S. Geological Survey Tennessee Valley Authority Collaborating for a Sustainable Water Future • Comprehensive national stakeholder needs assessment included 50 states and 12 Federal agencies (2009) • Revealed broad need for a Federal Tool Box for water resources

14. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services USACE NOAA USGS • NOAA is leading the multi-agency IWRSS consortium to: • Prototype the Federal Tool Box for water resources • Streamline access to Federal water resource capabilities • Share technology, information, models, best practices • Develop interoperable tools • Create a Common Operating Picture Benefits

15. Water Resources Vision 2020 Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of the Nation’s Water Supply Provide resources and training to: • Enable RFCs to run high-resolution models and produce gridded forecasts of streamflow, salinity, and soil moisture for the 4-D cube • Expand role of the WFOs to help local decision makers to use enhanced water forecasts, and function as decision-support experts for high-impact flood, drought, and water quality events

16. Benefits of Improving Forecast Skill • 50% reduction in forecast error corresponds to $90M less in potential damages in one event Implementation Challenges We must: • Embrace water forecasting as a key growth area to increase the value we deliver to America • Re-evaluate and augment RFC and WFO staffing to meet water resource challenges • Expand expertise in hydrology and water resources • Leverage NOAA’s science and technology assets more effectively • Support and expand the IWRSS partnership to demonstrate its critical importance and value

17. Building Blocks for Vision 2020 • Water Forecasting is our Core Mission • America needs improved and expanded water resource services • Critical Inputs to Water Forecasting System • NWS weather and climate models • Foundation for Services Transformation • Infrastructure enhancements: AWIPS–II, CHPS, and HEFS • Intra-agency Planning, Coordination, Staffing and Resourcing • NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program (IWF) • Inter-agency Collaboration, S&T Sharing, Common Operating Picture • Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) • Enhanced Support for RFC and WFO • National Water Center Vision and Requirements Team

18. Water Resource Services Evolving Operations to Implement Impact-based Decision Support Services 4D Cube Impact-based Forecasts IDSS New Water Resource Services

19. Water Resource Services Evolving Operations to Implement Impact-based Decision Support Services IDSS Critical Information to support: • Emergency, Health, and Safety Officials • Community Planners, Agricultural Interests, Businesses • Public Utilities, Federal, State and Local Water Agencies • Fishery, Coastal and Ecosystem Managers 4D Cube Impact-based Forecasts New Water Resource Services