NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: Activity Report – Directions for the Future

1. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:Activity Report – Directions for the Future Ron ZwicklNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center European Space Weather Week Royal Library of Belgium 5 – 9 November, 2007

2. Organizational Name Change NOAA’s Space Environment Center (SEC) is now Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Beginning October 1, 2007 • The move of SEC into the National Weather • Service in January 2005 signaled a new era in • space weather, the need for timely, accurate • information and forecasts • Aligns SEC with other centers in the National • Centers for Environment Prediction: • Tropical Prediction Center • Climate Prediction Center • Storm Prediction Center • Space Weather Prediction Center

3. Recent Trends • Steady overall growth of users during Solar Minimum • Fastest growing user areas: Polar Aviation & GPS • Monthly web statistics • 50 million file transfers • 400,000 unique customers • Customers from 120 countries GOES: 10 million file transfers • 140,000 unique users • POES: 7 million file transfers 225,000 unique users • ACE: 4 million file transfers 20,000 unique users

4. Recent Trends • Drivers for Polar Aviation • Flight time reductions of 1 to 3 hours • Absence of turbulence and convection • Aircraft with 6k to 9k mile range • Economic growth of China and India • Drivers for GPS market • Deep-sea drilling • Surveying • FAA navigation systems • Defense operations • Mining & Farming operations

5. International Space Environment Service (ISES) • ISES members collaborating to support Polar route use • Spaceweather.org will provide one-stop shopping for space weather • products in support of Polar operations • - Ensures consistency of forecast products • - Leverages resources of multiple agencies International Space Environment Service (ISES)

6. An Updated Service • Secure Data Access Agreement • SWPC will provide high availability, secure data access to SWPC primary/secondary event and time series data for our partners • Leverage existing SWPC expertise with commercial and open source technology (specifically MS SQL Server, Spread Messaging Service) to provide access • New service to be implemented in 2008

7. Partnering with Commercial Service Providers Satellite Status / Space Weather Updates”(FugroChance product) • Provides time sensitive information on satellite status and space weather forecasts that may cause operational disruptions. Over 400 subscribers. • Subscribed Client Organizations include (partial listing): • Allseas PGS • British Petroleum (BP) Spectra Precision • CGG (Compagnie Générale de Géophysique) Seadrill • Case New Holland Stenna • Diamond Offshore Shell • Exxon/Mobile Transocean • Fairfield Trimble Navigation • Global USACE • Oceaneering USDA

8. Solar Cycle 24 Prediction PanelInternational Effort • Start of Cycle 24: March, 2008 (±6 months) • Making Cycle 23 11.75 years long • Peak of Cycle: The panel is split! • Sunspot number of 140 (±20) in October, 2011 (F10.7 = 187 sfu) • Sunspot number of 90 (±10) in August, 2012 (F10.7 = 141 sfu) • Cycle 24 will be neither extreme, nor average

9. GOES 8-12 NOAA GOES Space Environment Data NOAA’s Commitment to Space Weather Monitoring and Open Data Policy – Past, Present, and Future • GOES SEM (Space Environment Monitor) • Continuous observations for over 30 years • -- SMS 1&2, GOES 1-12 • (energetic particles, magnetic field, x-ray sensor) • -- GOES-12 has first Solar X-ray imager (SXI) • GOES-13 (and future GOES-O, and P) • -- Adds medium energy electrons and protons • -- Adds Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) instrument • -- Improved SXI • GOES-R series (2012+) • -- Adds additional electron and proton measurements • -- Adds heavy ion measurements GOES 13 and O, P

10. Integrated Service Change Plan Evaluation of Public Response to the Termination of Solar Wind Data U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland NOAA Real Time Solar Wind Data NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) • RTSW ground system partnership: • National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo • Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, United Kingdom; • NASA's Deep Space Network • NOAA's Wallop Command and Data Acquisition station, Virginia • NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Colorado • USAF stations within the Air Force Space Command Network. • NOAA efforts to sustain real time solar wind data • Response to Integrated Service Change Plan: • 1,082 comments received and all were extremely positive • The suspension of those data would cause impacts ranging from significant economic loss to numerous industries, to the suspension of scientific research campaigns and investigations • Real Time Solar Wind data will continue

11. NASA and NOAA Bringing You STEREO • NOAA: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/stereo • Page layout is identical to ACE RTSW • Source for solar wind plasma and • energetic particle plots—Beacon Data • Ascii files of recent data to be accessible • NASA: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov • Source for images, solar wind plasma, • and energetic particles. STEREO / WAVES Daily Summary Plots available at http://swaves.gsfc.nasa.gov/data_access.html

12. Service Gaps – SWPC priorities • Radiation safety • NASA/SRAG, space tourism, high fliers: all clear forecasts, longer lead times • Airlines: working on standards, operating procedures, regional information • SEP spectra, duration, fluence predictions • GIC – regional maps with nowcast & forecast • Polar Route Airline Comm – regional maps with nowcast • GPS • Regional products with more direct application • Forecasting the ionosphere and its impact on GPS • Possible data gaps in the future: • Solar wind data (ACE lifetime) • Coronagraph data (SOHO/LASCO lifetime, plus STEREO)

13. Challenges, Needs, Tools, Plans Challenges • Integrating large volume of data into a consistent physical picture • Visualization of Active Region Magnetic fields – consistent with the data • Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space • View from above the ecliptic tracking one or more ICMEs • View of High Speed Streams and the Sector Structure • Visualization of the state of the magnetosphere Plans • Focus: model transition • Prioritization: based on user requirements • Coordination: Must leverage directed research funded through NASA/NSF/DOD • Validation: ‘How good is it ?’ – a must do

14. Summary • Growing national need for Space Wx Services • Way forward for NOAA/SWPC: • We want to focus our efforts on model transition • Requires leveraging work of external partners • Requires communicating problems that need to be solved • Specific Areas: • Improving current forecasts: flares, proton events, geomagnetic storms, ionosphere • Service Gaps: Radiation, Airline communications, GIC, GPS users • Handling the data: visualizations, assimilation • Need to measure improvements objectively • Look forward to working together with partners to meet the space weather needs of the global economy