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Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory

Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory. Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2010. Thinking About Winston. Supervening Social Necessity. What does that mean, in your own words? (pair/share) WWII as driver for computer development Firing Table

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Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory

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  1. Evolution of Digital Media Technologies:Diffusion Theory Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2010

  2. Thinking About Winston

  3. Supervening Social Necessity • What does that mean, in your own words? (pair/share) • WWII as driver for computer development • Firing Table • Cryptography (see Cryptonomicon by Stephenson) • What was important (Christensen) about transition from vacuum tubes to transistors? What’s next?

  4. Winston Chart

  5. Suppression • MS-DOS versus IBM-DOS versus … • VaporWare • Customers as testers (permanently beta) • Examples of suppression today?

  6. Computers and Networks(1/2) • Facilitate • Concentration of knowledge and control (think Google) • Distribution of knowledge and control (think Twitter) • A “two-edged” sword • Have the power to • Amass and interrogate enormous volumes of data • Process data at enormous rates for real systems and simulations

  7. Computers and Networks(2/2) • Combined, they challenge • Constitutional definitions • Social structures • Lifestyle options • No network is more disruptive than “the Net” • Reminder: funded and developed by the DoD

  8. Computers and Networks(2/2) • 1962 - The first recorded description of the social interactions that could be enabled through networking • J.C.R. Licklider of MIT envisioned a globally interconnected set of computers through which everyone could quickly access data and programs from any site. In spirit, the concept was very much like the Internet of today. Internet Society: History of the Internet

  9. ARPANET (Rand, MIT, UCLA) • 1969: first node • 1971: 15 nodes • 1982: TCP/IPTransmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol

  10. Picking Up Speed • 1987: Apple Hypertext • 1991: (Sir) Tim Berners-Lee at European Particle Physics Laboratory in Geneva conceived/birthed the World Wide Web • 1993: National Center for Supercomputing Applications [NCSA] - University of Illinois creates Mosaic a WWW browser • April 1994 : Mosaic Communications • August 9, 1995 : Netscape IPO

  11. Internet Hosts – 1971-2010 • 1971 : 15 • 1981 : 213 • 1985 : 1,961 • 1990 : 313,000 • 1994 : 3,864,000 • 1998 : 29,670,000 • 2000 : 72,398,092 • 2003 : 171,638,297 • 2006 : 394,991,609 • 2009 : 625,226,456 • 2010 : 732,740,444 http://www.isc.org/

  12. Faster... faster... faster • Blackberry (2001, Hottest Product by Forbes) • Palm Tungsten C handheld (2003) • Facebook (2004) • YouTube, Slingbox (2005) • iPhone, Justin.tv, Kindle, Twitter, uStream.tv (2007) • iPhone3G, Netflix Streaming, Wii (2008) • Android, GoogleWave, iPhone3Gs, Logitech Harmony Universal Remote (2009) • NexusOne, iPad (2010)

  13. Thinking About Rogers

  14. Linear innovation-diffusion theory • The process by which aninnovationiscommunicatedthrough certainchannelsover time among the members of asocial system. Rogers, 1995, page 5

  15. Rogers: Five steps of adoption • Knowledge • Persuasion • Decision (adopt or reject) • Implementation • Confirmation

  16. Barriers to Adoption • Habit, social groups • Home row: 32% keys v 70% keys • Left hand: 57% v 44%

  17. Barriers To Innovation • Narrow World View • VCR, developed by Ampex Corp, 1950s • TV stations • $50K, size of refrigerator • R&D employees said “miniaturize” • Licensed to Sony • By 1995,no US company made VCRs • Rogers would also say poor “technology transfer” from R&D

  18. Barriers to Innovation • Profit motive • 1930, prototypes for two refrigerators: gas and electric • Gas had no moving parts • GE, GM, Westinghouse and Kelvinator invested heavily in R&D and promotion for electric because “larger profit” potential (Rogers) • This is why your refrigerator “hums”

  19. Major technologies on technology adoption curve • Source

  20. Infographic credited to NYT

  21. Discussion Leaders • Now we’ll move to more intimate discussion groups!

  22. Credits • Kathy E. Gill, @kegill – http://wiredpen.com

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