National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview

1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Visit of Southeastern University Research Association March 2, 2011

2. NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

3. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 5

6. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

7. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days GLOFS Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware North American Forecast Hours Hurricane – GFDL, WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

8. Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WAVEWATCH III Climate CFSv2 NOS PORTS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC MOM4 3.5B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Regional DA Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 8 NOAH Land Surface Model

9. Transition to IBM Power 6 complete Declared operational August 12, 2009 73.1 trillion calculations/sec Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 156 POWER6 32-way nodes 4,992 processors 20 terabytes of memory 330 terabytes of disk space 3.5 billion observations/day 27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Web access to models as they run on the CCS Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2010 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10. Examples of Forecast Metrics 10

14. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (CSDL and CO-OPS) Test BedsService – Science Linkage between the Operational and Research Communities 14

15. Joint Hurricane Testbed Process • Managed through the NOAA USWRP • Designed to accelerate R2O at the USWRP • Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA • A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals • Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/EMC points of contact • At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff • Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs • 1) Number of projects supported: 62 • 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation, 5 rejected • 9.5 completed but pending further investigation • 12 projects in process: 12 • 2) Number of projects implemented: 31.5 • 10 numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO • 21.5 projects implemented by NHC • 4 projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4 2001 – 2010 Summary

17. Hazardous Weather Testbed • Jointly managed by NSSL, SPC and WFO Norman • Designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States • Composed of two program areas • Experimental Forecast Program focuses on application of cutting edge numerical weather prediction models to improve severe weather forecasts • Accelerated Multi-Model Ensemble mesoscale application • Introduced probabilistic severe wx outlooks based on ensembles • Experimental Warning Program tests research concepts and technology specifically aimed at short-fused warnings of severe convective weather • Annual NOAA HWT Spring Experiment attracts about 100 researchers and forecasters to Norman each year.

18. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Partners: NASA, NOAA, and DoD (USAF &USN) • Mission: To accelerate use of satellite observations in partners’ operational environmental modeling systems • Keys to Success • Common science priorities, coordinated efforts, shared results • Research based on operational needs – transitionable results • Balance Research Program • ~ 40 External Projects 2000-2010 • ~ 100 Internal Projects 2000-2010 • Notable Achievements • Community Radiative Transfer Model • Assimilation of Advanced Sensor Data • AIRS, IASI, SSMIS, Winds, COSMIC • Joint OSSE System Development • Strong Outreach Program • Annual Science Workshop • Joint Workshops – ECMWF, HFIP • Biennial Colloquium for Students

19. Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed • Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office • Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities • Mission • To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services • Research to Operations (R2O) • Operations to Research (O2R) • Focus Areas • CFS Improvements • Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems • Climate Forecast Products • Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series • CPC/CTB - RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program • Delivered unified statistical post-processing after CFS version 1

20. HydroMeteorologicalTestbed Description Jointly managed by OAR/ESRL and HPC Goal: To accelerate the transfer of scientific and technological innovations into operations to enhance HPC products and services Roles: • Identify and test new techniques to improve HPC forecasts • Provide training in new techniques to HPC forecasters • Host visiting forecasters and scientists • Principal Collaborators: • Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, JHT) • Forecasters and academia 32

21. HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011 • 14 participants (WFOs, SPC, AWC, HPC, • EMC, ESRL, and COMET) • Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount? • Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts? Experimental NAM HRW-ARW HRW-NMM Observed

22. OPC thoughts on an Ocean-Coastal Testbed Ocean Prediction Center within NOAA family Traditional role Provides operational data and forecast services Facilitate R2O by linking science and users Future Directions An operational infrastructure to deliver relevant (e.g., clock driven) NOAA services Enabling a broad range of NOAA applications (e.g., ocean, coastal, ecological) services Must rely on NOAA (e.g., NOS) R&D resource and expertise for product development Potential testbed focus areas Physical forecasts and guidance Storm Surge / Inundation Wind Current Interactions Water quality services Sea Surface Salinity data applications and assessments Ocean Color data applications Enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms, service delivery Ensemble (probabilistic) approaches

23. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) • Entering the JPSS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

24. Model Production Suite Atmosphere Ocean Cryosphere Land • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers • BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED

25. Ecological Forecast System: Ongoing Prototype Projects Chesapeake Bay Beach/Water Quality Living Resource Distribution Dissolved Oxygen Predictions Harmful Algal Bloom Disease Pathogen Progression Gulf Coast Gulf of Maine Great Lakes California Current Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ... Vibrio... Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic Barnacles, Muscles Algal Blooms and Dead Zones

26. Ecosystem Prediction Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition* • Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay • Generated since 2002 • Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007

27. Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH • Many of the oceanic consequences of climate change can best be explored with realistic high-resolution global ocean climate models, like those now being developed at GFDL. • Example below: The roles of ocean transport and microbial decay in determining the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, explored with a 1/8° global ocean climate model in a collaboration between NOAA/GFDL & NOAA/OR&R. Simulated Dissolved Oil Concentrations in the Mixed Layer on July 15, 2010 Omitting Microbial Decay with Microbial Decay (6 day Half-life) Reference: A. Adcroft, R. Hallberg, J.P. Dunne, B.L. Samuels, J.A. Galt, C.H. Barker and D.Payton (2010): Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044689, in press.

28. New Building Status • The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete. • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending. • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction. • In December 2010, the Receiver petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit for dismissal of the previous claim filed by Maryland Enterprises. The Federal Court granted the motion on February 9, 2011 and dismissed the claim filed by the developer. • These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project. • GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012 with complete move-in by July 2012.

29. Summary • NCEP is • Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” • Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events • Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach • A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery • Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities 29

30. Appendix 30

32. Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Space Weather Prediction Center

33. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

34. Record Scores Record Improvement

35. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

36. National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3 12 km 1.5 km Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs 6 km 3 km 3 km 4 km 1.33 km Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)

37. EUROSIP Update • MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet) • The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories) • CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP 37

38. Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means 8.02d Forecast day

39. 2010 (preliminary)