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Nuclear Energy for Sustainable Development - World Trends and Japan’s Policy - -

Thai MOFA: Nuclear Power, Feb. 15, ２ 011. Nuclear Energy for Sustainable Development - World Trends and Japan’s Policy - -. Sueo Machi Advisor to the MEXT, Japan Former Commissioner, Japan Atomic Energy Commission Former Deputy Director General, IAEA. Talking Points.

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Nuclear Energy for Sustainable Development - World Trends and Japan’s Policy - -

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  1. Thai MOFA: Nuclear Power, Feb. 15,２011 Nuclear Energy for Sustainable Development- World Trends and Japan’s Policy -- Sueo Machi Advisor to the MEXT, Japan Former Commissioner, Japan Atomic Energy Commission Former Deputy Director General, IAEA Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  2. Talking Points Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Roles of nuclear power for sustainable development Nuclear power policy of Japan Trends in Asia increasing nuclear power Japan’scooperation with Thailand for nuclear technology

  3. Nuclear Power for Energy Security • 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity • Global energy consumption increase by over 50% by 2030 (OECD/IEA) • Limited amount of fossil fuel reserve Oil for 41 years, Natural gas 67 y., Coal 164 y. (BP review 2005) • Rapidly increasing demand of energy for development in developing countries • Struggling with securing fossil fuels Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  4. Energy Consumptionper Capita in Developing Countries Including India & China Is Still Low Univ, Tokyo June 30, 2010 S. Machi Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi 4

  5. How to Address Energy Security • Expansion of nuclear energy • Saving energy: - Further energy saving in advanced countries - Transfer of energy saving technology to developing countries • Expansion of renewable energy, such as hydro, wind, solar and bio-fuels Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  6. Nuclear Power for • Low Carbon Energy • Mitigation of Climate Change Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  7. Tuvalu suffers see level rising and high tide (1996) 南太平洋のツバル。 1996年の高波の被害の写真 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  8. Climate Change Threatening Mankind“15,000 French citizens died by heat wave in 2003” Reduction of CO2 emission by 50% from 1990 level before 2050 is essential to avoid destructive climate change (Global consensus) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  9. CO2 Emission by Japan Emission of Japan 1.282 billion tons in 2008 1.6 % higher than 1990 level Emission ratio of Japan: 4% (2007) USA: 20% China: 21% India: 5% Commitment of USA & China in UNFCCC is essential Univ, Tokyo June 30, 2010 S. Machi 9 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  10. Reduction Target of GHG Emission Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Submitted to UNFCCC following COP-15 agreement (Jan. 31, ’10by 55 countries): Reduction by 2020 - Japan: －25% from ’90 level - EU: －20~30% from ‘90 level - USA: －15% from ‘05 level (-7% from ’90 level) - China: －40‐４５% in GHG/GDP（70% increase in GHG emission)

  11. Nuclear Power: Most Practical Power Generation to Reduce CO2 Emission Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  12. Nuclear Power: Zero Emission of CO2 in Operation * Coal Power Plant : 975g CO2 / kWh * Nuclear Power Plant : 22g CO2 / kWh Operation of 1 GW power plant (80% capacity factor) for 1 year emits CO2 of: Nuclear- 0.15 million ton Coal – 6.51 million ton LNG (combined cycle) – 3.04 million ton * Replacing coal power plant of 1GW by nuclear saves 6.40 million ton CO2 per year * 54 Nuclear power plants save about 20% total CO2 emission in Japan Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  13. Compatibility with Environment Energy Security and Stable Supply Cost Competitiveness The Government is responsible for strategic planning of energy supply and demand Basic Law on Energy Policy of Japan(effective 14 June, 2002) Three basic policies Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  14. Energy Supply Security : Priority Issue ◎ Japan’s Energy self-sufficiency : 4 % (Hydro) ◎ 89% of oil is imported from Middle East 250 エ ネ 200 ル （ ギ 150 ％ 原子力 ー ） 自 211 100 給 142 率 108 50 64 27 16 9 4 0 Germany Japan USA Italy UK Canada France Australia Energy security is very fragile Self-sufficiency Nuclear provides 14% of energy in Japan Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Univ, Tokyo June 30, 2010 S. Machi 14

  15. Japan’s Energy Basic Plan to 2030 ( METI, 2010) Fukui Int. Mtg. 3 June, 2010 S. Machi Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi 15 • Significant increase in nuclear power: 9 additional NPPs by 2020 (total 63 NPPs) More than 14 additional NPPs by 2030 Increase in operation factor to 90% • 70% of power is from non-CO2 emission source - By increasing nuclear power to 50% and - Increasing renewable energy to 10% • 70% of new cars with hybrid and/or electric • 100% light source by LED and/or Organic EL

  16. Nuclear Power in Japan54units 48.84GW in operation, 2 under construction, 12under planning to 2030 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  17. Cost Competitiveness of Nuclear Power in Japan Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  18. Capacity in 2004: Solar; 1130 MW, Wind; 930 MW Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  19. Nuclear Energy Policy of Japan (AEC 2005) Major Points -1 ● Increased contribution of nuclear energy to the energy security and the reduction of CO2 emission ● Through 21st century the ratio of nuclear power should be kept at the current level of 30-40% or higher ● The 1st commercial spent fuel reprocessing plant will be in operation in 2012. All of separated Pu-239 will be used for MOX fuels of 16-18 LWRs in 2015 (Genkai-3, Ikata-3 NPPs with MOX fuel started operation in 2009 and 2010) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi 4

  20. Nuclear Energy Policy of Japan (AEC 2005) Major Points-2 ● FBR and its fuel cycle should be developed to be commercially introduced around 2050.This contributes the energy security and reduction of long-lived high level radio-active wastes.Prototype FBR “Monju” has been re-started May 2010. • High Temperature Reactor • for hydrogen production is • in operation to produce 950℃ heat Monju Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi 5

  21. IAEA Projection 2009World Increase of Nuclear Power • Current status (December ’08 IAEA): -438 NPPs (372GW) in operation in 30 countries sharing 14% of global electricity since 1986; 44 NPPs under construction (28 are in Asia) • Projections by IAEA (‘09) -Increase from ca. 372GW to 473GW (low case)-748GW (high case) in ‘30 -Rapidly increase in Asia • IEA estimates 32 NPP increase per year to achieve 50% reduction of GHG by ‘50(June 6, WEO ‘08) : NPP increase by3 times (12%-23%) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  22. Nuclear Power Program in Asia-1 • Bangladesh:National Rooppur NPP project (2 x 600MW)：Cooperation agreement with Russia (May 2010) • China:13 NPPs (11 GW) in operation 24 NPPs under construction Total 40 GW in 2020 (4% of electricity) • India:15 NPPs, 3.4 GW; 25-30 GW increase by 2020 including FBR 0.5 GW by 201１ • Korea: 20 NPPs in operation, 6 under construction, 2 under planning,38 NPPs by 2030 • Pakistan:2 NPPs (462 MW), 1 (300MW) under construction, 2 under planning Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  23. Nuclear Power Program in Asia-2 • Indonesia: Two NPPs (1GW each)’15-’17 The final President’s decision for NPP construction will be made in ’11, MOU of cooperation with METI Japan • Philippines:Bataan NPP (620MW) not operated since ’87 was examined by IAEA (2009) for possible restart of operation；consulting with ROK • Thailand: - 1GW NPP in 2020, 1GW in 2021 • Vietnam: Four NPPs (1GW each) in 2020, 15-16 NPPs in 2030 - Construction Contract: First 2 units with Russia; Second 2 units with Japan (agreed at PM level) • Malaysia: FS of NPP approaching decision Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  24. Challenges of States Introducing The 1st Nuclear Power Plant Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Establishment of Infrastructure - Human resources development - Local supply chain of some components - Legislation for NPP license, non-proliferation of nuclear arms and safety regulation - Public acceptance and site selection of NPP IAEA is supporting about 60 states for NPP FS and planning

  25. GlobalChallenges for Expansion of Nuclear Power Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Non-proliferation of nuclear arms: Compliance with IAEA safeguards for verification Establishment of International Fuel Bank in IAEA was approved by the IAEA BG 13 Dec. 2010. IAEA agreed on fuel bank in Russia Safety assurance (State safety regulation, IAEA International Safety Convention) Nuclear security against terrorism Spent fuel managements: possible IAEA framework

  26. Public Acceptance and Trust on Nuclear Power Japan’s Policy for Public Acceptance (1) To make the process of nuclear policy decision be as transparent as possible (2) To make the information on nuclear incidence & accident transparent (3) To communicate as much as possible with the public on benefit, safety assurance and risk assessment of nuclear power by meetings, conference and media (4) Government support for development and welfare of communities where NPPs are located Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  27. Public Acceptance of Local Community for Construction of Nuclear Power Plant Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi • Full Communication with Public in the Community on Following Points: • Safety assurance of nuclear plant operation • Firm national policy to introduce nuclear power for security of energyand CO2 reduction • Training and recruitment of local people for nuclear power plant operation and maintenance • Government support for development and welfare of the community

  28. Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power is Essential Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Opinion Survey in ‘09 by the Cabinet Office Nuclear Power Promotion: ‘09 % (’05) -To be promoted 59.6 (55.1) -To be kept at current level 18.8 (20.2) -To be closed 16.2 (17.0) Nuclear Power Safety: -Safety is assured 41.8 (24.8) -Safety is not assured 53.9 (65.9)

  29. IAEA Public Opinion Survey on Nuclear Power in 2005 ● Nuclear is safe; build more plants: 28% ● Use what’s there; don’t build new: 34% ● Nuclear dangerous ;close down: 25% The survey polled 18,000 people in 18 countries ASEAN+3, Bangkok 16-17 June, '08 S. Machi

  30. Co-founder of Greenpeace, Mr. Patrick Moor • “My views have changed because nuclear energy is the only non-greenhouse-emitting power source effectively replace fossil fuels while satisfying the world’s increasing demand for energy.” (IAEA Bulletin, 2006 Sept.) Enhancing public acceptance Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  31. Nuclear Technology for Improving Everyday Life Enhances Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi - More productive agriculture Mutation breeding, Food irradiation, Sterile insect technique - Better human health Cancer therapy by radiation, Nuclear medicine for early diagnosis of cancer - Improved industrial process

  32. 3000 Better Varieties Developed by Radiation-Induced Mutation Breeding • Higher yield • Disease resistant • Early maturity • Drought resistant • Dwarf • Salt resistant Barley of Early Maturityin High Land of Peru (IAEA) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  33. Linear Accelerator (LINAC) Widely Used Radiotherapy Machine X-ray これは患者さんのセットアップの写真です。 治療中は、患者さんのみ治療室内に残り、技師さん達は治療室にいません。 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  34. Japan’s Cooperation in Nuclear Science and Technology with Asian Countries • FNCA（Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia）since1991: 11 projects & study panel (MEXT, CAO) • Nuclear Scientists Exchange Program (MEXT) since 1986: 1500 scientists and engineers have been invited in Japan for a year • Training programs for nuclear instructors since 1996, 97 instructors (MEXT) • Seminars on nuclear safety (MEXT) • Bi-lateral cooperation for nuclear power with Vietnam and Indonesia (METI) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  35. Nuclear Scientists Exchange Program (MEXT) since 1986 1500 scientists and engineers have been invited in Japan for a year Bangladesh86China549Indonesia244Korea136Malaysia89Philippines46Sri Lanka38Thailand176Vietnam131Total1495 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  36. Participating Countries:Australia, Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam (Observer: , Kazakhstan, Mongolia) FNCA Vision Statement (adopted 2000) FNCA（Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia） Ministerial Level The FNCA is to be recognized as an effective mechanism for enhancing socioeconomic development throughactive regional partnershipin the peaceful and safe utilization of nuclear technology. Senior Official Coordinator (one in each country) Ministerial Meeting （Ｎｏｖ．2，2006） Coordinators Meeting (Feb.7-9,’07,Tokyo) Project Leader 1１Projects Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  37. Opening by Deputy Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Naoto Kan Dec. 16, 2009 Underlining: -Importance of cooperation among countries in East Asia toward common developments using nuclear technology -Importance of nuclear power to achieve low carbon society Mr. Kanat FNCA MM Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  38. The 11thMinisterial MeetingNov. 18, 2010, Beijing, China Heads of 12 Delegations Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  39. FNCA Study Panel on Nuclear Power IssuedThe Joint Communiqué by Ministerial Meeting in 2007 Stating : 1. Importance of promoting civilian nuclear power for addressing global warming in a manner that ensures nuclear safety non-proliferation and security 2. Inclusion of nuclear power in CDM of Kyoto Protocol Signing Ceremony for Joint Communiqué 2007, Tokyo Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  40. Follow-up of the Joint Communiqué 1. Joint communiqué was circulated to ＩＡＥＡMember States as INFCIRC-725 in 2008 by the request of Japan 2. It was agreed that FNCA member countries should insist the inclusion of nuclear power in CDM or crediting mechanism at the appropriate sub-committee of COP in 2011 FNCA 3rd Study Panel-1, 30 July, 09 Machi

  41. New Establishment International Nuclear HRD Network: November 2010 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Efficient training of students and professionals of developing countries for nuclear engineering with collaboration of university, nuclear power company and nuclear research institute.

  42. Establishment of New Company: “Japan International NuclearEnergy Development” (JINED) in 2010 Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Members: - 9 power companies operating nuclear power plants and - 3 manufacturers of nuclear power and 1 agency Objectives: - To promote international nuclear power business

  43. Japan’s Possible Support for Developing Countries to Introduce the First NPP through Bi-lateral and Multi-lateralCooperation Univ, Tokyo June 30, 2010 S. Machi Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi 43 Sharing Experience and Knowledge for: - Development of infrastructure: safety regulation, legislation, feasibility study - Human resources development - Site selection, environmental assessment - Public acceptance - Design, construction, operation, and maintenance of plants

  44. Japan’s Nuclear Cooperation with Thailand Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Bilateral Agreement on cooperation in radiation processing with JAEA (1989) 176 Thai nuclear scientists and engineers studied in Japan since 1986 Thailand is key member of FNCA (Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia) hosted by Japan since 1991 Rajamangala Univ. of Technology has initiated nuclear engineering course with the cooperation of the Kyoto Univ. of Japan METI of Japan is consulting with MoE of Thailand for cooperation in the nuclear power program

  45. Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi Thank you for your attention

  46. Early History of Nuclear Power in Japan 1951World first nuclear power plant of 100 kW in USA 1953“Atoms for Peace” speech by President Eisenhower in UNGeneral Assembly(picture below) 1955 Establishment of Atomic Energy Commission, Japan 1957 Establishment of IAEA 1963 Japan Power Demonstration Reactor generated electricity (54 MWe) 1965 Japan’s first commercial nuclear power plant (166MW) started to generate electricity （世界原子力大学のサイトから） （経産省「原子力のページ」から） Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  47. GDP per capita CO2 emission per GDP (tonCO2/us$1,000) (us$1,000 /person) JapanAchieves Low CO2 Emission per GDP by Energy Saving and Nuclear Power Japan 0.21 44.8 USA 0.64 32.6 China 2.67 1.0 India 2.06 0.5 OECD/IEA 2000 France 0.21 29.1 Japan’s advanced technology of energy saving should be transferred to developing countries Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  48. World Nuclear Power Trends-1 1. Italia decided to start NP program (May ’08) ３．UKdecided to revive NPP program ４. USA4-8 new NPPs in operation by 2016. 26 new NPPs are submitted to USNRC 5. Turkey 4 NPPs of 4.8 GW 6. Poland 2 NPPs should be in operation by 2020 (Jan.09):MOC between METI of Japan and MOE Poland (Mar. 10) 7. Sweden scrapped old anti-nuclear policy 10 additional NPPs (Feb.’09) (May 27, Tokyo) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  49. World Nuclear Power Trends-2 ８．UAE decided to operate 1st NPP in 2017 (USA, France, UK, Japan signed cooperation agreement). Contract of 4 NPP construction was signed with ROK in Dec. 2009 9.Egypt decided to construct NPP by 2018 (2008) 10. South Africa operating 2 PWRs will construct 12 PWRs and 24 modules PBMR by 2030 11. Jordan’s The 1st NPP by 2015 (2007) 12. Kazakhstan started FS of NPP (2007) Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

  50. Prof. R.K.Pachauri, IPCC,Ｎｏｂｅｌ Prize ’07 • Pachuri said: Scientific consensus on the fact that climate system is changing • The climate changes have taken place very likelyby the results of human activity • IPCC4 Report:①Temperature increase by 2100;1.8-4.0C,②Sea level raise by 2100;２８-４３ｃｍ,③Increase of heat wave, ④Stronger cyclones in tropical zone Thai MOFA Nuc. Power Feb. 15 2011, S. Machi

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