The Good Life – or Dictatorship, Depression and Genocide?

1. The Good Life – or Dictatorship, Depression and Genocide? The Logic of Comparative Politics

2. I. Why Study Comparative Politics? • Internationalized Problems • Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil

3. Chernobyl Effects

4. I. Why Study Comparative Politics? • Internationalized Problems • Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil • Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse

6. I. Why Study Comparative Politics? • Internationalized Problems • Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil • Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse • Instability – Other countries’ wars and civil violence endanger our security

8. I. Why Study Comparative Politics? • Internationalized Problems • Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil • Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse • Instability – Other countries’ wars and civil violence endanger our security • Repression – Human rights violations affect us through immigration and international conflict

10. B. Domestic Problems • How can we preserve freedom at home? Look at cases where freedom failed… • How can we achieve economic growth? Look to other economies’ performance… • How can we protect our security? Examine security strategies of other countries…

11. C. Questions: Looking for variation • How independent should the judiciary be? Need examples of politicized judiciaries… • What effect does the two-party system have on politics and government? Need examples of multi-party systems… • What effect does government-sponsored universal health insurance have on health? Need examples of national health strategies…

12. II. The Comparative Method: Solving Problems and Answering Questions • Turn normative (value) problems into empirical (fact) ones. • Normative statements • Definition: Prescriptive statements about how the world should be or how we ought to behave • Keywords: Should, Ought, Right, Wrong, Best, Worst • Examples: What is the best government? Should we take measures to reduce inequality? Should we go to war?

13. 2. Empirical Statements • Definition: Descriptive, Explanatory, or Predictive statements about what the world is like or how it is likely to change • Keywords: Causes, Prevents, Affects, Increases, Decreases, Higher, Lower • Examples: Does democracy decrease the risk of war? Does a free market economy grow faster than a command economy?

14. B. Theories and Hypotheses • Identify the dependent variable (DV): What do you wish to explain? Chapter 2 has examples of problems… • Suggest possible independent variables (IVs) that might explain the dependent variable. Chapter 2 has a long list of IVs – Resources, Social Identity, Ideas, etc. • Hypothesize either a positive or negative relationship between each IV and the DV: • Positive (+): ↑ Wealth  ↑ Political Stability • Negative or Inverse (-): ↑ Corruption  ↓ Political Stability

15. 4. Theory: The story behind your hypotheses • Why did you expect a positive relationship? What causes what? • Are there other things you expect to find if this hypothesis turns out to be true?

16. Example: A theory of political stability with five hypotheses Dependent Variable Independent Variables Hypothesized Relationships

17. C. Hypothesis-Testing: Here Comes the Science 1. Gather evidence (data) on the DV and all IVs • Comparative Politics: Gather data for each country examined (Belgium, France, Sweden, Burundi, etc.), perhaps even each country-year (Belgium 1990, Belgium 1991, Belgium 1992, France 1990, France 1991, etc.) • Process: Gather data that might challenge the hypothesis (your selection of cases will be scrutinized closely for bias!) • Goal: Variables should…vary. Often a problem with single-country studies.

18. Example: Selection on the Independent Variable Does democracy increase economic growth?

19. Example: Selection on the Independent Variable Does your answer change?

20. Example: Selection on the Dependent Variable Does ethnic diversity cause civil war?

21. Example: Selection on the Dependent Variable Has the answer changed?

22. 2. Compare the hypotheses to the data • Is the hypothesis a deterministic law? Very rare… • Is the hypothesis a probabilistic law? • Is there a correlation between IV and DV? • Is the direction (+ or -) consistent with the hypothesis? • Evaluate the usefulness of the laws. • How much better can we predict if we know this law, versus knowing nothing but the average value of the DV? (Example: How much better do we do at predicting growth if we apply the law to each case than if we just guess “Medium” for every country?) • How much variation in the DV is left unexplained?

24. 3. Evaluate challenges to the theory • Could the DV be causing changes in the IV? Solution: Time (Cause must precede effect!) • Is the independent variable really an intervening variable? Solution: “Control” variables. • Did some hypotheses fail the test? What might have led to this failure? Solution: “Control” variables. • Do you need to modify your story to better predict the DV? • What new hypotheses are suggested by these results?

25. III. Defining Politics: A Starting Point for Models • Definition: “The authoritativeallocation of resources and values.” • Politics creates winners and losers • Key Terms: • Authority: Government has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, so it is the only one with the authority to allocate. • Resource Allocation: Money, labor, commodities • “Allocation” of Values: Deciding between incompatible moral or ethical principles

26. IV. How are resources authoritatively allocated? A Simple Process Model

27. A. Agenda-Setting • Proposing alternatives to the status quo • Status Quo: The way things are (the current system)

28. 1. Individuals

29. 1. Individuals

30. 1. Individuals -- Powerless alone

31. 2. Unorganized Groups

32. 2. Unorganized Groups -- Must be considered, but cannot set agenda

33. 3. Organized groups

34. 3. Organized groups -- Set agenda and shape citizen response

35. 4. Benefits of Organization a. Credible Commitment -- Conditional support b. Outreach -- Publicity, Money, Media Access c. Persuasion -- Information to representatives

36. 5. How to Initiate Change • Representatives: The Elected • Use Money, Votes, Publicity • Math for politicians: Anything + Money = Anything Else? • b. Bureaucrats: Experts and Career Officials – or Dictators • Use Information, Persuasion • c. Appointees: Judges, Cabinet, etc. • Target Appointers • d. ALL: Corruption or Revolution

37. B. Government Action1. Legislation a. Logrolling: You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours b. Partisanship: Leads to either partisan government or gridlock From the early American practice of neighbors gathering to help clear land by rolling off and burning felled timber.

38. 2. Implementation: Bureaucracy, Courts, and the “Rule of Law” a. Enforcement of laws • Relies on executive power and judicial capacity b. Regulations and Decrees… • Substitute for legislation in many dictatorships • Clarify legislation in democracies

39. C. Citizen Response • Media reports: Citizens base decisions on easily-accessible information, whether right or wrong • Elections and voting: Citizens may punish or reward leaders (retrospective voting) or look to the best candidate for the future (prospective voting) • Protest and Resistance: Citizens may ignore, disobey, protest, or fight government authority (Challenge to state’s monopoly on the legitimate use of force)

40. D. Implications of the Model • Agenda-Setting can determine the outcome of political struggles  organization key to political success • Democracies should prompt less violent resistance than autocracies (legal avenues for powerful interests to set agenda) • Rational politicians try to anticipate which coalitions will support or oppose them in elections or war  pre-empt opposition

41. V. Key Variables in Comparative Politics: Steps in the General Model… • How is the agenda set? • What issues or ideas (cleavages) divide unorganized groups? • How do people organize? • How do organized interests pressure the government? • How do governments decide? • Which coalitions do leaders have to please to remain in power? • What procedures exist to select between logrolling and partisanship? • Does partisanship produce partisan rule or gridlock? • How do citizens behave? • How do citizens perceive government action? • When are citizens likely to obey the law? • When are new leaders selected? • What form will citizen resistance take?

42. D. Why study these variables? • What causes civil war and genocide? • What causes depressions and recessions? • What causes political violence? Comparative Politics: At least some causes of these things lie in the political choices made by different countries’ people and governments -- and the cultures in which those choices are made