Presentation Transcript

1. Sustainable human settlements – a decision-support tool Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute School of Public Management and Planning Stellenbosch University South Africa
2. Key shifts in human settlement policy From housing, to human settlements From ‘one-size-fits-all’, to recognition of context From welfare for the poor (on the peripheries), to integrated human settlements From unsustainable resource use, to sustainable resource use – SI/DHS
3. Life Cycle Costing “It is the intention of the National Treasury to progressively require more detailed analyses as funding requests are becoming larger compared to available resources. Under these circumstances, it is appropriate to prioritise requests which can demonstrate the largest benefits to our country.” (MTEF Treasury Guidelines, 2007) Cost Effectiveness Analysis – NPV calculation of different ways of achieving the same goal
4. Unsustainable Design low density sprawl high unit costs of infrastructure escalating transport costs unhealthy & uncomfortable costly to operate inefficient urban design inappropriate building materials
5. Tool needed to... motivate a different way of seeing counter the logic of the standard template demonstrate financial viability apply Treasury guidelines to human settlements Assist Dept of Human Settlements – 3 year contract – open source
6. Building the model As built costs of RDP housing projects (all conventionally designed): actual cost of house, services & land Municipality’s operating costs – 40 yrs operating costs for household – 40 yrs size of capital subsidy (mainly DHS, but top up from Municipality)
7. Costing green interventions Discount Rate: 9% Solar hot water heater: R9 000 + R9 000 CFL lights: R88 Rainwater harvesting: R7 888 Hold-flush toilet: R5 545 Low-flow fixtures: R420 North-facing orientation: R2 500 larger north-side overhangs: R1 750 Ceilings: R3000 Ecological landscaping: R1000 Total cost: R93 941 (green options = R31 191)
8. Core Logic higher up front costs only justifiable if they reduce costs over the life cycle resulting in a total cost reduction compared to BAU (as per National Treasury requirements) - hence NPV of household savings NPV of savings on electricity & water reduced GHG emissions (carbon tax/credits) increased health & comfort of householders – non-quantifiable, but developmental
9. Model 220 000 units delivered nation-wide Capital subsidy: R60 000 Municipal top up: R2 750 Household pays for green interventions Conservative projections for energy/water prices But: if subsidy increased to R90 000 to pay for green interventions, major poverty and macro-economic impact
10. Only CFLs and low-flush fixtures – Subsidy = R60 000 ddfdd Break even: 1 yr Indiv. household benefit: R145 455 Energy saving: 232 320 MWh/yr CO2 emissions reduced: 278 784 tons/yr Water savings: 7 128 000 Kl/yr Household savings/yr: R182 m
11. Solar water heaters, CFL lights, rainwater harvesting, hold-flush toilet, Low-flow fixtures – Subsidy = R60 000 Breakeven: yr 4 Indiv. Household benefit: R387 334 Electricity saving: 673 200 MWh/yr CO2 emissions reduced: 807 840 tons/yr Water use: 19 419 840 Kl/yr Household savings/yr: R522 m
12. Solar water heaters, CFL lights, rainwater harvesting, hold- flush toilet, low-flush fixtures, north-facing, larger north- side overhangs, ceilings, landscaping – Subsidy = R90 000
13. Beyond minimalism multiple income categories city-wide settlement planning more interventions: location/transport, solar PV, bulk infrastructure (recycled sewage, waste), restoration of eco-system services, health additional funding sources
14. Future beyond minimizing damage restoration of life can human settlements become drivers of the green economy?