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The Knowledge Economy, Intangible Investment and Growth

The Knowledge Economy, Intangible Investment and Growth. Jonathan Haskel Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London j.haskel@ic.ac.uk British Embassy, Berlin 17 th June 2011. Can Europe grow out of trouble? The enduring productivity deficit.

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The Knowledge Economy, Intangible Investment and Growth

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  1. The Knowledge Economy, Intangible Investment and Growth Jonathan Haskel Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London j.haskel@ic.ac.uk British Embassy, Berlin 17th June 2011

  2. Can Europe grow out of trouble? The enduring productivity deficit Source: EUKLEMS and The Conference Board

  3. The R&D deficit… Source: OECD STI indicators

  4. …and now with China Source: OECD STI indicators

  5. Driving growth in knowledge economies • GDP per worker driven by • Physical capital deepening • Within the firm: ICT • Outside the firm: infrastructure • Human capital deepening • General education of labour force • Immigration • Ideas/innovation/intangible capital deepening • Use of ideas • Within the firm: investment • in R&D • and non-R&D (software, design, training, branding, organisation) • From outside the firm: open innovation

  6. So, why is Europe lagging? • Composition • Larger public sector in Europe brings average down? • Too much financial services? • Physical capital? • Lower computer adoption? • Human capital? • Ideas/Innovation/Intangible capital? • Low R&D. But is R&D the whole story?

  7. Measuring all intangible investment • Knowledge investment is more than just R&D • Software • Innovative property • Scientific R&D • Design • Financial services product development • Artistic originals • Economic competencies • Marketing • Training • Firm organisational capital

  8. Intangible/tangible investment varies significantly across countries Source: OECD/COINVEST project

  9. How does composition of intangible investment vary?(Investment by intangible assetshare in GDP, 2005 selected countries) Source: OECD/COINVEST project

  10. Manufacturing is not manufacturing any more… Source: COINVEST

  11. Knowledge is the key to growth(growth accounting, 1995-06) Source: OECD/COINVEST project

  12. Policy?

  13. Strict employment protection correlated with low intangible investment… Source: COINVEST

  14. …as is many days to start a business. Source: COINVEST

  15. Government R&D can help… Source: COINVEST

  16. …and note that strictness positively correlated with tangibles. …. Source: COINVEST

  17. Implications • Key importance of knowledge • Knowledge = Intangibles and TFP = major contributors to growth • It’s not just R&D • Manufacturing is not manufacturing any more • Policy : what not to do • Stop obsessing about manufacturing and just R&D • Policy: what to do • All investment needs long term tax and regime certainty. Bank regulation? • Government Science Budgets and public R&D will help • Employment regulation • Part of overall social contract • Helps tangibles, hurts intangibles • So the choice: do we want growth from catch-up or innovation?

  18. spares

  19. Manufacturing: Ge leads, but mostly intermediates. Sw intangible based Retail: Sw leads. TFP important FinBizServices: UK lead, intangibles important

  20. Source: Hao et al. (2009) for Germany, France, Italy and Spain; CHS (2009) for the US , Marrano et al. (2009) for the UK, Jalava et al. (2007) for Finland, Fukao et al. (2009) for Japan, Edquist (2009) for Sweden, Van Rooijen-Horsten et al. (2008) for the Netherlands and Barnes and McClure (2009) for Australia. GDP per capita is from the Total Economy Database of The Conference Board.

  21. Sweden and UK are most intangible intensive….with Germany following….. 23

  22. In which industries do countries invest of their intangible capital?Ge most intangible investment in manufacturing, UK in services

  23. Intangible contributionsRetail: similar; Mfr: Sweden high; Finance: UK high

  24. An innovation gap?

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