Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?

1. Climate change:Are we up to the challenge? Graeme I Pearman Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash University Board, The Climate Institute, START International

2. Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? What is the climate change issue? Aust. Inst. Physics/Roy. Aust. Chemical Inst. Climate Change: Spreading the GOOD News

3. The climate change issue Climate system Climate impacts Aspirations Energy supply/demand Rainfall Climate change Sea level Biodiversity Efficiency Agriculture Emissions Population Energy demand Human health Choice of technology Affluence GDP

4. The climate change issue Climate system Climate impacts Aspirations Energy supply/demand Rainfall Climate change Sea level Biodiversity Efficiency Agriculture Emissions Population Energy demand Human health Choice of technology Affluence GDP • Risk assessment • Beliefs • Ignorance • Sectoral interests • Vested interests • Natural resources • Ignorance • Market failure • Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of: • Wellbeing • Success Culture, education, advertising, promotions

5. What is possible? What we know and don’t know is based on: • Principles of physics and fluid dynamics • Greenhouse gases impact global temperature known for 120 years • Observed change - distant past • We can not take climate stability for granted • Observed change - recent past • Warming has occurred with associated changes to biology, water availability, etc. • Anticipated future climate change • Unless emissions are reduced, warming will continue • Anticipated impacts • On all sectors of the society, but unevenly spread • Uncertainty • Remains and this will always be so

6. Key questions to be addressed • What is climate change? • The change to the long-term weather due to greenhouse gases • Has the Earth’ climate changed in the past? • Yes, “enormously” through geologic times • Has the climate changed recently? • Yes, the atmosphere and oceans have warned globally and in Australia • Are humans the cause? • Our use of energy is increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and this is very likely the reason for recent warming

7. Key questions to be addressed • What will happen into the future? • Depends on how much more we emit these gases • What are the consequences? • It will have significant impact on society and the environment • How do we deal with the uncertainties of the science? • We weigh the probability of the scientific projections being correct against the impact if they are • But this challenges many who wish perfect anticipation of the future

8. Global surface temperature changerelative to 1951-1980 mean Hanson et al. (2010)

9. Trend in sea surface temperature, 1970-2009 (oC/10 years) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi

10. Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.

11. Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements 40 20 Change in mean sea level (mm) 0 -20 http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.

12. It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate Australian Bureau of Meteorology

13. + 1.0 + 0.4 Pressure (hPa) 0.0 0.0 Temperature (oC) - 1.0 - 1.0 1920 1940 1960 1980 Long-term changes of the intensity (pressure ) of the Autumn-Winter subtropical ridge and global average temperature Timbal et al. (2009): South eastern Australian Climate Initiative

14. Planetary biology is changing Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr. E.g. For south-eastern Australia marine fish • “dramatic” warming of the ocean observed • 45 species of fish exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related

15. Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue?

16. Emissions are on the high side of projections Role of coal High end of projections Affluence and expectations Economic growth in developing world Dec. 02, 2009 Le Quéréet al. (2009).

17. National anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasesMt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2009 Australia 549 Canada 732 China 7219 France 550 Germany 977 Italy 566 Indonesia 594 Japan 1343 Russia 1960 United Kingdom 665 United States 6964 World Resources Institute (2009)

18. Emissions Per Person

19. 0 Power Industry Transport Buildings Forestry Agriculture Cost curve to reduce emissions by 249 Mt CO2e by 2020 Cost to society A$/tCO2e 200 Commercial retrofit energy waste reduction Gas CCS new build Cement clinker substitution by slag Other industry energy efficiency Solar PV (centralised) Reduced deforestation and regrowth clearing Commercial retrofit HVAC Coal CCS new build Cropland carbon sequestration Wind offshore Residential appliances and electronics Reforestation of marginal land with environmental forest Degraded farmland restoration Mining energy efficiency Solar thermal Residential lighting 100 Coal CCS new build with EOR Residential new builds Capital improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency Commercial retrofit lighting Commercial elevators and appliances Commercial new builds Commercial retrofit insulation 0 Anti-methanogenic treatments Pasture and grassland management Onshore wind (marginal locations) Aluminium energy efficiency Mining VAM oxidation Biomass co-firing Reforestation of marginal land with timber plantation Coal to gas shift (increased gas utilisation) Active livestock feeding -100 Operational improvements to existing coal plant thermal efficiency Geothermal Improved forest management Reduced T&D losses Petroleum and gas maintenance Biomass/biogas Cogeneration Coal to gas shift (gas new build) Commercial retrofit water heating Onshore wind (best locations) Petrol car and light commercial efficiency improvement -200 Chemicals processes and fuel shift Reduced cropland soil emissions Strategic reforestation of non-marginal land with environmental forest Diesel car and light commercial efficiency improvement Operational improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency 0 50 100 150 200 250 Emissions reduction potential Mt per year SOURCE: ClimateWorks, Monash

20. E.g. The energy sector • Particularly impacted by emissions reduction efforts • Taxes, trading schemes, energy efficiency, alternative energy sources • Weighed against expense to agriculture, water sector, natural environment, tourism, national or regional security, etc. • Need for more holistic options whereby interests of any one sector/nation do not: • Dominate policy development or the availability of information

21. Future motor vehicle fuel security Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Increased global demand-Falling availability Limited supplies-peak oil Threat of conflict Energy efficiency targets 3. Carbon dioxide Oil Imports 1. Fuel security 2.Balance of payments Renewable energy targets Emissions Rapidly diminishing national production 4. Pollutants Human health Rising costs Motor vehicle fuels and technologies Biofuels Food, water 5. Rising demand Employment Social coherence Affluence Population

22. Notional futures of oil for car transport August 07, 2010 Jamison (2009)

23. Carbon dioxide emissions under notional futures for Australian car transport Pearman et al. (2009)http://www.mynrma.com.au/cps/rde/xbcr/mynrma/Jamison-Group-Fuelling-Future-Passenger-Vehicle-Use-in-Australia-February2010.pdf?cpssessionid=SID-34E2763C-9A249675 60 CO2 emissions with business as usual 40 Intervention but brown coal electricity generation Intervention but black coal electricity 20 With intervention (renewable electricity) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions, (TgCO2 or Mt CO2)

24. Energy options, the rush is on: Energy efficiency strategies • Reducing the reliance on energy for production, transportation and storage • Resources use and recovery • Mitigation is an urgent/essential response but needs to: • Consider many options: uncertainties surround all options- economics, technologies, rate of implementation, societal and environmental issues: Deliver resilience

25. McIntosh (2008): Hell and High Water: Climate Change, Hope and the Human Condition “….the problem is driven not by fundamental human needs, but by manipulated wants that find expression in consumerism”

26. Affluenza • “The bloated, sluggish unfulfilled feeling that results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses” • “An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged pursuits of the Australian dream” • “An unsustainable addiction to economic growth” • “a condition in which we are confused about what it takes to live a worthwhile life” Hamilton and Denniss (2005): Affluence: When too much is never enough

27. Messages about sustainability The climate change issue results from: Our expectations Culture, history, education, market economy, advertising Technological innovations Our choices Natural resource inheritance

28. Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue? • What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?

29. Magnitude/sensitivity to change Probability of change Mitigate Socio-Economic capacity Potential Exposure Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity Strategy Willingness to adapt Risk Vulnerability Managed adaptation Resilience

30. How well do we assess risk? There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747 How many could be removed or rendered inoperable before you would decide not to fly? IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC There has been virtually no media or public attention to this risk What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems?

31. oC 2050 2100 22 C 7 2050 2100 Equil 6 Energy Security Water availability Food Security Coastal Communities Tourism Heat related deaths Major Infrastructure Natural Ecosystems 5 Agriculture and Forestry Equil 2100 2050 2050 2100 Equil 4 3 2 1 450 550 750 Ref Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

32. Science pursues “truth” and thus is typically lagging, searching for certainty • In contrast, risk management is pragmatic and proactive stance (leading approach) aimed at balancing the probabilities of an event occurring against its potential impact • This disparity often leads the general community to underestimate the practical risks implicated by scientific conclusions Pearman and Härtel (2009)

33. Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/

34. Assumption about rationality Common assumptions People are essentially rational Rationality is conscious (we choose) Denial is a kind of irrationality Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information Alternative assumptions What is rational in one context may be irrational in another Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious Every rationality is guided by emotion De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC Fien et al. (2008): personal communication

35. Standard economics:Assumes “…all human decisions are rational and informed..” Behavioural economics: “ …people are susceptible to irrelevant influences …emotions, short-sightedness” Ariely (2009): Predictably Irrational Now Identity Economics “Peoples identity defines who they are..(and this) influences their decisions..” Akerlof and Kranton (2010): Identity economics

36. Leadership • At all levels: Government Federal, State and Local, UK, bi-lateral, you • Industry: • “Look beyond coal, big miner says” • “a clear price on energy” • “Failure to do so will place us at a competitive disadvantage. • BHP Billiton Marius Kloppers CEO • The Age, September 16, 2010 • You, at home, work, in the community Probis Club of Melbourne

37. Human dimensions of What is Possible? Capturing of advice Role of science, media, education Nature of scepticism Experiential versus observational/theoretical views Scepticism as a tool or a crutch Formulation of attitudes Perception of success Belief/value structures, religion, cultural, ethos of sustainability Basic belief structures Conservatisms, consumerism and competition Vested interests Managing risk Perception of risk and probabilities, response to threat Role of companies, governments and the individual Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

38. Change Management Based on Hiatt (http://www.change-management.com/tutorial-definition-history.htm

39. Human dimensions of What is Acceptable? Dealing with uncertainty and probability Weighing probabilities, reality and the non-reality world Acceptance of change versus protection of status quo Risk assessment Capturing opportunities, reluctance to act/change Concerns/perceived responsibilities for culture and environment Sharing responsibility Government and/or personal or corporate responsibilities Behavioural and/or institutional change Technologies and/or behavioural change Mitigation and/or adaptation Perceptions of danger Value of present and/or future Perceived values of biodiversity Personal responsibility and empowerment Given “rights”, cultural connections, loss of identity and place Strategic-ness versus conservativeness Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

40. Human dimensions of What is Equitable? Recognising personal/regional differences in: Exposure, capacity to adapt mitigate & fund responses Understanding/awareness of CC & available options Matching differential exposure to aspirational needs of the wider community Responding with Formal, workforce and public education Improved/new management and energy practices Balance across all sectors and jurisdictions Changes to personal lifestyles and expectations Protections in transition for exposed sectors/persons Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

41. Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction Convergence Social evolution Success Technological opportunities Social institutions No relation to where the future might best be Environment Diversity Biological evolution Success Time Time/selection

42. Hill (2006 p8): What Are Rational Goals For Development?

43. Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue? • What is it about us that makes it hard to respond? • Conclusions

44. Messages about sustainability Solutions to the climate change issue depend on: Acceptance that we will not know all that we would like to know before action is necessary We have to manage the risk We need to challenge the largely unconscious drivers of our behaviour, institutions and society Commercialism Advertising Non-strategic social evolution

45. Things to do Understand your “energy” and “water” footprints How much you use From what activities With what flexibility It is empowering- you have personal options then Set targets of reduction Monitor power, gas and petroleum bills Assess $ and carbon savings Reward success Your kids Your employees Be educated/equipped to make better purchases Tell others Especially local and regional Governments Your teacher, parents, boss Above all, examine what it is that is really important

46. Climate change: A most challenging issue Diabolical because it is: Uncertain in its format and extent Insidious rather than (as yet) confrontational Long-term rather than immediate International as well as national Dangerous in the absence of effective mitigation It results from the very way we are as individuals and the way our societies have evolved Our aspirations and energy demands Concepts of what represents ‘success’ and ‘happiness’ Institutional frameworks that influence conformity and community-wide values Solutions depend on changes that potentially threaten those aspirations, belief systems and attitudes