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Academia Mexicana de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Academia Mexicana de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México The need of scientific and technological research as a principle to the implantation of renewable energy. José Franco y Claudio A. Estrada G8+5 Meeting in Rome March 2009. Human population. Demographic waves.

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Academia Mexicana de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

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  1. Academia Mexicana de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México The need of scientific and technological research as a principle to the implantation of renewable energy José Franco y Claudio A. Estrada G8+5 Meeting in Rome March 2009 1 www.cie.unam.mx

  2. Human population. Demographic waves • 10 thousand years ago (starting from the agriculture) hundreds of thousands • 4 thousand years ago (starting from the first cities) millions (250 millions at the beginning of the Christian era) • 1600: 500 millions de habitants • 1830: 1 mil millions • 1930: 2 mil millions • 1960: 3 mil millions • 1974: 4 mil millions • 1987: 5 mil millions • 1999: 6 mil millions • 2007: 6 mil 500 millions 2 www.cie.unam.mx

  3. Human population Perhaps the main driving forces of the global environmental crisis is the human population 3 www.cie.unam.mx

  4. 19.7 % 14 % 80.3 % 86 % Current status of energy worldwide World primary energy supply Average Annual Increase ~ 2% 4 www.cie.unam.mx Source: IEA Energy Statistics 2004

  5. Correlation between Gross Internal Product (GIP) and electricity consumption Perhaps the growth population have being caused by the development of science and technology and the existence of a huge amount of cheap and high density energy source. Human develop index 5 www.cie.unam.mx

  6. Current status of energy worldwide 6 www.cie.unam.mx Source: IEA Energy Statistics 2004

  7. K. Hubert (USA) Current status of energy worldwide The oil production in USA (above) reached its maximum in 1970, following the predictions. When the world production reach its maximum, it will be the end of cheap oil. (Courtesy: Science, vol. 281, Aug. 21,1998, p.1128; C. Campbell & J. Laherrere) 7 www.cie.unam.mx

  8. Oil reserves vs production (R/P) Current status of energy worldwide The oil reserves could end in less than 42 years Proven reserves/Production oil: 42 years Natural Gas: 65 years Coal: 155 years 8 www.cie.unam.mx Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

  9. Climate change: atmospheric CO2 content 9 www.cie.unam.mx

  10. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change Global mean temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover 10 www.cie.unam.mx

  11. Energy in Mexico. Mexico is an oil country Structure of the Primary Energy Production (2005) (9819.713 petajoules) 92 % fossil, 11 www.cie.unam.mx Source: Balance Nacional de Energía, 2005 SENER

  12. Installed electrical power generation capacity by technology in 2006. CFE (Federal Electricity Commission) Current status of energy in Mexico 48, 779 MWe 73 % from fossil fuels 12 www.cie.unam.mx Source: Balance Nacional de Energía, 2007 SENER

  13. Reserves/production evolution, 1995-2005 Number of years Current status of energy in Mexico Proven reserves/ Production Oil 9.6 Years Natural Gas 11.3 Years Source: BP International Repport of Energy, 2006 13 www.cie.unam.mx

  14. The future of energy in the world Which energy sources can help us to cope with the depletion of oil and gas fields, preserving at the same time the environment for a sustainable development? 14 www.cie.unam.mx

  15. 30 TW 2050 15 TW 2008 15 TW The future of energy in the world The hydrocarbon energy gap Installed capacity Required Capacity 1 TW = 1012 W : 1,000 EPG Complexes of 1,000 MW each Source:Renewable in Global Energy SupplyIEA 2004 15 www.cie.unam.mx

  16. Theoretical global potential Theoretical global potential Technically feasible potential Technically feasible potential Installed capacity (2003) Installed capacity (2003) Hydro Hydro 4.6 TW 4.6 TW 0.7 TW 0.7 TW 0.3 TW 0.3 TW Biomass Biomass 7 a 10 TW 7 a 10 TW 5 TW 5 TW 1.4 TW 1.4 TW Geothermal Geothermal 12 TW 12 TW 0.6 TW 0.6 TW 0.054 TW 0.054 TW Wind Wind 50 TW 50 TW 2 a 4 TW 2 to 4 TW 0.0063 TW 0.0063 TW Solar Solar 600 TW 600 TW 60 TW 60 TW 0.0051 TW 0.0051 TW Total Total Aprox. 676 TW Aprox. 676 TW Aprox. 70 TW Aprox. 70 TW 1.73 TW 1.73 TW The future of energy in the world Renewable energy sources Nuclear 17.5 TW 10 TW 0.845 TW 1 TW = 1012 W : 1,000 EPG Complexes of 1,000 MW each Source:Renewable in Global Energy SupplyIEA 2004 16 www.cie.unam.mx

  17. Challenges for the next decades • Access of emerging countries (China, India, Brasil, México…) and less developed countries to the modern energy sources (electricity and fuels) required for their development. • Avoiding strong geopolitical tensions for the control of energy sources (as in the case of hydrocarbons) and • Without irreversible degradation of the environment, particularly by the emission of greenhouse gases. 17 www.cie.unam.mx

  18. In the future REs will contribute to solve the energy problem of the World and Mexico Driving factors • Increase in the international prices of oil and gas (towards 150 dollars per barrel?). • Global CO2 emissions market (towards 40-60 dollars per Ton?). • Voluntary policies of several countries (EU and its members, USA, China, India, Brasil) + local initiatives. • Accelerated progress of renewable energy technologies by scientific and technological research. 18 www.cie.unam.mx

  19. Driving factors • 43 countries have defined and implemented RE promotion policies . • These policies are exerting a decisive influence in the growth of RE markets: • Target setting for increased participation of REs in the energy sector, • Promotion of power generation, • Promotion of solar heating and cooling in the industrial and residential sectors, • Promotion of biofuels, • Voluntary policies of green power purchasing and introduction of green tariffs, • Promotion of RE at the municipal level, • Promotion of RE in the rural sector. • Policies for promotion of research and development in RE. 19 www.cie.unam.mx

  20. Worldwide examples of recent policy pro-RE Driving factors • 25 countries of the EU have defined an average target for 2010: 25% participation of RE in electricity generation and 12% in total energy consumption. • Spain (Real ordinances of 1994,1997-98, 2002): 30% target for primary energy consumption from RE in 2020. • China (RE law, January 2006): 15% target for primary energy consumption from RE in 2020, 60,000 MWe are planed. • USA: increases budget for RE in 2006 (+65% biomass, +79% solar, +13% wind). 20 www.cie.unam.mx

  21. The World Market of RE 21 www.cie.unam.mx

  22. Annual Investment in Renewable Energy (1995-2005) The World Market of RE 22 www.cie.unam.mx

  23. Renewable Energy Added and Existing Capacities, 2005 The World Market of RE 23 www.cie.unam.mx

  24. Electrical power production in 2004 The World Market of RE ** Geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean. 24 www.cie.unam.mx

  25. Are the RE technologies competitive? Retail consumer power price Wholesale power price Small hydro Solar photovoltaic Concentrating solar Biomass Geothermal Wind 10 20 30 40 50 Power generation costs in USD cents/kWh The World Market of RE 25 www.cie.unam.mx

  26. Capital cost of different RE technologies for power generation The World Market of RE • The capital cost of RE technologies will decrease in the future. • The higher reduction will occur in PV. 26 www.cie.unam.mx

  27. The World Market of RE 27 www.cie.unam.mx

  28. Market penetration = Quality of power disponibility The World Market of RE Development of electrical power generation in the UE-25 (2000-2030) ¿Greater pressure on RE technologies without the guaranty of power disponibility? 28 www.cie.unam.mx

  29. The World Market of RE Use of RE in electrical markets Guaranty power disponibility and adopt the demand curve will be added values to the penetration of RE in the energy mix markets. • RE must be used efficiently • Capacity of hybridization technology, storage energy and renewable fuel production must be the valorisation tools • Each country must adapt to its naturals resources 29 www.cie.unam.mx

  30. Investment in R & D + i in RE 30 www.cie.unam.mx Source: http://www.iea.org/rdd/eng/

  31. Investment in R & D + i in RE Public investment in R&D+i in RE technologies in the IAE countries. 1974-2002 31 www.cie.unam.mx

  32. 100 Scaleing15% 90 80 I+D+i 60% Production cost 70 60 Series and market 25% 50 40 Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Investment in R & D + i in RE Impact of innovation on cost reduction 32 www.cie.unam.mx

  33. Industrial development Fundamental research Innovation (90%) (10%) Technological innovation 33 www.cie.unam.mx

  34. Future Energy Projections Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de 34 www.cie.unam.mx

  35. Year Objective: Sustainable growth of the world primary energy demand Future Energy Projections 35 www.cie.unam.mx Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de

  36. Consideraciones para la planificación energética • Seguridad del suministro energético • Reservas de las fuentes energéticas • Precios ($/Mtoe, $/Kw) y Costos (c$/kWh) • Minimización del impacto ambiental 36 www.cie.unam.mx

  37. EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity Technology matured • Objective: • Increment of efficiency and cost reductions • Small hydro • – Reconciliation of economy and ecology by means of adequate equipment and mitigations rules. • Geothermal • – Reduction of installation costs by a factor of 3 in new technologies of exploration, perforation, thermoelectric convertion. 37 www.cie.unam.mx

  38. EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity Emerging technology with fast growth • Objective: • Ensure the systems development to high scale. • Wind • – Accelerate the development of larger turbines, larger systems, marine systems, complex land and extreme ambient conditions. • Solar photovoltaic • – Important reductions of costs by mean of R&D in materials for cells and processes, design and production of modules, components and systems. 38 www.cie.unam.mx

  39. EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity Available technology with great potential to develop • Objective: • Empower the market development and increase the velocity of development. • Biomass • –Biofuel production, develop of supply chains, separation and pretreatment. • – relievable conversion processes: combustion, gasification, fermentation, etc. • Solar Thermal • – Develop of applications for heating and cooling. • – Technology innovation and first commercial projects of solar thermal power plants. 39 www.cie.unam.mx

  40. EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity Technology to be matured • Objective: • Technological development for the first generation of reliable systems. • Tide, Wave and Ocean Energy • –Projects technical and financial relievable to use the energy of waves. • – Development of pilot projects and demonstrations of farm type with multi devises. 40 www.cie.unam.mx

  41. RENEWABLE ENERGY Direct and Indirect Forms of Solar Energy Renewable Resources will have to provide at least 50% of the world’s energy by 2050 41 www.cie.unam.mx

  42. In summary RE in Mexico • Mexico has been doing some efforts to promote RE. • Geothermal: 953 MWe, 30 year of development. • Wind: 83 MWe, under construction. • Solar: 25 MWe in a complex of 950 MWe Combine cycle, under construction. • Bioenergy: A law has been approved by the congress and a very recent initiative to start the massive production of ethanol in order to have 7 mil 840 barrels by the end of 2012. …….. but very limited. 42 www.cie.unam.mx

  43. Conclusions 1 • Mexico requires a paradigm shift in the energy production • Mexican hydrocarbon reserves will be depleted in 10 years at the current consumption and exportation rates. • Current energetic infrastructure makes Mexico highly dependent for technological reasons and importation of fuels (natural gas, gasoline). • The use of fossil fuels generates greenhouse gasses that contribute to the climate change. 43 www.cie.unam.mx

  44. Conclusions 2 • RE has the potential to solve the energetic problem of Mexico: • They are an abundant resource in the country with the potential to supply the energy demand in a sustainable manner in the cities and the countryside. • The country has the human resources to generate the research and development required for technology appropriation and to promote a national industry in RE. • This would imply the creation of tens of thousand of new jobs. 44 www.cie.unam.mx

  45. Conclusions 3 • To guaranty the sustainable development of the country, the Mexican government should compromise with a long term vision of RE exploitation. • It is necessary to generate the policies, legal and economic frameworks for the massive deployment of RE in the country. • A short, medium and long term national strategic plan for the utilization of RE must be generated. • A National Renewable Energy Commission and a National Renewable Energy Institute should be created, together with a national network of regional R&D&I centers in RE. 45 www.cie.unam.mx

  46. Thank you for your attention! dir@cie.unam.mx www.cie.unam.mx 46 www.cie.unam.mx

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