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Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE

Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE. Anchors: Renu Rao Kaveh Saba. GENIE. Genie stands for Graphical Network Interface Used to graphically represent probability results Can predict probability of an outcome and the results of related variables

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Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE

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  1. Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE Anchors: Renu Rao Kaveh Saba

  2. GENIE • Genie stands for Graphical Network Interface • Used to graphically represent probability results • Can predict probability of an outcome and the results of related variables • Advantage: Enables analysis of noisy data and uncertain variables

  3. Download and Installation Website: http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/ Click ‘Download’ – Shown in red Click ‘Register’ after entering user information Select Genie 2.0 to initiate download

  4. Specifics • Node: a factor that has a pre-determined probability • Identifier: A valid variable name in the programming language • Node name: Enter what the node actually represents • Entering a probability: Each node has ansuccess and failure probability which must add to 1 and they can be entered by clicking ‘Add’ under node properties.

  5. Michigan’s Next Football Coach • We can use GENIE to determine the probability that Les Miles will be next head coach at Michigan • Known probabilities: • 40% Les Miles coaches Michigan next season • If he coaches UofM, then 20% chance that LSU won the BCS national title • If LSU wins national title, then 85% chance that OSU sucks • We Know that OSU SUCKS, what is probability that Les Miles becomes coach of Wolverines next season?

  6. Set Up Model with GENIE • Open Program • Set up node for Les Miles decision Use this icon to set up Node

  7. Set Up Model with GENIE 3. Double-click on node 4. Specifier Identifier and Name as Use this icon to set up Node

  8. Set Up Model with GENIE 5. On definition tab, specify probabilities

  9. Set Up Model with GENIE 6. Set up Nodes for other factors

  10. Set Up Model with GENIE • Specify Identifier, Name, and Probabilities for each Node

  11. Set Up Model with GENIE 8. Example: Probability LSU wins BCS 20% Chance LSU won BCS if Les Miles UofM Coach

  12. Set Up Model with GENIE 9. Connect the Nodes Use this icon to connect the Nodes

  13. Determine Probability 10. Set Evidence for Last Node We Know that OSU SUCKS!

  14. Determine Probability 11. Double-Click on Les Miles Node, click on ‘Value’ tab

  15. Conclusions • 21.4% chance that Les Miles coach at UofM, knowing that OSU sucks • After his press conference on Saturday, percentage looks closer to 0 • Bring on Jeff Tedford

  16. Thank you for your time

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