State of the World 2004

1. Making Better Energy Choices Janet L. Sawin State of the World 2004

2. The path we are on is unsustainable, but not inevitable Overview: • Trends in global energy consumption • Why our current path is not sustainable • We can do far better without sacrificing quality of life • Forging a different path

3. Energy That Moves Us Transportation: The world’s fastest growing form of energy use, largely due to the rise of the private car

4. Numbers • 531 million private vehicles around the world • Numbers rising: 11 million more each year Size and Weight • More than 50% of vehicles bought in the U.S. are SUVs or other light trucks Distances Traveled - Around the world, we are taking more trips and traveling greater distances Rise of the Private Car

5. Energy Where We Live and Work • Building Trends: • Energy use in buildings is rising rapidly • International Energy Agency predicts that world electricity demand will double between 2000 and 2030, with most rapid growth in people’s homes

6. House size • Average new U.S. home grew by 38% from 1975-2000 • Larger homes require more energy to build, heat, cool, and light Household Size • Number of people living in each home is declining • Thus, more homes are required for a given population Appliances • Increasing in numbers, types, and sizes • - Fastest growing energy consumers after cars Household Trends

7. Energy in Everything We Buy • Manufacturing: • Largest share of global energy use goes to manufacturing our vehicles, buildings, appliances, and even our food and clothes • Embodied energy: energy invested in a particular thing during its lifetime, from cradle to grave • Much of the energy embodied in an item is that required to produce it

8. Homes • Can live in a typical U.S. home for 10 years before energy used in it exceeds energy that went into components and construction Food • Worldwide, 21% of fossil fuel use goes to grow, process, package, transport, and cook our food Cars • Energy needed to manufacture cars, to build and maintain infrastructure • Petroleum refining devours about 8% of U.S. energy Embodied Energy

9. Where We Have Been… Global Energy Use, 1900-2002 TPES (millions of tons of oil equivalent) Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)

10. Past and Projected Global Energy Use, 1900-2030 projected actual TPES (millions of tons of oil equivalent) 1900 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) …and Where We Are Going!? (if current trends continue)

11. 2. Our Unsustainable Path • Impacts of energy production and use • Environmental: air, soil, and water pollution, climate change • Social: impacts on human health, costs to communities where fuels are extracted • Economic and security: costs of relying on imported fuel from unstable regions of the world • Disparities within and among countries • Resource availability

12. Extreme Imbalance • Huge disparity in energy consumption between and within industrial and developing nations • World’s richestpeople consume on average 25 times more energy than world’s poorest

13. Annual Per Capita Energy Consumption, Selected Countries 8.1 4.1 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 * China excludes Hong Kong 0.3 Per Capita Consumption of Commercial Energy (tons of oil equivalent)

14. Resource Availability • Impossible for everyone in developing world to consume as much as an average American Ex.: If everyone in China used as much oil as the average American, China alone would need more oil than the entire world produced in 2001 • Many analysts predict that, even at current world consumption rates, global oil production will peak before 2020

15. 3. Energy Use and Quality of Life What are the objectives of increased energy use? …growing our economy? …achieving a better quality of life! How much energy do we really need?

16. But, no fixed relationship exists between energy use and perceived quality of life Energy Use and Quality of Life • Linkages exist: - Energy helps people meet their basic needs - Desire for better quality of life drives further energy use • Can demonstrate this by looking at indices used to measure quality of life: • Human Development Index (United Nations) • Well-being Index (Robert Prescott-Allen)

17. Energy Use and Quality of Life • For the world’s very poorest people, who use little energy, even a very small increase in energy consumption has significant impacts on value of Human Development Index (HDI) • Above a certain level, even very large increases in energy use have NO impact

18. Per Capita Energy Use and Human Development Index (HDI) 1.0 0.8 0.6 Value of HDI Estimated HDI 0.4 or Calculated Actual HDI 0.2 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10 000 Per Capita Energy Consumption (KOE/H) Note: Data for 100 developed and developing countries. Source: Suarez (1995)

19. Sweden 10 1 United Arab Emirates 2 173 Energy Use and Quality of Life Per Capita Energy Use Rank** Share of Sweden’s Per Capita Energy Use (%) Well-being Rank* Nation Sweden 100 100 1 10 112 Finland 2 6 104 Norway 3 8 61 Austria 5 26 70 Japan 24 19 140 United States 27 4 71 Russian Federation 65 17 162 Kuwait 119 3 190 190 United Arab Emirates 173 2 0 100 * Out of 180 countries. ** Based on total primary energy supply.

20. Austria 26 5 United States 4 27 Energy Use and Quality of Life Per Capita Energy Use Rank** Share of Sweden’s Per Capita Energy Use (%) Well-being Rank* Nation Sweden 100 1 10 112 Finland 2 6 104 Norway 3 8 61 61 Austria 5 26 70 Japan 24 19 140 140 United States 27 4 71 Russian Federation 65 17 162 Kuwait 119 3 190 United Arab Emirates 173 2 0 100 * Out of 180 countries. ** Based on total primary energy supply.

21. Example:Rising costs of transportation - Traffic fatalities - Pollution and resulting health problems - Congestion (lost time) - Costs of road transport estimated to start at 5% of GDP for industrial countries, and go even higher in some developing countries Energy Use and Quality of Life • In fact, the way we produce and use energy degrades our quality of life through environmental, social, economic, and security impacts

22. Waste Less and Conserve Energy • Only 28% of energy consumed worldwide converts to useful energy • Yet efficient technologies that provide same services with less energy already exist • Pursue all options for energy savings Shift Energy Sources • Increase the share of energy that comes from renewable sources, like solar and wind 4. Forging a Different Path

23. Two Types of Choice for Change • Societal • through government policies • Family/Individual • within constraints imposed by availability and affordability, we all make choices about what to buy and how to use it

24. Example:European governments tax cars and gas more heavily, and invest more in public transit Result:Europeans on average own fewer, smaller, more efficient cars than Americans, and use them less Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Pricing Policies: • Taxes, subsidies, and infrastructure investments help to determine energy prices

25. Example:Subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power remain many magnitudes higher than those for renewable energy and efficiency Result:Deceptively low energy prices that drive over-consumption and discourage the use of clean, sustainable alternatives Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Pricing Policies: • Also affect choices about energy sources

26. Example:California state building codes updated regularly, based on best available technologies Result:California buildings far more efficient than US average Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Appliance and Building Standards: • They drive manufacturers to produce more energy-efficient products

27. Example:Several countries require manufacturers to take back their products at the end of their useful life, for reuse or recycling Result: Companies involved in disassembly and recycling of their goods; improved quality and lifetime of products Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Take-Back Laws: • They reduce the amount of energy embodied in products we use

28. Green Power • More people are opting for renewable energy sources Living Car Free • Shifting reliance from personal cars to public transit, cycling, walking, and car sharing programs Green Buildings • Recycled and efficient materials, natural lighting and cooling, superior insulation, PVs, rooftop gardens Making Better Energy Choices: Individual Choices

29. Purchase items made from recycled materials • Ex.: Producing aluminum out of recycled material requires 95% less energy than making it from raw material Replace your 5 most-used light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs • If every U.S. household did this, more than 20 large power plants could be shut down Other Ways to Save Energy

30. Buy the most energy efficient appliances and vehicles available when replacing old ones • In the U.S., look for the “Energy Star” label Conserve energy by… • Turning off lights and appliances when not in use • Buying fewer items • Installing low-flow showerheads Other Ways to Save Energy

31. Making Better Energy Choices • Options and technologies are available to produce and use energy in a more sustainable manner, while maintaining a high quality of life • Forging a more sustainable energy path is a matter of our everyday choices and political will to enact the right policies

32. About the Author Janet Sawin is a Senior Researcher at the Worldwatch Institute

33. More information on State of the World 2004 at www.worldwatch.org