Urban Air Quality Modelling with AURORA: Prague and Bratislava

1. Emissions 6km resolution Europe TNO MACC inventory Urban Air Quality Modelling with AURORA: Prague and Bratislava N. Veldeman, P. Viaene, K. De Ridder, W. Peelaerts, D. Lauwaet, N. Muhammad, L. Blyth PASODOBLE Air Quality Modelling Chain Abstract AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach) is a prognostic 3-D Eulerian chemistry-transport model, designed to simulate urban- to regional-scale atmospheric pollutant concentration and exposure fields [1]. AURORA is currently being applied within the Public Forecasting and Assessment Service line of the FP7 project PASODOBLE as part of the GMES Monitoring system for Environment and Security [2]. At present there are two operational AURORA services within PASODOBLE. Within the “Air quality forecast service” : daily air quality forecasts for the major Belgian cities, and for Prague, Czech Republic and Bratislava, Slovakia, are being provided. The “Urban/regional air quality assessment service” provides urban- and regional-scale maps (hourly resolution) for air pollution statistics for an entire year. So far we concentrated on Brussels, Belgium and the Rotterdam harbour area, The Netherlands. LOTOS-EUROS surface NO2 average, 19 april 2011, TNO [3] NOx 2005 emissionsEurope, TNO ECMWF ERA-40 2 metretemperaturefor August 1st 2002; in forecasts, NRT - ECMWF data is used. NOx 2008 emissions Bratislava, VITO Air Quality Forecast Results Bratislava – NO2 daily average Prague – O3 daily average <O3> daily in µg/m³ NO2 Forecast February 12th O3 Forecast February 12th d0 (Feb 12) d1 (Feb 13) d2 (Feb 14) d0 (Feb 12) d1 (Feb 13) d2 (Feb 14) O3 Forecast February 13th NO2 Forecast February 13th <NO2> daily in µg/m³ d0 (Feb 13) d1 (Feb 14) d2 (Feb 15) d0 (Feb 13) d1 (Feb 14) d2 (Feb 15) O3 Forecast February 14th NO2 Forecast February 14th d0 (Feb 14) d1 (Feb 15) d2 (Feb 16) d0 (Feb 14) d1 (Feb 15) d2 (Feb 16) Validation Conclusions • For bothcities: validation of time series • Measurement data • Modelled data • Measurement data obtained via localauthorities • Bratislava: SHMU (Jana Krajčovičová) • Prague: URM (Kazmuková Mária) and • CHMI (Vlcek Ondrej) • Example: • NO2 time series in Mamateyova, Bratislava • Measured data versus day 0, day 1, and day 2 • forecast AURORA is currently being applied within the Public Forecasting and Assessment Service line of PASODOBLE. For Bratislava and Prague, forecast services are providing daily forecasts of NO2, O3, and PM10 at a 1x1 km² resolution. Validation of the results reveals that trends in time are for all pollutants relatively well captured by the model. For NO2 and O3, also absolute concentrations are fitting well with the measurements. For PM10, a systematic underestimation is observed. Currently, AURORA model results are being improved by integration of (more) local emission data. References: [1] Mensink C., De Ridder K., Lewyckyj N., Delobbe L., Janssen L., Van Haver P., 2001. Computational aspects of air quality modelling in urban regions using an optimal resolution approach (AURORA). Large-scale scientific computing – lecture notes in computer science, 2179, 299-308; [2] PASODOBLE is a collaborative project, funded under the FP7 programme, http://www.myair-eu.org; [3] The LOTOS-EUROS is a regional chemical transport model (CTM) built, maintained, and continuously improved by developers and researchers at TNO, RIVM, KNMI and PBL, http://www.lotos-euros.nl/doc/documentation.htm.