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A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation

A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation. Results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed -in. 22 th June 2011 | Katharina Grave, Moritz Paulus, Dr. Dietmar Lindenberger. Definition: Security of Supply.

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A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation

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  1. A methodologytoestimatesecurityofsupply in electricitygeneration Resultsfor Germany until 2030 given a highlevelofintermittentelectricityfeed-in • 22th June 2011 | Katharina Grave, Moritz Paulus, Dr. Dietmar Lindenberger

  2. Definition: Security ofSupply • reliability: the ability of the electric system to withstand sudden disturbances • firmness: the ability of the already installed facilities to supply electricity • capacity adequacy: ability of the electric system to supply the aggregated electrical demand and energy requirements of costumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system elements • AdequacyofSupply | 22th June 2011

  3. The probabilityof power cuts • Technical data on non-availabilityof different technologies: • Independent probabilities • Historical dataabout wind speedandgeographicaldistribution: • Correlatedprobabilities Combinationbystochasticconvolutionshowstheadequacyofsupplyfor an existing power plant fleet

  4. Probabilityfunctionsforelectricitygeneration

  5. Future adequacy: Short term Evaluation ofannouncedprojects: • Fromannouncementtostartofproduction ~ fiveyears • Probabilityofrealisationriseswithstageofproject Announcedproject ApprovalProcedure Construction Generation

  6. Future adequacy: longterm Input Output • Total Power demand • Exogenousfeed-in • Residual Load • Commissioninganddecommissioningof power plant technologies • Installedcapacities • Fixed and variable generationcosts Demand Investment • Existinggenerationcapacity • Additional comissioningofnewcapacity • Technical andeconmicparametersofnewtechnologies • Fuel prices • Net transfercapacities • Gridlosses DIME Linear optimizationforcompetetivemarkets • Annual power generationstructure • Power plant dispatch • Physicalexchange • Marginal costsofproduction • Fuel consumption • CO2emissions Supply Dispatch

  7. Short-termadditionstothe power plant fleet

  8. Power plant fleetuntil 2030

  9. Securedcapacity in 2030

  10. Electricity Generation

  11. Conclusions • Bigger power plant fleets do not necessarilyguaranteesecurityofsupply • In theshorttermadequacyofsupplyisgiven in Germany – also withoutnuclear power plants in 2022

  12. Thankyouforyourattention. • AdequacyofSupply | 22th June 2011

  13. The Exampleof Germany

  14. RES-E in Germany

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