Safe operating spaces for regional rural development

1. Safe operating spaces for regional rural development John Dearing Geography and Environment UN Development Information Day 24th October2012

2. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION HUMAN DEPRIVATION Raworth 2012

3. DEPRIVATION AND DEGRADATION Can we devise a tool that allows us to plan for sustainable development within safe environmental limits? Land-water conflicts Food price crises Raworth 2012

4. Planetary Safe Operating Spaces Abrupt changes Humanity has already exceeded safe limits for biodiversity, nitrogen cycle and climate…..idea based on typology of ‘abrupt changes’ or ‘tipping points’………. Scheffer et al 2001 Nature 413, 591- 596 Rockström et al 2009 Nature 461, 472-475

5. Nine planetary boundaries http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/policy/safe-and-just-space-humanity Raworth 2012

6. Living in a doughnut- a safe and just space for humanity Raworth 2012

7. Falling far below the social foundation Raworth 2012

8. How to combine these together at regional scales? Use socio-economic records and national/international norms to set ‘social foundation’ But how to set regional boundaries for biophysical conditions?

9. How to define a regional boundary? y a Background state Regional boundary Distance from background Rate change (1st derivative) Undesirable state Boundary = x times background Boundary = dy/dt Maximum limit b Normal variability Minimum limit Boundary = x times variability (z score units) c Increasing variability Boundary = rising variance/skewness/autocorrelation d State 1 Threshold/fold bifurcation/alternative states State 2 Boundary = threshold condition/ tipping point Safe operating space t Cautious operating space Dangerous operating space Dearing et al unpub.

10. ESPA Yangtze Nanjing Shanghai Can we define a regional safe operating space that defines biophysical boundaries for sustainable economic development? 250 km

11. Lower Yangtze basin: provisioning and regulating services 1900-2010 Lake sediment records-regulating services Trade-off between agricultural intensification and ecological degradation Evidence for improved regulating services since 2000 as provisioning services decline Official statistical records-provisioning services Dearing et al 2012 PNAS Zhang et al in manuscript

12. Lower Yangtze basin: early warning signals of lake ecosystem collapse Tipping point passed early1990s No obvious single driving force Normalized value Early warning may be possible for other lakes that are not nutrient enriched Rising variance from the 1960s Standard deviation Zhang et al in manuscript Wang et al 2012 Nature Rising variance from 1960s

13. ‘Poverty stricken’ Shucheng County Social foundation nearly reached, except sanitation Environmental ceiling exceeded for water quality, soil stability and air quality Potential conflict between the needs for new sanitation measures and treatment of existing water Can food demands from growing urban areas be met locally? Ke Zhang 2012

14. Conclusions Creation of ‘Safe and just operating spaces at regional scales’ are feasible but more research needed to assess biophysical boundaries; Long environmental records allow assessment of ‘limits’, ‘boundaries’, ‘tipping points’ In Chinese studies, lake sediment records are particularly useful for showing early warning signals of lake ecosystem collapses; Thanks to everybody at the Safe Operating Spaces workshop, especially Kate Raworth, Ke Zhang and Rong Wang. Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA), Evidence and Impacts Research Grant programme ‘Safe operating spaces for regional rural development: a new conceptual tool for evaluating complex socio-ecological system dynamics’; Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA), Programme Framework Grant‘Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach’ (NERC project no. NE/I002960/1); International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Directorate IPO, Stockholm.