HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE

1. HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE • Agenda: • Putting perturber and the perturbed in perspective • Mechanisms for human activity - lasting global change connection • Our recent magnificent achievement • More difficult task ahead • Concluding remarks In olden days we had to watch our activities for only temporarylocal scale pollution. Now we, human being, have become a force that may produce lasting change on global scale! Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

2. HUMAN BEINGS ARE MINISCULE RELATIVE TO THE EARTH SYSTEM Earth ~ 6x1024 kg Ocean ~ 1.4x1021 Atmosphere ~ 5.3x1018 Biosphere ~ 5.6x1016 Humans ~ 6 x1011 Masses (kg) of highly significant trace gases CO2 ~ 1.6x1015 ; O3 ~ 8.7x1012 ; N2O ~ 1.5x1012; CH4 ~ 5.2x1012 Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

3. THE TRACE GASES (O3, CO2, CH4, N2O) HAVE VERY IMPORTANT ROLES Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

4. ABSORPTION OF SOLAR ENERGY BY O2 AND O3 IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE BIOSPHERE It protects the biosphere from harmful ultra violet Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

5. THE TRACE GASES (O3, CO2, CH4, N2O) SERVE AS GREENHOUSE GASES AND KEEP THE EARTH LIVABLE Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

6. Despite being miniscule (10-13) relative to the Earth system, human can cause lasting and global change if our activities: increase greenhouse gases (that have long lifetimes) change the stratospheric ozone (that provides UV shield over biosphere) Following slides show that both are not only possible but are either happening or have happened HUMAN ACTIVITIES - GLOBAL CHANGE CONNECTION IS NOW UNDERSTANDABLE Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

7. Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

8. CO2 IS BIOSPHERICALLY REGULATED AND IS PRONE TO ANTHROPOGENIC PERTURBATION Amountstoredin:billionsoftons 1. Atmosphere 2,300 2. Oceans 130,000 3. Earth (mostly in fossil fuels) 40,000 Yearlyfluxbillionsoftons/yr 1.From biosphere to atmosphere (respiration and decay of organic material) 60 2. From atmosphere to biosphere (photosynthesis) 60 3. From oceans to atmosphere 100 4. From atmosphere to oceans 100 5. Into atmosphere from Earth’s interior (volcanoes, hot springs) 0.1 6. Into new fossils within earth <0.1 7. Into atmosphere through human’s combustion of fuels 6 8. Into atmosphere from newly cultivated soil 2 Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

9. ATMOSPHERIC N2O IS SIMILAR TO CO2 Estimated Sources of N2O (TgN/yr) Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

10. STRATOSPHERIC OZONE IS PHOTOCHEMICAL IN ORIGIN BUT IS REGULATED BY GASES OF ANTHROPOGENIC ORIGIN Pristine pre-biological Atmosphere O2 + solar UV(<200nm)  O + O O + O2 + M  O3 +M O3 + UV (200-300 nm)  O + O* O3 + O  O2 + O2 Pre- & post-industrial present times O* + H2O  OH + OH O* + N2O  NO + NO NO + O3  NO2 + O2 NO2 + O  NO + O2 O + O3 O2 + O2(Catalytic cycle) Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

11. MORE EXAMPLES OF REGULATION BY GASES OF ANTHROPOGENIC ORIGIN Cycle 2: Cl + O3 ClO + O2 OH + O3  HO2 + O2 ClO + HO2  HOCl + OH HOCl + solar radiation  OH + Cl Net: 2O3  3O2 Cycle 3: Cl + O3  ClO + O2 ClO + NO  Cl + NO2 NO2 + O  NO + O2 Net: O + O3  O2 + O2 Cycle termination: ClO + NO2  ClONO2; HO2+ Cl  HCl + O2 CFC + solar UV  Cl CH3Cl + solar UV  CH3 + Cl Cycle 1: Cl + O3  ClO + O2 ClO + O  Cl + O2 Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

12. MORE COMPLEX REACTIONS LEAD TO OZONE HOLE IN THE SPRING TIME POLAR REGIONS Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

13. OUR RESPONSE TO OZONE HOLE WAS MAGNI-FICIENT: WHAT ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING? Year Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

14. GLOBAL WARMING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SERIOUS CONCEQUENCES Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

15. MANAGING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT • climate-friendly technologies, commonly referred (Technology Cooperation) • practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sinks (Land Use and Forestry management changes) Both affect energy that is so fundamental to our society—it powers our homes, businesses, and industries (“bread and butter situation) No wonder implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to control greenhouse gas emission is proving so much more difficult than the Montreal agreement Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico

16. CONCLUDING REMARK • Setting aside current fierce debate over seriousness of global warming, sooner or later we have to face the challenge of doing without fossil fuels • The hope is that we will do it sooner rather than later and thereby be prepared for “what if global warming turned out to be serious?” At current consumption rate (~4.7 Btons/yr), it will last about 230yrs. Then what? Creative Research Enterprises’ Presentation Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico