1 / 10

Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need

Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need. James T. Kvach, Ph.D. Defense Intelligence Agency Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center Ft. Detrick, Maryland. Why the Interest & Need?. Operational Force health protection Policy Crisis management Acquisition

kayo
Download Presentation

Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need James T. Kvach, Ph.D. Defense Intelligence Agency Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center Ft. Detrick, Maryland

  2. Why the Interest & Need? • Operational • Force health protection • Policy • Crisis management • Acquisition • Forecasts

  3. Disease Risks -- Recurring Impact P E R C E N T U.S. ARMY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS DURING WAR Responsible for 2 of 3 U.S. Wartime Hospital Admissions

  4. INTENSITY OF CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF DEPLOYMENT FREQUENCY OF BATTLE CASUALTIES PROBABILITY OF DNBI * MISSION REGIONAL WARFIGHTING MODERATE LOW HIGH HIGH COUNTERDRUG OPERATIONS HIGH LOW HIGH LOW PEACEKEEPING LOW LOW HIGH HIGH HUMANITARIAN NONE HIGH NONE HIGH New Roles and Missions *WITHOUT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE COUNTERMEASURES

  5. Civilian Health Care Status

  6. Civilian Health Care & Nation Building/Failure • How to advise? • Where can you • make a difference?

  7. Evolving Defense Strategy Health Protection Implications • Unfamiliar/Hostile Environments • Infectious Disease & Environmental Risks • Multinational Task Force Alignments • Medical Support Capabilities • Disease Prevalence • Reduced Military Health Services Footprint • Reliance on Host Nation Support • Food and Water • Medical Care/Support and Pharmaceuticals • Short- and Long-Term Health and Liability Concerns

  8. Modeling Focus • Disease spread • National • Regional • International • Conditions for outbreaks • Disease control nodes

  9. Defense Intelligence View Behavior Infectious Disease Individual Militarily Relevant Group Humanitarian Societal Economic

  10. Ideal Model • Country/disease neutral • Tailorable • Real time data • Predictive • Control nodes • Crisis management/analytical tool • National, regional, international • capable

More Related