Run Cao School of Information Renmin University of China

1. Stock Price Forecasting with Support Vector Machines based on Web Financial Information Sentiment Analysis Run Cao School of Information Renmin University of China

2. Agenda • Background & Research Question • Related work • Model and Method • Analysis of The experimental results • Conclusion & Discussion

3. Background & Research Question • The financial market has always been a research hotspot, and stock price forecasting has been considered the most difficult challenges in the time series prediction. • Data intensive • Noisy • Dynamic • Unstructured • High degree of uncertainty • Rapid development of communication technology and the Internet, people can access to the stock news and reviews through the Internet anytime, anywhere. • Internet could cover other channels, financial Internet information play an important role in the financial markets.

4. Background & Research Question • According to the efficient market hypothesis, the financial information has an important impact on the financial market volatility. • The information has two dimensions characteristics: • information volume • information sentiment--the information sentiment analysis has become an important topic of natural language processing and machine intelligence field. • In the financial markets, information sentiment is an important indicator reflecting the opinions and emotions of investors and traders • Previous studies have shown that Internet financial information volume and stock market volatility are closely related

5. Related work Stock Price Forecasting Industry Fundamental analysis; Technical analysis; Academia Statistical methods: linear regression prediction, polynomial regression prediction, ARMA modeling, GARCH modeling; Machine learning method: Artificial Neural Networks, Support vector machine, Markov model, fuzzy network ;

6. Related work-Text sentiment analysis • Text sentiment analysis, also known as Opinion Mining; • For example, by automatically analyzing the text content of the comments of a commodity, we can get the consumer’s attitudes and opinions of the goods. • The application field of sentiment analysis: • user comments analysis • decision-making • monitoring public opinion • information prediction • Text sentiment analysis is mainly from two aspects: • sentimental knowledge-based approach; • the method based on feature classification;

7. 3 Model and Method • The framework of the overall project

8. The calculation of Financial News sentimental value • The sentiment of financial text corresponds to the tendency of the attitude embodied in the text, i.e., bullish, bearish or neutral, and the financial text intensity reflects the influence of the text. • High intensity of the text has a greater influence on financial markets, on the contrary, the low intensity of the text for the influence of the financial market is relatively weak. • A sentimental value that is calculated according to a financial text, then the positive and negative symbols of the value means bullish bearish or neutral, while the absolute value represent the intensity of the text.

9. The calculation of Financial News sentimental value • In the experiment, we use the algorithm Nan Li and Desheng Dash Wu proposed in 2010[26], the text sentiment algorithm based on Hownet sentiment dictionary. • Assume that the current Financial News p, first conduct the segmentation tool to convert it into a sequence constituted by the word, that is, {w1, w2, w3, …wn}, the number of total words is n, on each one the wi(i=1, 2, 3,…n) to calculate an sentimental value of vi, then the sentimental value of the entire Financial News p is the sum of all the words sentimental value.

10. In the experiment, we randomly selected three stocks in the Growth Enterprise Market in China Toread (300005) Hanwei Electronics (300007), Huayi Brothers (300027),. • We have a Financial News crawler to get Financial News data, which is supported by Internet Financial Intelligence Laboratory, School of Information, Renmin University of China.

11. Stock price information processing • We obtained the transaction data and historical prices of three stocks from Yahoo Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com.cn), Huayi Brothers (300027) increase in shares in 2010, doubling the total share capital, we need to multiplex the right to calculate the actual price.

12. P = (opening price + closing price + highest price + lowest price) / 4). • Financial news and stock prices are divided into a time window, we use three-day sliding window to predict the fourth day of the price. • Toread (300005) a total of 370 groups (Pt-2, Pt-1, Pt,Pt+1) data, t = 1, 2, 3 ..., 370. • Hanwei Electronics (300007) 336 group(Pt-2, Pt-1, Pt,Pt+1) the data, t = 1, 2, 3 ..., 336. • Huayi Brothers (300027) a total of 262 groups(Pt-2, Pt-1, Pt,Pt+1) data, t = 1, 2, 3 ..., 262. • Use prediction models for a prediction, that is, input the relevant data during T, T-1, T-2 to forecast the stock priceT+1, and then compare the predict values to actual values, analysis the forecasting results.

13. Data preprocessing • The format requirements of Libsvm training data collection is：<label><index1>:<value1><index2>:<value2> ... . • <label>is the target value of the training data set, for regression it could be any real number.In our experiments,<label>column is the stock price of the next time period. <index> is an integer from 1, may not be continuous. <value> is the value of predictors, or value of explanatory variables. • First, we will converted the data to the format required by the above Libsvm, and use the scale Toolbox provided by Libsvmto make each factor data fall into [-1, 1] interval. • Selected training samples in accordance with the training set: test set for the ratio of 4:5,to select 4/5 of all the data as a training set.

14. Group experiments • Here we use the SVM regression function to exploit the relationship between financial news sentiments and stock prices of financial markets, take Libsvm as the experimental tool. • We designed four sets of three-day sliding window SVM prediction comparative experiment. • Experiment 1: As shown in Table 1, use the stock price the data of previous three days to forecast the stock price of t+1. • Experiment 2: based on Experiment 1, add the corresponding daily number of stock news as the exogenous variables. • Experiment 3: based on Experiment 1, add the corresponding stock news sentimental value of the day. • Experiment 4: adding corresponding daily number of stock news and stock news sentimental value at the same time based on Experiment 1.

15. Calculate the evaluation score • We use the following statistical indicators to evaluate the prediction results: • mean square error (MSE) • the standardized mean square error (NMSE) • mean absolute error (MAE) • multiple correlation coefficients (SCC) • the direction of symmetry (DS) • weighted direction symmetry (WDS) • correct upward trend (CP • correct downward trend (CD)

16. Analysis of The experimental results • The results data display the performance of the training set and test set in the four groups of experiments. • With the increase and change in the input data, the evaluation index has more excellent performance, the accuracy of prediction has been gradually increasing, and this is more evident in the results of the training data set.

18. Discussion • The results indicate that information sentimental value is more influential than information volume on stock price forecasting. • Comparing to the experiment with one dimensional data, the result from the experiment combined information volume and information sentimental value is more accurate. • Improved the existing training and forecasting model. The learning ability of Support Vector Machines is to obtain information from data, by using time window, using more historical data to predict, it can carry more fully information. • Provides a more accurate stock price forecasting method for investors, which enable them manage investment and risk more efficiently in financial market.

19. limitations • The sentimental computing is the opinion analysis of online information. The information we use the still is mainly based on news, the trend now is Micro-blogging and other social media has become a generally accepted the opinions platform, use the sentimental value of portal news to represent the overall sentimental is not comprehensive enough. • In order to get more effectively and accurately predict and analysis, we need to analyze finance-related government departments, companies, social media, financial experts and commentators, even the opinions of all shareholders in the future work.

20. Thank You !