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Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS

“ Getting the right message to the customer” Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Mobile, Alabama, March 23, 2006. Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge New Orleans/Baton Rouge 62300 Airport Road

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Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS

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  1. “Getting the right message to the customer” Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Mobile, Alabama, March 23, 2006 Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge New Orleans/Baton Rouge 62300 Airport Road Slidell, Louisiana 70460-5243 Paul.Trotter@noaa.gov www.srh.noaa.gov/lix (985) 649-0357x222 fax (985) 649-2907 Stamp developed by FreddieZeigler. Most photos from NOAA/NWS, Times Picayune and Sun Herald.

  2. Environment… sea level elevation, lots of water inclusive of Gulf off Mexico, Tidal Lakes, Mississippi Rivers, canals, bayous, railroads, bridges, and levees. Economics… almost 100 petro-chemical plants along MS RVR from NEW to BTR New Orleans is one of the U.S.’s most important ports. Houses much of the nations fuel and fish products. The area hosts large federal complexes and large casino industry. Preparations: President’s Hurricane Week, NOAA Hurricane Hunter Tours, Various Hurricane Exercises, Past and Historical Storms, and In-house Retrofits.

  3. Storm Surge Susceptibility

  4. IVAN EVACUATION CHOKE POINTS I-10 EB I-10 EB to I-12 WB I-12 Alternate LA 434 to I-10 I-10 WB I-10/I-12 Merge 5 to 2 Lane Merge I-10 EB & WB 3 to 2 Lane Merge I-10 East I-510 to Miss. Via I-59 I-10 West US 51 to Loyola

  5. PHASED EVACUATION

  6. Size of storm influences storm surgeHurricane Charley Storm Surge with different size wind field

  7. Katrina vs Camille • Katrina was much larger • Radius of Maximum Wind (~eye) - 40 miles vs 7 miles • Slightly different angle of attack • Deep storm surge over larger area. Our reference to Camille in our products proved critical.

  8. What Made Katrina So Damaging • Unusual combination of powerful intensity and large dimension • Category 5 Hurricane in the mid Gulf on Sunday Aug 28 – max wind 175 mph. • Hurricane force winds extended 90 to 100 miles east of the center. • Hurricane weakened as it moved ashore but the wind field remained very large • Large wind field contributed to powerful storm surge over wide area. • Contribution of large wave development offshore prior to landfall also a factor. • 55 ft wave ht recorded

  9. History repeating itself?????? In the early 1900s, African Americans were held on levees at gun point to assist in fighting floods. Did we get the right message to the “nth” person? Social Problems?… Yes, this happens in America. Katrina spared no one and crossed America’s social and economic borders. Over 60% of the deaths in Louisiana were said to be people over 76 years old! What message? What sirens? What flyers? What enhanced partnerships? .

  10. Although many evacuated (1.2million or more in Louisiana and Mississippi) and were safely sheltered (as many as 25,000 in the Superdome), the death toll for the area was approximately 1300 people (estimated 2000 more have been reported missing). This is unacceptable. NOAA/NWS has to get the message to the “nth” person to get the ultimate goal of no deaths. Over 6,000 homes in the city of Biloxi were leveled. Over 280,000 LA area homes were damaged or destroyed (Katrina and one month later with Rita in LA…28,000 in Andrew). Nearly 5000 boats were lost impacting property and the fishing industry.

  11. Internally, individuals met destiny and relationships do matter! Keith DeArmas makes major retrofit for several NOAA NWS Coastal Offices (LCH, MOB, and NEW), the barter system at its best, Robert Ricks meets Brian Williams of NBC post storm demonstrating NOAA/NWS at its best, and Jake Herty is found, safe, and sound. The right message was posted internally. Could employee meeting destiny and making bonding relationships helped to get the message out?

  12. A Great Relationship! Barter system at its best!

  13. Brian Williams interest in weather helped. Robert Ricks, Senior Meteorologist and N.O. native, tells the story. Relationships matter!

  14. RELATIONSHIPS MATTER! Mr. Coleman held his store open to ensure NOAA/NWS met our mission delivery… aiding the nation’s economy, being wise environmental stewards, saving life and property!

  15. This picture says it all. Jake Herty, III, with Jake Herty, Jr. receiving his 35 year Federal Service Award while being group briefed by Glen Covert and Marsha Nolan (Employees Assistance Program). Jake, a New Orleans native, was the lone local NWS employee unaccounted for during Katrina.

  16. Final Thoughts • Katrina combined powerful intensity over a large area to produce a devastating impact to residents of Louisiana and Mississippi. • Storm surge once again proved to be the hurricane’s most deadly agent in areas of low lying terrain • Hurricane forecasts are improving…however errors in forecasted landfall location and intensity will continue. • Upcoming Season….NOAA/NWS will issue an initial outlook for 2006 Hurricane Season in May. • Hurricane preparedness is a year round activity in an area of high frequency of hurricane activity such as southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. • The question remains, “What is the rightmessage?”

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